Sales on 30A for July/Aug 2005

Does anyone have any data on what home sales were like for July and August? How many properties went under contract during this period. Is anyone buying anything? It's clear that the flippers have stopped flipping... but what about the other buyers - 2nd homes, vacation homes, etc. -- has everyone stopped buying because of media hype?

Yoo Hoo...where are you....skier?

Does anyone have any data on what home sales were like for July and August? How many properties went under contract during this period. Is anyone buying anything? It's clear that the flippers have stopped flipping... but what about the other buyers - 2nd homes, vacation homes, etc. -- has everyone stopped buying because of media hype?

Off the top of my head figures look scary...just in Blue Mt. Bch , 45 lots for sale Forest Lakes, 25 highland park, 38 Grayton Preserve etc. it's almost like everyone is walking briskly toward the exit door, yet trying not to look like they are in a hurry. A very unscientific opinion. wish someone had fresh figures.

Since June 1 2005 in Walton County South of the Bay
50 houses
29 town houses
205 condos
271 lots

Have sold. That does not include sales pending. For example there are 103 lots pending in August that have not had time to close.

Thanks for info CJ. Do you have any figures for same time period last year. Just wondering how large of an impact flippers pulling out of the market has made. Other factors influence these #'s as well though such as hurricanes...

Since June 1 2005 in Walton County South of the Bay
50 houses
29 town houses
205 condos
271 lots

Have sold. That does not include sales pending. For example there are 103 lots pending in August that have not had time to close.

Can you tell how many of these actually went under contract during June and July versus closings on properties that were under contract during a construction period? I know a lot of condos closed during that time frame but many, like the compass point condos in Watersound, went under contract long ago. Same for many of the homes that closed in places like Watercolor, etc. Also, how many lots were resales versus developer release lots?

Have sales slowed down since we have had back to back to back hurricanes?

Have sales slowed down since we have had back to back to back hurricanes?

I'm sure. The storms came early this year which also slowed the summer activity. The beach is the beach. What I mean is that there have always been storms and there will be storms in the future. The SoWal area is a special place and people will always want to be there. That is the good news. I think it will pick back up.

A good search site to go to is: http://www.waltonpa.com/

I'm sure. The storms came early this year which also slowed the summer activity. The beach is the beach. What I mean is that there have always been storms and there will be storms in the future. The SoWal area is a special place and people will always want to be there. That is the good news. I think it will pick back up.

A good search site to go to is: http://www.waltonpa.com/

I'm sure the market will pick back up. I hope to find a home in SoWal this dec or jan. I share your view on the storms and they will not keep me from living in Walton. Thanks for the link!

This is definately a better time to be a buyer than a seller. Buyers have more choice than ever before and can cherry pick quality properties at a good price. Less chosey buyers in this situation could "bottom feed'-put low offers on any lots they wanted until they got a "bite".

I would think that most of the 30A property owners who are lowering their prices are the "flippers" who are caught with build out deadlines and overextended credit. Once those sellers are weeded out the market will probably stabilize but until then prices maybe headed down some more.
A buyer can be patient in this environment but must be wary - if sales start to increase sellers will be happy to raise their prices quickly.

Essentially prices will drop until prices hit a level that brings in more buyers that would reduce the inventory of lots and homes. There is also a level at which some sellers will just pull their properties off the market if they do not need to sell now-that could be a wise decision in the long run.

I feel that 30A is a good investment because it is so unique and has the highest coastal elevations on the coast south of Maine. Frankly after seeing the devastation in Miss. and New Orleans I would not live on the coast unless I was at least 20 to 30 ft. above sea level.

I would not want to be a buyer or seller in low lying areas especially many areas of Panama City Beach, near the Choctawhatchee bay, and Destin . If a property required flood insurance I would run the other way.

I believe that it is best to sell high and buy low but it is hard to predict what is "high and low". It is also best to buy high elevation and sell low elevation. On 30A the odds are in the buyer's favor.If we do not have any more market disruptions this fall, such as another hurricane, prices may hit that stable level and start back up on 30A.

It is hard to say at this time how much the evacuees from New Orleans
( who are undoubtedly seeking higher ground) may impact our market but it can only help. I hope at least some chose to stay here if just for the reason that we would be enriched by a little of New Orlean's spirit and diversity .

