For most of the day the trend was to keep this thing just as a wave and have it stay down around the Bay of Campechee (sp?), but now it seems that it may develop into something and move northward into the Gulf. Three of the models take it along the Northern Gulf Coast, ranging from a New Orleans to a Panama City landfall--just as I am preparing to come down for two weeks on the 15th!
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2006060700&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Replies
90
brainAuthor
Re: Trouble in the Tropics...
Let me say that no one is stating that it will be a hurricane, SSts are in the upper 80s from what I have heard on The Weather Channel, so it may just be a storm or even just a depression. We could sure use the rain from it around the South though.
Let me say that no one is stating that it will be a hurricane, SSts are in the upper 80s from what I have heard on The Weather Channel, so it may just be a storm or even just a depression. We could sure use the rain from it around the South though.
brainAuthor
Re: Trouble in the Tropics...
Looks like we will have Tropical Storm "Alberto" in the Gulf by early to mid-week.
Looks like we will have Tropical Storm "Alberto" in the Gulf by early to mid-week.
SoWal Expert
brainAuthor
Re: Trouble in the Tropics...
Thanks for those links SJ. Dr. Steve Lyons on TWC says that is will most likely move towards Tampa, bringing beneficial rains to the penisular areas of FL. We could sure use some of that rain here in GA.
Thanks for those links SJ. Dr. Steve Lyons on TWC says that is will most likely move towards Tampa, bringing beneficial rains to the penisular areas of FL. We could sure use some of that rain here in GA.
Admin
Re: Trouble in the Tropics...
Really blowing up.
Really blowing up.
fishlips
Re: Trouble in the Tropics...
oh, dear...here we go again
remember sowal member tropicwatch at http://megaopps.8m.com/tropicwatch.html
oh, dear...here we go again
remember sowal member tropicwatch at http://megaopps.8m.com/tropicwatch.html
Beach Fanatic
SoWal Expert
Re: Trouble in the Tropics...
...and
...and
SoWal Insider
Re: Trouble in the Tropics...
I guess it's better now than later when storms are likely to be stronger. We do need the rain. I guess our plans to evacuate to Gainesville (also in path) or SoWal (house rented) might need some tweaking.
I bought extra supplies this morning! ;-)
Thanks for those links SJ. Dr. Steve Lyons on TWC says that is will most likely move towards Tampa, bringing beneficial rains to the penisular areas of FL. We could sure use some of that rain here in GA.
I guess it's better now than later when storms are likely to be stronger. We do need the rain. I guess our plans to evacuate to Gainesville (also in path) or SoWal (house rented) might need some tweaking.
I bought extra supplies this morning! ;-)SoWal Insider
Re: Trouble in the Tropics...
I heart wunderground.
Too bad champion blogger Jeff Masters is on vacation. :roll:
Also, don't forget:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
I heart wunderground.
Too bad champion blogger Jeff Masters is on vacation. :roll:
SoWal Insider
Re: Trouble in the Tropics...
A test run for those seawalls?
A test run for those seawalls?
Beach Fanatic
Re: Trouble in the Tropics...
Jeff Masters is the best. He provides factual info from someone who knows the topic intimately. And more importantly, he can speculate intelligently without being sensational. He called the need to evacuate New Orleans on Tues or Wed, if I recall correctly. I've been enjoying his series excerpting his recent interview in the Ft. Walton paper.
Too bad champion blogger Jeff Masters is on vacation.
Jeff Masters is the best. He provides factual info from someone who knows the topic intimately. And more importantly, he can speculate intelligently without being sensational. He called the need to evacuate New Orleans on Tues or Wed, if I recall correctly. I've been enjoying his series excerpting his recent interview in the Ft. Walton paper.
Beach Fanatic
Re: Trouble in the Tropics...
That interview is published on the web site I noticed.
Jeff Masters is the best. He provides factual info from someone who knows the topic intimately. And more importantly, he can speculate intelligently without being sensational. He called the need to evacuate New Orleans on Tues or Wed, if I recall correctly. I've been enjoying his series excerpting his recent interview in the Ft. Walton paper.
That interview is published on the web site I noticed.
SoWal Insider
Re: Trouble in the Tropics...
Wish we could get some rain from it. But it looks as if it is not going to be coming up our direction. Pooh!
Wish we could get some rain from it. But it looks as if it is not going to be coming up our direction. Pooh!
little sugar
Beach Fanatic
Re: Trouble in the Tropics...
TD One, please go east...we need the rain, but I don't need to be driving through you on my way back to SoWal on Tuesday... :roll:
TD One, please go east...we need the rain, but I don't need to be driving through you on my way back to SoWal on Tuesday... :roll:Beach Fanatic
Re: Trouble in the Tropics...
Now reached tropical storm status. We could use a little rain, but our beaches cannot take a pounding!
Now reached tropical storm status. We could use a little rain, but our beaches cannot take a pounding!
SoWal Expert
Re: Trouble in the Tropics...
Yep, it is official -- Tropical Storm Alberto has formed.
Yep, it is official -- Tropical Storm Alberto has formed.
Admin
Re: Trouble in the Tropics...
