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questionable buying philosophy

Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal Expert
7,317 views
I am listening to Fox News weekend report, and these yahoos are picking stocks. One guy recommended as his pick, a stock which just reached a new high price. The guy following him commented that he liked that stock too, but he would wait and buy it after it went down and then came back up to a new high.

What kind of back@ss philosophy for investing is that? Goofer, can you explain this to me? It seems to be the same philosophy being taken by most real estate buyers. Anyone have any ideas, thoughts, or comments on this purchasing philosophy? IMO, it doesn't seem the smart way to invest one's money.

Replies

48
flyforfun avatar
Beach Fanatic
#27
This afternoon was a good time to nibble on some Altria, Johnson and Johnson, Bank of America, General Mills, Procter and Gamble and a lot of other great blue chips. These companies don't "cook the books" or have crooked CEO's. I suspect you will have ample opportunity to pick up some stellar buys in the next two weeks but don't procrastinate. You get 3 or 4 good opportunities a year to buy stocks......this is the first opportunity !! This was a long overdue correction and the China and Greenspan news was just the excuse. Fundamentals are still good and the sub prime mess will be contained. No one knows when the correction will be finished running its course but if you are a long term investor now is the time to start nibbling. The momentum guys get killled on these sell offs because they happen so quickly and ferociously they are like deer in the headlights and they are stuck holding stock they bought "at the highs".


Ok goofer, I am going to take your advice on this one...going to throw coins on them all. :roll:
flyforfun avatar
Beach Fanatic
#28
As for waiting for FL RE to start heating up...you'll be glad you bought a chair.

.


Yea, its one of those new vibrating beach chairs...I am enjoying it probably to much :rolling:
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#29
Sorry about that seacliffes....you stock junkies have more guts than I have! Hey they are calling it just a mistake, maybe I will buy some yahoo stock tommrow?:blush: But not before consulting goofer:roll:


The S&P closed down @ 3.47%...I think the RE guys call this correction a 'soft landing.'

:biggrin:

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TooFarTampa avatar
SoWal Insider
#30
There is not a person on the planet, including the Pope, Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, or the great commodity trader Hillary Clinton who knows what the stock market will do. You have to look at what intrinsic values are relative to price. There are many metrics to calculate value. After todays action I think there are many stocks that are good values based on PE's, dividends, and future growth prospects. The stock market could be up 1000 points tomorrow or in the weeks ahead ....no one knows. Certainly no one told you yesterday that the mkt at one point today would have been down more than 500 points!! My point is, this money is for the benefit of young children with more than a 10 year time horizon. Don't try to time the market....that is an impossibility and a mistake. If you feel you must cherry pick, then put half the money to work now and time the rest.

Good advice ... worth saying twice. :rofl: Thanks Goofer, you are right of course. :roll:
Bobby J avatar
Beach Fanatic
#31
How long as this agent been in the business?

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9 years
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#32
9 years

If he was in the biz for 9 years and is currently having his best month ever.... was he in a coma during the the great 2004-5 RE grab?
Bobby J avatar
Beach Fanatic
#33
Fair enough..since you're reporting from the street:

List the properties that you've closed in January/Feb and give some solid examples of what you would say are "priced to sell."


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Shelly,
In the pass 7 days 47 properties have gone under contract. If you give me your direct email I will send you a link of 47 properties (SoWAl) that were "priced to sell".

January for me was not a great month for the books but I started seeing an increase in calls and property showings. I also noticed my website hits almost doubled www.lifeonshore.com . I still managed to close on a home in Defuniak and a condo in Seacrest.

February we have really picked up. Remember our closings are typically 30 to 90 days out. In February, I closed on a home in Dune Allen and have contracts on a lot in Cassine Village, Point Washington, 5 acres in Freeport, and just got a contract on another home in Point Washington. I am also awaiting an offer on a home in Carillon.
I have grown up in this area and have watched people over the years try to analyze our market based on what they see in other areas or what their "indicators" show. Even when we were in the pit of this market we were selling. Many folks were acting like it was over. While we are all trying to figure it out, the "leaders" of the pack are buying. They are still seeing what we saw 2 years ago but at better prices. I mean no disrespect to you by saying I feel you are off about "this" market. I can tell you are a very wise person and have a great deal of experience in investing but trying to figure out SOWAL based on what the rest of the country is doing is a big mistake. This market (SOWAL) dances to the beat of its own drum.
Bobby J avatar
Beach Fanatic
#34
If he was in the biz for 9 years and is currently having his best month ever.... was he in a coma during the the great 2004-5 RE grab?

Nope
Babyblue avatar
Beach Fanatic
#35
I've been expecting the economy to start cleansing itself sooner or later.

No worries....just illustrates the point that diversification is the way to go. No one should be "all in" whether it comes to dot-coms or dot-condos.

As for waiting for FL RE to start heating up...you'll be glad you bought a chair.

.