I think you are right; it is a buyer's market. Things got soft in march and now I believe the buyers are in the drivers seat.

While the prices at Seaside have had a small trend down over the last few months the web site is down to 33 listings (from a high of about 40) including some condo/apt. and 2 lots. It looks like about 3 homes have come off the listing recently and one lot that was listed at $1.15mm.

Does anyone know if these are frustrated sellers giving up, or sales??

I counted 17 closings in Seaside through July. There were two more houses pending to close in August. All have been over $1mm. Most were substantially more. Seaside has the good fortune to be above the flood zone and behind the dunes.

I counted 17 closings in Seaside through July. There were two more houses pending to close in August. All have been over $1mm. Most were substantially more. Seaside has the good fortune to be above the flood zone and behind the dunes.

I counted 39 closings for the same period in 2004.

I counted 39 closings for the same period in 2004.

You know, the sun comes out when you are around skier. You have such a positive personality and great outlook for the future.

I counted 39 closings for the same period in 2004.

Yes but remember many of those would have gone under contract much earlier and taken awhile to close.

At least Skier made is 9 whole days without posting a "Real Estate Doom & Gloom Message"....

I do recall his statements he would only lurk...but I guess he couldn't help it anymore....the delirium tremors <shakes> must have been too much to take...

Does anyone remember the song from HeeHaw "Doom...Despair...and agony on me" ?


Doug

At least Skier made is 9 whole days without posting a "Real Estate Doom & Gloom Message"....

I do recall his statements he would only lurk...but I guess he couldn't help it anymore....the delirium tremors <shakes> must have been too much to take...

Does anyone remember the song from HeeHaw "Doom...Despair...and agony on me" ?


Doug

Hey Doug,

Yeah I couldn't resist trying to bring balance to the posts that seem to ignore the current state of the market. It's not doom and gloom. IT'S FACTS and simple reality. Are you and others that don't seem to like my posts opposed to discussing facts and reality???

Prices continue to drop. Recent sales in the big communities along 30A have been at prices well below the "market" just 6 months ago. A lot in Watercolor just got dropped to $450k and there are numerous lots under $600k. In Watersound, people continue to drop prices--several lot are below $700k again next to or near lots that sold for $800k or $900k within the last year. It appears (based on some other posts that I cannot confirm) that for the first time in years, the recent developer releases in Watercolor and Watersound did not sell out with 50 or 100 buyers waiting on the lottery list. The folks in ALys are calling potential buyers almost begging them to buy.

You might want to live in la la land. But, for people that are invested in the market and wanting to knowing what is really happening, I'll post info that gives actual data in the current market. Some might even find good buys in the info I post. These people that are looking for info don't need to hear people talking about returns of 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 40 percent that simply aren't there anymore. In fact, most folks that bought recently are now under water with their investments (if they had to sell today, they would lose money period, end of story, due to the excess inventory in the market). Some people actually want facts, not hype.

So, keep on hyping and I'll keep on throwing facts back at you to balance the equation. If the hyping stops, I'll stop throwing facts out that blow the bubble on the hype. Or, hopefully, the market will turn around and my statements of fact might even be pleasing to you. I don't want to see people lose money. I don't want to lose money. But, the market is what it is and nothing I say or that you say can change that.

Back to lurking.

Yes the asking prices are reduced... But are these people taking a loss? Or less of a gain?


Is this like the government saying "spending cuts" which realy means "reduction in the increse of spending"?

Yes the asking prices are reduced... But are these people taking a loss? Or less of a gain?


Is this like the government saying "spending cuts" which realy means "reduction in the increse of spending"?

Without researching each sale on the Walton County website, my gut tells me that these folks are not losing money. They are getting out before they lose money.

However, what about the guy or gal or builder (person A) that bought a resale lot for $900k last summer. Then, due to the decreasing prices, the guys next door and down the street that had a basis of $300k in the lots sell theirs to someone else (person B) for $650k this summer (this is happening in Watersound). And, Builder C bought his similar lot for $300k in the initial developer offering. A, B and C all build $700k homes on their lots and all decide to sell. A has a basis of $1.6 million, B has a basis of $1.35 mill and C has a basis of $1 million. If all need to or want to sell and the market is soft (as is happening right now in Watercolor --I can give many, many examples of this), C can continue to lower his price and so can B, but A is out of luck. If A or B are simply investors that need cash, uh oh, look out because C is a builder that must get out and he can continue to drop the price well below A's adn B's basis. Again, this is happening right now in Watercolor.

