Planet Realtor *>* Florida *>* News *>* Daily
Real estate experts forecast growth
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Nov. 7, 2005 -- Forget the I-4 corridor. Interstate 10 and this area of North Florida are poised to be the next hot spot for real-estate development, according to some real-estate experts.
That's because lack of available land and water supplies as well as growth-management problems are continuing to plague South Florida.
"We've recently become a part of Florida now," said Will Butler, of the St. Joe Land Co. Butler was among the real-estate experts and more than 500 attendees Friday who shared their knowledge of the industry at Florida State University's Real Estate Trends & Networking Conference.
The conference, in its 11th year, was held at the University Center Club.
"I believe - whether we want to see this area of the state change or not - we will see unprecedented growth along I-10," Butler said.
But that growth will come in stages, experts say, as many residents still want to live in bigger cities in Central and South Florida.
Currently those cities are seeing exponential growth in condominiums. But many additional condo projects might not get off the drawing board, according to real-estate officials.
They see a slowdown of more expensive condos, and more affordable ones may come into the market. But sales, said real-estate officials, didn't seemed to have been affected by the hurricanes.
The rental market, however, has seen a backlash.
The demand for more condos means more condo conversions. Tampa Bay, said Michael Slater, with TRAIAD Research & Consulting, has lost at least 25,000 rental units because of conversions.
And that's too bad because "it's a good time to own rental assets," Slater said, "They're just hard to find."
Historically, Florida's rental market growth has been faster than that of the nation. Nationally, the growth rate was around 2.45 percent. Most Florida metro markets realized growth of about 4 percent a year. But now the rate is 6 percent to 10 percent a year.
Similar growth rates also are being seen in the retail office market area.
Trend watchers reported that the Florida office market is outperforming that of any other state. Only Washington, D.C., is doing better. Statewide, vacancy rates hover at about 13.7 percent.
In Florida, retail office space still can be rented around $20 a square foot, according to Paul Ellis, of the Trammel Crow Co.
Because of Florida's low office rental rates, more companies are doing regional relocations. The state's natural resources and lack of a personal income tax are also attractive to companies. It also has a strong labor pool. There are at least 50 colleges and universities in the Orlando area alone.
Prices for office space will rise, said experts, because of land and construction costs and operating expenses, as reasons. But the good news, they say, is that the market will remain competitive.
George Banks, Summit East's operations manager, believes he's seeing that already.
Banks handles leasing for the technology park at U.S. 90 East and Interstate 10, which plans to build at least 10 to 12 other buildings. Currently, its three buildings are 100-percent leased.
"The demand is there for our product," Banks said. "And based on this, it looks like it will continue to be strong."
Copyright ? 2005 Tallahassee Democrat, Juana Jordan. All Rights Reserved.
*
Replies
70
Beach Fanatic
Planet Realtor *>* Florida *>* News *>* Daily
Real estate experts forecast growth
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Nov. 7, 2005 -- Forget the I-4 corridor. Interstate 10 and this area of North Florida are poised to be the next hot spot for real-estate development, according to some real-estate experts.
That's because lack of available land and water supplies as well as growth-management problems are continuing to plague South Florida.
"We've recently become a part of Florida now," said Will Butler, of the St. Joe Land Co. Butler was among the real-estate experts and more than 500 attendees Friday who shared their knowledge of the industry at Florida State University's Real Estate Trends & Networking Conference.
The conference, in its 11th year, was held at the University Center Club.
"I believe - whether we want to see this area of the state change or not - we will see unprecedented growth along I-10," Butler said.
But that growth will come in stages, experts say, as many residents still want to live in bigger cities in Central and South Florida.
Currently those cities are seeing exponential growth in condominiums. But many additional condo projects might not get off the drawing board, according to real-estate officials.
They see a slowdown of more expensive condos, and more affordable ones may come into the market. But sales, said real-estate officials, didn't seemed to have been affected by the hurricanes.
The rental market, however, has seen a backlash.
The demand for more condos means more condo conversions. Tampa Bay, said Michael Slater, with TRAIAD Research & Consulting, has lost at least 25,000 rental units because of conversions.
And that's too bad because "it's a good time to own rental assets," Slater said, "They're just hard to find."
Historically, Florida's rental market growth has been faster than that of the nation. Nationally, the growth rate was around 2.45 percent. Most Florida metro markets realized growth of about 4 percent a year. But now the rate is 6 percent to 10 percent a year.
Similar growth rates also are being seen in the retail office market area.