At least it looks like it will stay to the east which means Alberto won't take out all our walkovers like Arlene did. What a mess.
http://www.sowal.com/photos-061105.html
http://www.sowal.com/photos-061205.html
At least it looks like it will stay to the east which means Alberto won't take out all our walkovers like Arlene did. What a mess.
http://www.sowal.com/photos-061105.html
http://www.sowal.com/photos-061205.html
SoWal Insider
What are they showing the wind speed at now? I know it had to be at 39mph to be given a name.
SoWal Expert
What are they showing the wind speed at now? I know it had to be at 39mph to be given a name.The map on post # 9 is a link, so it remains updated. Windspeed is in the top right corner.
Beach Crab
For those interested in watching live surf.
http://www.hipcbeach.com/rickandbubba/rnb_cam.htm
I know it's PCB but it should give everyone a clear live picture of what the surf is doing.
We are scheduled to come down on the 18th so I'm keeping a close eye on this thing. It seems to look like there are several other storms lining up behind this one.
http://www.hipcbeach.com/rickandbubba/rnb_cam.htm
I know it's PCB but it should give everyone a clear live picture of what the surf is doing.
We are scheduled to come down on the 18th so I'm keeping a close eye on this thing. It seems to look like there are several other storms lining up behind this one.
Beach Fanatic
This is good news. Jeff Masters is back from vacation:
Posted by: JeffMasters, 11:12 AM EDT on June 11, 2006
Well, I'm back to blogging on the hurricane season of 2006 earlier than I had hoped. We managed to put together a string of nine straight days without an active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic this hurricane season, but now that streak has come to an end with the formation of Tropical Storm Alberto. I scheduled my summer vacation for the period I though most likely to have ten straight days without tropical activity, but the tropics had other ideas.
Alberto is a fairly typical-looking June tropical storm. The satellite presentation is not very impressive this morning, with most of the deep convection lying to the east of the exposed center. Strong westerly winds associated with the subtropical jet stream are removing the deep convection from the center. This wind shear is creating a very hostile environment for Alberto to survive in, let alone strengthen. With the shear forecast to strengthen, I would not be surprised to see Alberto ripped apart tonight. If this scenario does occur, the low level swirl of clouds associated with Alberto's core will drift into the center of the Gulf of Mexico and gradually decay. The main moisture to the east of the center will separate and get pulled across Florida. If Alberto manages to survive, a strong trough of low pressure moving over the Eastern U.S. will recurve the storm over Central and Northern Florida, where Alberto will rapidly lose tropical characteristics and become a very rainy low pressure system. Alberto currently has tropical storm force winds of 40-45 mph in a very small area to the northeast of the center. The central pressure has actually risen 2 mb to 1004 mb since 7 am EDT this morning, proving that this is not a healthy tropical storm. I give Alberto a less than 5% chance of making hurricane status. It is far more likely (40% chance) that Alberto will get torn apart by high wind shear before making landfall on Florida's west coast. The most likely scenario is that Alberto will hit the west coast of Florida as a weak tropical storm with maximum winds of 40 - 50 mph.
Posted on www.wunderground.com
Posted by: JeffMasters, 11:12 AM EDT on June 11, 2006
Well, I'm back to blogging on the hurricane season of 2006 earlier than I had hoped. We managed to put together a string of nine straight days without an active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic this hurricane season, but now that streak has come to an end with the formation of Tropical Storm Alberto. I scheduled my summer vacation for the period I though most likely to have ten straight days without tropical activity, but the tropics had other ideas.
Alberto is a fairly typical-looking June tropical storm. The satellite presentation is not very impressive this morning, with most of the deep convection lying to the east of the exposed center. Strong westerly winds associated with the subtropical jet stream are removing the deep convection from the center. This wind shear is creating a very hostile environment for Alberto to survive in, let alone strengthen. With the shear forecast to strengthen, I would not be surprised to see Alberto ripped apart tonight. If this scenario does occur, the low level swirl of clouds associated with Alberto's core will drift into the center of the Gulf of Mexico and gradually decay. The main moisture to the east of the center will separate and get pulled across Florida. If Alberto manages to survive, a strong trough of low pressure moving over the Eastern U.S. will recurve the storm over Central and Northern Florida, where Alberto will rapidly lose tropical characteristics and become a very rainy low pressure system. Alberto currently has tropical storm force winds of 40-45 mph in a very small area to the northeast of the center. The central pressure has actually risen 2 mb to 1004 mb since 7 am EDT this morning, proving that this is not a healthy tropical storm. I give Alberto a less than 5% chance of making hurricane status. It is far more likely (40% chance) that Alberto will get torn apart by high wind shear before making landfall on Florida's west coast. The most likely scenario is that Alberto will hit the west coast of Florida as a weak tropical storm with maximum winds of 40 - 50 mph.
Posted on www.wunderground.com
Beach Crab
So how's the weather there? It appears some of the radar loops show the cloud cover is starting to reach land. Any views of this weather from land yet?
Kurt & SJ, have your cameras handy?
Kurt & SJ, have your cameras handy?
Beach Fanatic
Don't know about SoWal, but it's rather breezy over here in Gulf County.
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