There are many folks with staying power that will not be forced to sell. But, there will be others with low basis that will sell at low prices establishing a new lower market than we had 6 months ago. Again, its happening right now in Watercolor, Watersound (not as familiar with Rosemary). Buyers will expect these lower prices, especially with so much current inventory and sellers continually lowering prices. THe inventory will continue to increase with so many spec homes being built in Cypress Dunes, Watercolor, Cypress Breeze, Watersound, ALys, etc., etc. There is way, way too much inventory. If inventory levels were reasonable, prices would probably be stable. But, that is not the case.

Its a buyers market--wish I had sold 6 to 10 months ago when it was still a sellers market. Oh well--hindsight is 20/20.

By the way, I really, really hope that this is short lived and the market turns SOON. Then, all of you can say I told you so and I can sell my house at a fabulous profit.

Hey Doug,

Yeah I couldn't resist trying to bring balance to the posts that seem to ignore the current state of the market. It's not doom and gloom. IT'S FACTS and simple reality. Are you and others that don't seem to like my posts opposed to discussing facts and reality???

Prices continue to drop. Recent sales in the big communities along 30A have been at prices well below the "market" just 6 months ago. A lot in Watercolor just got dropped to $450k and there are numerous lots under $600k. In Watersound, people continue to drop prices--several lot are below $700k again next to or near lots that sold for $800k or $900k within the last year. It appears (based on some other posts that I cannot confirm) that for the first time in years, the recent developer releases in Watercolor and Watersound did not sell out with 50 or 100 buyers waiting on the lottery list. The folks in ALys are calling potential buyers almost begging them to buy.

You might want to live in la la land. But, for people that are invested in the market and wanting to knowing what is really happening, I'll post info that gives actual data in the current market. Some might even find good buys in the info I post. These people that are looking for info don't need to hear people talking about returns of 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 40 percent that simply aren't there anymore. In fact, most folks that bought recently are now under water with their investments (if they had to sell today, they would lose money period, end of story, due to the excess inventory in the market). Some people actually want facts, not hype.

So, keep on hyping and I'll keep on throwing facts back at you to balance the equation. If the hyping stops, I'll stop throwing facts out that blow the bubble on the hype. Or, hopefully, the market will turn around and my statements of fact might even be pleasing to you. I don't want to see people lose money. I don't want to lose money. But, the market is what it is and nothing I say or that you say can change that.

Back to lurking.

The prices are dropping, but dropping from what? Ridiculusly high prices? I have been saying for a long time that many Realtors and agents have taken overpriced listings just so someone else would not get the listing. Those people do a great disservice to everyone. I have yet to hear, see, or read of anyone selling for less than they paid, which happens everyday in the stock market.

The folks in Alys Beach and WaterColor are trying to get people to buy at really high prices, compared to the prices 2 years ago. They would have no problem selling if they were not so damn greedy.

I have not seen people who are upside down, or underwater as you say, sell for less than they bought. They just wont do it at the moment. That could change.

The prices are dropping, but dropping from what? Ridiculusly high prices? I have been saying for a long time that many Realtors and agents have taken overpriced listings just so someone else would not get the listing. Those people do a great disservice to everyone. I have yet to hear, see, or read of anyone selling for less than they paid, which happens everyday in the stock market.

The folks in Alys Beach and WaterColor are trying to get people to buy at really high prices, compared to the prices 2 years ago. They would have no problem selling if they were not so damn greedy.

I have not seen people who are upside down, or underwater as you say, sell for less than they bought. They just wont do it at the moment. That could change.

Joe,

I agree with you. I have yet to see anyone that is currently underwater sell at a loss (but I don't look at but a fraction of the transactions in Walton County). And, maybe no one will. It all depends on how much staying power the investors have.

There are a couple of homes in Watercolor that sold 6 or 8 months ago for very high prices. The investors that bought these homes immediately put them back on the market at ridiculous prices. They have both reduced prices to the point that, if they sell, the profit margins after commissions and carrying costs will be razor thin. One of these investors also owns another house in Watercolor that he bought at a very high price and is trying to sell at a ridiculously high price. Maybe he will get his price. If not, I hope he has lots of resources because his investment in the market is huge by most peoples standards.