Trend watchers reported that the Florida office market is outperforming that of any other state. Only Washington, D.C., is doing better. Statewide, vacancy rates hover at about 13.7 percent.
In Florida, retail office space still can be rented around $20 a square foot, according to Paul Ellis, of the Trammel Crow Co.
Because of Florida's low office rental rates, more companies are doing regional relocations. The state's natural resources and lack of a personal income tax are also attractive to companies. It also has a strong labor pool. There are at least 50 colleges and universities in the Orlando area alone.
Prices for office space will rise, said experts, because of land and construction costs and operating expenses, as reasons. But the good news, they say, is that the market will remain competitive.
George Banks, Summit East's operations manager, believes he's seeing that already.
Banks handles leasing for the technology park at U.S. 90 East and Interstate 10, which plans to build at least 10 to 12 other buildings. Currently, its three buildings are 100-percent leased.
"The demand is there for our product," Banks said. "And based on this, it looks like it will continue to be strong."
Copyright ? 2005 Tallahassee Democrat, Juana Jordan. All Rights Reserved.
*
Well I wish It would boom and I could sell my place!
Beach Lover
Dabell: I hope you can sell your property but don't get too anxious - now buyers seem to be "cherry picking" some prime properties at bargain prices in this is unprecedented buying opportunity environment.
In the last week we have been seeing a significant increase in activity on our lot on 30a. However, our lot is unique in that it is large, walking distance to the beach, and has no build out time. It also has an elevation that is above historical storm surge levels yet is close enough to
the beach to have a view.
In the last week we have been seeing a significant increase in activity on our lot on 30a. However, our lot is unique in that it is large, walking distance to the beach, and has no build out time. It also has an elevation that is above historical storm surge levels yet is close enough to
the beach to have a view.
Beach Lover
DaBell:
FYI we have actually decreased our price by about $100,000 since we listed it. However, based on the trend of buyers looking for beach property with a high elevation and above historical storm surge levels we will be returning our price to the original appropriate level very soon-perhaps within a couple of weeks.
30a has the highest coastal elevation of any property in Florida or for that matter in the southern US. The current high inventory of property on 30a masks the fact that such high elevation coastal property really is rare.
We are now noticing the appearence of "smart money investors" out there bargain hunting.We have had a perfect storm of negative factors influencing the market which makes it it good time to buy but not sell.
If you can wait until March and April to sell you might want to hold on. We are now begining to see the convergence of a number of positive elements which may launch the appreciation of prices again.
FYI we have actually decreased our price by about $100,000 since we listed it. However, based on the trend of buyers looking for beach property with a high elevation and above historical storm surge levels we will be returning our price to the original appropriate level very soon-perhaps within a couple of weeks.
30a has the highest coastal elevation of any property in Florida or for that matter in the southern US. The current high inventory of property on 30a masks the fact that such high elevation coastal property really is rare.
We are now noticing the appearence of "smart money investors" out there bargain hunting.We have had a perfect storm of negative factors influencing the market which makes it it good time to buy but not sell.
If you can wait until March and April to sell you might want to hold on. We are now begining to see the convergence of a number of positive elements which may launch the appreciation of prices again.
SoWal Insider
Beach FanaticAuthor
to SHELLY-thanks for the article.
I am not surpised that the central Florida Land O' Lakes market is slowing. What surpises me is that anyone wanted to buy there in the first place.
I love Scenic 30A!
I am not surpised that the central Florida Land O' Lakes market is slowing. What surpises me is that anyone wanted to buy there in the first place.
I love Scenic 30A!
SoWal Insider
to SHELLY-thanks for the article.
I am not surpised that the central Florida Land O' Lakes market is slowing. What surpises me is that anyone wanted to buy there in the first place.
I love Scenic 30A!
Today on CNBC a big-time mortgage guy said business is way, way down now that easy money has dried up. He also said many of his family members (who are well-placed REMAX agents in the Sarasota and west coast Florida area) are letting him know in no uncertain terms that buyers are few and far between for their ever expanding <and probably overpriced> listings.
Housing demand isn't going to go away--it will, however, revert back to the mean (which ISN'T double digit appreciation, buyers camping out and 3 turnovers in a week).
Meow
Today on CNBC a big-time mortgage guy said business is way, way down now that easy money has dried up. He also said many of his family members (who are well-placed REMAX agents in the Sarasota and west coast Florida area) are letting him know in no uncertain terms that buyers are few and far between for their ever expanding <and probably overpriced> listings.