O my gosh..You were expecting the market to tank. In just one day?? How do you do it??? :floor: :floor: :doh:
Beach Fanatic
#36
O my gosh..You were expecting the market to tank. In just one day?? How do you do it??? :floor: :floor: :doh:

How the heck do you go from "I've been expecting the economy to start cleansing itself" to "You were expecting the market to tank"?

:roll:
Babyblue avatar
Beach Fanatic
#37
How the heck do you go from "I've been expecting the economy to start cleansing itself" to "You were expecting the market to tank"?

:roll:

400 plus drop to me is tanking. But to others it might be just a cleansing. :blink:
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#38
400 plus drop to me is tanking. But to others it might be just a cleansing. :blink:

By cleansing I mean flushing out speculators and putting at least some of the "risk" back into the markets (equity, bonds, commodities, real estate, derivatives, FOREX, CMO, MBS etc.).

.

Edited

SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#39
I mean no disrespect to you by saying I feel you are off about "this" market. I can tell you are a very wise person and have a great deal of experience in investing but trying to figure out SOWAL based on what the rest of the country is doing is a big mistake. This market (SOWAL) dances to the beat of its own drum.


Fair enough...time will tell. (Congrats on your sales.)

But I'm sticking to my guns that the major reason for the run-up of the FLA real estate market (including SoWal) was a toxic mix of speculation, cheap money, and greed.

As a result, "this" market going forward won't be anything (in neither scope nor volume) like "that" market.

Moreover, for SoWal to underestimate the current housing "unaffordability" crisis, being felt especially by its vital service-labor pool, will be to its detriment.
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#40
400 plus drop to me is tanking. :blink:

And what term would you use for walking away from a $30,000 deposit on a pre-construction condo?


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goofer avatar
Beach Fanatic
#41
Moreover, for SoWal to underestimate the current housing "unaffordability" crisis, being felt especially by its vital service-labor pool, will be to its detriment

Shelly.....There was an article in either today's WSJ or yesterdays, talking about Disney and their resort area near the park in Orlando. The article was critical of Disney going to court to prevent low income housing near the resort area. This does not portend good things in North Walton county if these rumors of a small Disney theme park materialize. I hope that the county officials will make it mandatory that any of these big entertainment complexes have to provide affordable housing for employees or else they do not receive approvals. Mabe you can find the article and post it ? :biggrin:
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#42
Mabe you can find the article and post it ? :biggrin:

Disney Sues Anaheim Over Housing Plan
Associated Press 02.27.07, 9:45 AM ET

The Walt Disney Co. is suing the city of Anaheim over a controversial residential project that would add low-cost housing in the city's resort district.

Disney has long opposed the proposal to build 1,500 condominiums and apartments, including 225 units for lower income residents, near its amusement parks. The entertainment company says residents would be out of place in a district designed for tourists.

"This lawsuit speaks to how important we view this Anaheim resort area and that we make sure the vision sticks," said Disneyland spokesman Rob Doughty.

The Anaheim City Council is considering whether to reopen debate on the residential project after rejecting the proposal earlier this month with a split council vote.

The project's developer appealed and argued that Councilwoman Lucille Kring, who was told to abstain over of a possible conflict of interest because she planned to open a wine bar nearby, should have been allowed to vote.

The lawsuit filed Monday asks that Anaheim nullify the environmental analysis it approved for the project, claiming the process was legally flawed.

The resort area has increasingly has given way to hotels, restaurants and the tourist-friendly retail district called Downtown Disney.

Walt Disney himself complained that soon after he opened Disneyland in 1955 the area outside the park became filled with fast-food restaurants, cheap hotels, ugly neon signs and ticky-tack tourist attractions.

Disney officials want the 26-acre parcel at issue to be developed as an upscale hotel-condominium project.

Housing advocates argue that the apartment-condo proposal would be convenient for entertainment workers making modest wages.

Anaheim Mayor Curt Pringle said he wasn't surprised Disney went to court.

"There's no question this is a very significant issue to them and they are using all the means by which they can express that concern," he said.
Beach Fanatic
#43
Now don't clap too loudly, as I lost a lot of money today..:blink: I love our real estate market and since I have an invested interest and will be selling a beach parcel in the future, I obviously want it to do well to!

BTW I bought more stock today after the slide........