But, regardless of whether people take the losses or not, if the prices at which sales do occur are lower than the market prices these people paid at the time, they are underwater and the market has fallen. The key in the newer communities is the builders of spec homes with the low basis in the land. Due to the build out time frames, the builders will build and they will be forced to sell rather than sit on the homes. I believe that these builders will the ones that set the new standard for market prices. By the way, several builders are actually selling the lots they bought in the original developer releases. What does this tell you? Why sell the lots if you can build a house and reap even more profit? Builders typically buy lots to build homes on, not to sell before building. This is another sign of the times.

Time will tell.

Skier,

Are you really an owner? Your repetitive messages appears to hope values decrease dramatically. If you really are an owner, state the MLS listing of your property....like many other's have requested!

Doug

I counted 39 closings for the same period in 2004.

The houses sold this year closed at prices substantially higher than last year. The rapid runup in prices is indeed slowing the market, but I have not seen any evidence of market wide price pull back in Seaside.

... The key in the newer communities is the builders of spec homes with the low basis in the land. Due to the build out time frames, the builders will build and they will be forced to sell rather than sit on the homes. I believe that these builders will the ones that set the new standard for market prices. By the way, several builders are actually selling the lots they bought in the original developer releases. What does this tell you? Why sell the lots if you can build a house and reap even more profit? Builders typically buy lots to build homes on, not to sell before building. This is another sign of the times.

Time will tell.

I know plenty of builders who have sold lots rather than building on them, just to free up debt load, and keep the cash flowing. You must remember that a builder who purchases a lot today, may take at least 6 months before he begins construction, depending on how many houses he is building. Sometimes, builders don't start construction even that soon. Right now, you are looking at 8-9 months to complete a home once you begin. So, even if he buys the lot today, he will not be selling that until a least a year down the road. If these builders are nearing completion today, they can still afford to sell for cheap, and pocket some good cash. They will not have a problem making money.

Everyone can look at Cypress Dunes to see what is going to happen with build out times, which are quickly approaching for some lots. The lot I mentioned earlier, lot 112 Cypress Walk, has one of the longer build out times of all the 44 which are actively listed. The buildout time for it is about 13 months to begin construction and an additional 1.5 years to complete. Other lots in there, including one priced around $1.2 M, have construction start dates very early in 2006. I don't think $1.2 M is a motivated price. Cypress Dunes is looking at possible extensions on a case by case basis.

One problem that may come back to haunt Cypress Dunes, and Ashwood Development, is that Coastal Properties, the exclusive brokerage, would not pay co-brokerage (commission) to another agent who brought a buyer to them. That alone was enough to make other Realtors push people away from Cypress Dunes. At the time of the Seller's Market, this was not a problem, but now that the market has shifted to a Buyer's Market, little is moving in there, and I don't see other agents remembering Cypress Dunes in a favorable light due to the exclusive agreement with Coastal Properties.
Just my two cents.

In addition to the 44 Active listings for lots in Cypress Dunes, as of yesterday, there were 9 lots under contract, and only 7 lots have closed in the last 90 days.

Skier may bring the extreme end of doom and gloom, but he makes some very valid points which everyone thinking of purchasing today should read. I know most of you are not new to this market, and many of you will not be affected at all by that which Skier is bringing up. The market has declined, but I still say that most Sellers are not very motivated. There are a few out there, and some good values can be purchased right now.

THE TOP TEN CAUSES TO THE PERFECT STORM THAT SANK THE EMERALD COAST REAL ESTATE MARKET?

1. Hurricane Ivan last year

2. Devastating hurricanes this year-and it's not over.

3. Over development resulting in bloated inventory.

4. Excessive speculation with leveraging.

5. Fears about hurricanes getting more frequent and more severe due to global warming.

6. Highly publicized concerns about "real estate bubble" bursting.

7. Beach erosion and shark attacks are making beaches less inviting.

8. interest rate hikes

9. record high gas prices

10. General national malaise of weak economy, Iraq mess, exploding budget and trade deficits, New Orleans disaster, terrorist menace, and loss of confidence in federal government's ability to deal with it all.

Did I leave something out?