Housing demand isn't going to go away--it will, however, revert back to the mean (which ISN'T double digit appreciation, buyers camping out and 3 turnovers in a week).
And you know what SHELLY...for me that's just peachy!!!! IMHO, extremes in anything finally even out....it's like that old pendulum.
Beach Comber
Help! Need remodeling references
OK...lots of you are familiar with the area and maybe have some good suggestions for dependable, reliable remodelers. We have plans, permit and are ready to go. Tired of waiting on a fllaky guy who refuses to get his act together and get started. Frustrated!!
OK...lots of you are familiar with the area and maybe have some good suggestions for dependable, reliable remodelers. We have plans, permit and are ready to go. Tired of waiting on a fllaky guy who refuses to get his act together and get started. Frustrated!!
Edited
Admin
Re: Help! Need remodeling references
You should start a new thread.
OK...lots of you are familiar with the area and maybe have some good suggestions for dependable, reliable remodelers. We have plans, permit and are ready to go. Tired of waiting on a fllaky guy who refuses to get his act together and get started. Frustrated!!
You should start a new thread.
Meow
Re: Help! Need remodeling references
...and take some Advil for that headache!!!
You should start a new thread.
...and take some Advil for that headache!!!
Beach FanaticAuthor
to SHELLY,
I agree that this summer has been -and still is as far as I know-a buyer's market and that there are more listings than buyers . However, what the original article that initiated this thread is saying is that our area has considerably more POTENTIAL for growth than the grid locked "old Florida " to the south.
The article does meantion that the Panhandle has better water resources. But it fails to indicate that it has the only coastal property in Florida that is above even the highest recorded storm surge levels-specifically 30A.
Scenic 30A has the potential to become even more exclusive and expensive than it already is--not that I am hoping for that . Now could be a good buying opportunity -especially for selective "cherry picking"and bargain hunting -on 30A. However, I do not feel very optimistic about most other areas in Florida including any low lying areas in the Panhandle.
I agree that this summer has been -and still is as far as I know-a buyer's market and that there are more listings than buyers . However, what the original article that initiated this thread is saying is that our area has considerably more POTENTIAL for growth than the grid locked "old Florida " to the south.
The article does meantion that the Panhandle has better water resources. But it fails to indicate that it has the only coastal property in Florida that is above even the highest recorded storm surge levels-specifically 30A.
Scenic 30A has the potential to become even more exclusive and expensive than it already is--not that I am hoping for that . Now could be a good buying opportunity -especially for selective "cherry picking"and bargain hunting -on 30A. However, I do not feel very optimistic about most other areas in Florida including any low lying areas in the Panhandle.
SoWal Insider
I absolutely agree with you, ecopal. Look for the building codes to get even tighter all around the state. And with so many of the houses already in compliance with better building codes (remember -- Seaside made it through Opal just fine), combined with the height above sea level, I suspect it won't be too long before it is "discovered" by the masses. The only people really in trouble are the owners of the gulf front homes that can't take any more storms. I feel for all of them. 
SoWal Insider
(remember -- Seaside made it through Opal just fine), .
Opal hit miles and miles and miles from Seaside (Navarre to be exact). What if Opal--or Ivan--or Katrina--or Rita--had hit Destin smack in the chops? With Seaside on (and much closer to) the "bad side" of either of those I doubt the outcome would have been as rosy.
Beach Lover
The eye of Hurricane Opal crossed the coast near Santa Rosa Island around 6:00 pm on October 4th. In a very fortunate turn of events - Opal weakened greatly in the final 8 hours before landfall, although still coming ashore at the lower end of a major hurricane. Sustained winds of 115 mph, with gusts to 140 mph, occurred across a short stretch of coastline between Destin and Panama City, Florida. Outside of the narrow stretch of coastline, winds of 80 to 100 mph were experienced. Hurlburt Air Field, near the eye of Opal, recorded 92 mph winds, gusting to 144 mph. Panama City recorded sustained winds of 65 mph with a peak gust of 86 mph.
Storm surge was recorded between 8-14 feet.
Even if it had come closer I believe the outcome in the Seaside/30-A area would not have been much different.
Do you really hate it here so much?
Storm surge was recorded between 8-14 feet.
Even if it had come closer I believe the outcome in the Seaside/30-A area would not have been much different.
Do you really hate it here so much?
SoWal Insider
Even if it had come closer I believe the outcome in the Seaside/30-A area would not have been much different.
Folks who were REALLY on to the "business" side of of any of those hurricanes would disagree.