You bought more yesterday after the slide??? Good luck, I think you'll need it. Of course, after we go down the next 5 %, you can just say you're averaging down... again.

then again, I could be wrong... just a hunch...

after it went down today, i reloaded my SPY puts, loaded up some SHORT ETF's DXD, MZZ etc... am taking profits in subprime Mortgage PUTS, and reloading a significant bet into PUTS on "Alt-A" lenders such as FirstFed and Downey Savings and Loan (FED and DSL) .... i think they're next to show the cracks, although technically not subprime, most of their loans were 1) to stated income borrowers, 2) Option ARM loans, with option for making a creditcard like minimum payment that actually produces negative amortization, and 3) almost all of their loans were made into the Southern California market (my view most overpriced nationally) and 4) FED and DSL actually hold the majority of their mortgage loans on their books, rather than reselling them


good luck
Beach Fanatic
#44
Al Gore can harness some of the hot air emanating from our friendly day traders on this board. Perhaps Shelly and Robertson can help Gore to a Nobel Peace Prize by lowering Gore's home heating bill. Can we get some more wisdom about the stock exchange on the real estate board - Gore needs your help.
goofer avatar
Beach Fanatic
#45
Thanks Shelly.
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#46
Al Gore can harness some of the hot air emanating from our friendly day traders on this board. Perhaps Shelly and Robertson can help Gore to a Nobel Peace Prize by lowering Gore's home heating bill. Can we get some more wisdom about the stock exchange on the real estate board - Gore needs your help.

Hot Air and Real Estate...at your service:

Bobby J avatar
Beach Fanatic
#47
Moreover, for SoWal to underestimate the current housing "unaffordability" crisis, being felt especially by its vital service-labor pool, will be to its detriment.

We both can agree on this...
flyforfun avatar
Beach Fanatic
#48
Hot Air and Real Estate...at your service:




OMG Shelly! More insider traders caught playing games in the stock market! You should have bought you a nice piece of breach front property to enjoy the view as the stock market goes tumble-tumble:shock:


13 charged in white-collar case


By LARRY NEUMEISTER, Associated Press Writer1 hour, 19 minutes ago


Husband and wife lawyers and 11 top Wall Street workers were charged Thursday with making more than $15 million in illegal trading profit through an alleged federal securities fraud scheme, authorities said.
Linda Chatman Thomsen, director of the Division of Enforcement for the Securities and Exchange Commission, said in a statement that the case was "one of the most pervasive Wall Street insider trading rings since the days of Ivan Boesky and Dennis Levine" in the mid-1980s.
"What is so alarming about the conduct alleged in the SEC's case isn't just the scope of the scheme ... but, sadly, who is at the center of it," she said.
Besides the lawyers, defendants including registered representatives, compliance personnel and hedge fund portfolio managers, improperly relied on hundreds of tips during five years of illegal trading, she said.
"And this conduct didn't occur in obscure boiler rooms ? but rather at what are commonly considered `top tier' Wall Street firms," Thomsen said.
U.S. Attorney Michael Garcia said Wall Street professionals repeatedly traded on secrets revealed to them by insiders at UBS Securities LLC and Morgan Stanley and Co.
Among financial professionals charged criminally in U.S. District Court in Manhattan was Mitchel Guttenberg, an executive director and institutional client manager at UBS.
Garcia said Guttenberg, who worked in UBS's equity research department, accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars as he sold nonpublic information to two men regarding upcoming upgrades and downgrades in UBS analysts' securities recommendations.
The men, David Tavdy and Erik Franklin, used the UBS inside information to each earn more than $4 million by executing profitable trades in various brokerage accounts they controlled, Garcia said.
The attorneys, Randi Collotta, 30, who worked for Morgan Stanley & Co. Inc. in Manhattan, and her husband, Christopher Collotta, 34, who worked in private practice, were also among those criminally charged. Civil charges against 11 individuals and three entities were brought in a complaint filed by the SEC.
In an indictment, prosecutors said Randi Collotta was an associate in Morgan Stanley's global compliance division when she passed inside stock tips to her husband, who gave it to others, resulting in illegal profits of hundreds of thousands of dollars between September 2004 and August 2005.
After others made money from the tips, they paid Christopher Collotta cash that represented a portion of their profits, the indictment said.
Guttenberg, Tavdy, Franklin and the Collottas all were charged with conspiracy to commit securities fraud and securities fraud, which carry potential penalties of up to 25 years in prison. It was not immediately clear who would represent them at an initial court appearance along with five others arrested Thursday.
The four other criminal defendants have pleaded guilty to conspiracy, securities fraud and commercial bribery charges, prosecutors said.
Mary Claire Delaney, a Morgan Stanley spokeswoman, said, "We have cooperated and are continuing to cooperate fully with authorities regarding a former employee who allegedly stole information from Morgan Stanley."
Prosecutors said two insider trading schemes and two separate bribery schemes were part of the case.
The SEC said the scheme involved unlawful trading ahead of upgrades and downgrades by UBS research analysts and corporate acquisition announcements involving Morgan Stanley's investment banking clients.
It said the ringleaders of the UBS part of the scheme went to great lengths to hide their illegal conduct with tactics including a clandestine meeting at Manhattan's famed Oyster Bar and eventually the use of disposable cell phones, secret codes and cash kickbacks before the scheme unraveled.
Babyblue avatar
Beach Fanatic
#49
And what term would you use for walking away from a $30,000 deposit on a pre-construction condo?


.

:scratch: Hmmmm..I would say stupid if you can afford it. Smart if you can not. Kinda like buying on margin which all have done before.

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