Beach Comber
The eye of Hurricane Opal crossed the coast near Santa Rosa Island around 6:00 pm on October 4th. In a very fortunate turn of events - Opal weakened greatly in the final 8 hours before landfall, although still coming ashore at the lower end of a major hurricane. Sustained winds of 115 mph, with gusts to 140 mph, occurred across a short stretch of coastline between Destin and Panama City, Florida. Outside of the narrow stretch of coastline, winds of 80 to 100 mph were experienced. Hurlburt Air Field, near the eye of Opal, recorded 92 mph winds, gusting to 144 mph. Panama City recorded sustained winds of 65 mph with a peak gust of 86 mph.
Storm surge was recorded between 8-14 feet.
Even if it had come closer I believe the outcome in the Seaside/30-A area would not have been much different.
Do you really hate it here so much?
I believe a direct hit by a 4 or especially a 5 would devastate the area along 30A. Few of the dunes are high enough to withstand a 25 foot storm surge. We would have flooding inland in most areas for hundreds/thousands of feet, especially with all the dune lakes and the bay that would get us from the backside. There would be widespread destruction by the surge. No one along any coast is safe from a cat 5 monster.
Beach Fanatic
I agree with Monty about the strong Cat 4 or 5 storm. If the storm itself is extremely large and comes in at high tide, as Ivan did, then the devastation will be huge and will be far more encompassing than being on the low side of dunes or flood elevation levels. Most properties between the Gulf and Highway 20 will be heavily damaged if not destroyed. If we have a strong 4 or 5 hurricane, I assume our home at Grayton will be completely destroyed. I assumed as much with Ivan before it turned westward and lost some of its strength.
In October of 1995, Opal came ashore as a Cat 3 with a 16-ft. storm surge. It destroyed 20 to 30-ft. dunes (that have yet to recover) and washed older houses off their foundations (including the former 100-yr. old "Conch Out"). It also took out almost every mature tree in the Lake DeFuniak Lakeyard park. To think that you are safe from one of these monsters because you're on somewhat higher ground than Gulf-front is delusional. For that matter, folks in buildings that exceed three stories actually get the higher force hurricane winds. Best we can hope for is that our 35-yr. history holds, that most storms tend to clock westerward because of their counter-clockwise motion. For one to move directly north into South Walton from the Gulf usually requires a very strong front pressing in from the northwest, mercifully rare that time of the year.
In October of 1995, Opal came ashore as a Cat 3 with a 16-ft. storm surge. It destroyed 20 to 30-ft. dunes (that have yet to recover) and washed older houses off their foundations (including the former 100-yr. old "Conch Out"). It also took out almost every mature tree in the Lake DeFuniak Lakeyard park. To think that you are safe from one of these monsters because you're on somewhat higher ground than Gulf-front is delusional. For that matter, folks in buildings that exceed three stories actually get the higher force hurricane winds. Best we can hope for is that our 35-yr. history holds, that most storms tend to clock westerward because of their counter-clockwise motion. For one to move directly north into South Walton from the Gulf usually requires a very strong front pressing in from the northwest, mercifully rare that time of the year.
Beach Lover
I agree that if you are in an area of less than 30 feet elevation you are very vulnerable. This would include any of the areas around the coastal lakes such as Draper, Oyster, Eastern, Western, Redfish Lakes etc.
Most areas of the Old Seagrove Beach area are over 30 feet in elevation which is higher than most of both Seaside and Watercolors. Sure Old Seagrove Beach could be overwhelmed in the perfect CAT. 5 storm but in the unlikely scenario that it was washed over there would be nothing else left: Destin, Sandestin, Panama City Beach, Fort Walton Beach and Navarre and Pensacola Beach would all be gone. Also note that some of the trees in OLd Seagrove Beach are hundreds of years old.
If I was lucky enough to have a home in Old Seagrove above 30 feet sea level I would not be too worried about storm surge unless I was right on the water. However being the pessimist I am, I might still buy flood insurance because is not that expensive.
I remember in the last big hurricane here even low lying areas like Grayton Beach survived inspite of their low elevation. The Red Bar was filled with sand and had to be shoveled out and the old Grayton cafe was destroyed just across the street. But older cottages just a block inland survived. And this was when the bridges at Eastern Lake and Western Lake were washed out.
Most areas of the Old Seagrove Beach area are over 30 feet in elevation which is higher than most of both Seaside and Watercolors. Sure Old Seagrove Beach could be overwhelmed in the perfect CAT. 5 storm but in the unlikely scenario that it was washed over there would be nothing else left: Destin, Sandestin, Panama City Beach, Fort Walton Beach and Navarre and Pensacola Beach would all be gone. Also note that some of the trees in OLd Seagrove Beach are hundreds of years old.
If I was lucky enough to have a home in Old Seagrove above 30 feet sea level I would not be too worried about storm surge unless I was right on the water. However being the pessimist I am, I might still buy flood insurance because is not that expensive.
I remember in the last big hurricane here even low lying areas like Grayton Beach survived inspite of their low elevation. The Red Bar was filled with sand and had to be shoveled out and the old Grayton cafe was destroyed just across the street. But older cottages just a block inland survived. And this was when the bridges at Eastern Lake and Western Lake were washed out.
Beach Fanatic
Flood insurance is always wise, because most flooding damage is not caused by actual Gulf storm surge. For example, if there is a frog-strangler rain and water goes into your house, you need flood insurance to cover the damage. Incidentally, damage goes beyond just drying the place out. If the water has touched the ground at all, the house really should be water vacuumed, dehumidified with many of those huge blowers (about $500/day for three days minimum) and then checked for residual moisture. You should also toss any carpet and padding (or other household items) that come into contact with such water.
Beach Comber
Flood insurance is always wise, because most flooding damage is not caused by actual Gulf storm surge. For example, if there is a frog-strangler rain and water goes into your house, you need flood insurance to cover the damage. Incidentally, damage goes beyond just drying the place out. If the water has touched the ground at all, the house really should be water vacuumed, dehumidified with many of those huge blowers (about $500/day for three days minimum) and then checked for residual moisture. You should also toss any carpet and padding (or other household items) that come into contact with such water.
I live in Orange Beach, Alabama and went through Ivan. I'll second the suggestion that everybody - regardless of whether or not you live on the coast - needs flood insurance. The insurance companies are very particular about what is their responsibility and its better to be covered from both ends. Flood insurance is cheap - for now anyway.
As for the elevation. My home was "built up' 8 1/2 feet above ground level. We got 18 inches of water in our home, but no roof damage. The homes in the development behind us are on pilings (which puts them up a good bit higher than us) and didn't flood but they lost much of their roofs. In a storm the size of Ivan (and Ivan was nothing compared to Katrina), the only thing I believe is "safe" is the newly constructed, steel, concrete and glass condos. Everything else, pray.
Also, I'll offer a suggestion. If you ever have the misfortune of getting water in your home through the roof or from the ground up, save yourself some work and worry, call a water damage restoration company and have them dry your home out. For us, they removed all the sheetrock 5 feet up, all the tile and carpet, all the doors, all cabinets, all appliances - basically everything that the water touched, so that also means all of your furniture and some of your clothing. We had 19 industrial grade dehumidifiers in our home for over a week. Insurance will pay for all this, so its best to get one of these companies before they're to busy to get to you. Some of them - like ours- will also contract to build your house back. Its really amazing what kind of damage water can do to your home in a short time - especially salt water.
Edited
Beach Fanatic
This is all interesting and useful. What are the names of the water damage restoration companies in the area if we ever need them (perish the thought, of course!)?
Beach Comber
The company we used was WaterMark Restoration out of Birmingham. There are many more. You can find them on the net by searching "water restoration" or "disaster restoration." I forgot to say that some of these companies will file your insurance claim and negotiate with the insurance companies. I think the standard charge is about 2% of the claim, but, from what I've seen, they'll get you back a lot more than that, with less effort and worry.
Beach Fanatic
With the Ivan storm surge, we had about two inches of water in our ground floor. It is imperative to get a water extraction company in immediately, because "black" water (that which has been in contact with the ground) will immediately start to smell and deposit bacteria. We used Beachy Clean, a Destin firm, and were very happy with their work. They ripped out all the carpeting and pads (which we had intended to remove that year and replace with stone, anyway), took out the baseboards, set up 12 huge dehumidifiers, then came back twice to test for moisture/mold with special equipment. The flood insurance covererd every single item submitted, including various items on the floors in closets that had to be thrown away. The deductible on flood insurance is $500. We had a check in hand before the charge card expenses for Beachy Clean came in. After we added the stone tile floors and Dennis came through, all we had was a wee bit of water that was vacuumed up and we had a special mopping to clean for any possible bacteria. My brother put sandbags outside our ground floor door, used duct tape to tape up the doorjam with plastic sheeting, then put more sandbags against that. Worked beautifully and we had no damage claim whatsoever. Duct tape is a miracle of the modern world! Yes, flood insurance is not expensive and the deductible is $500 as compared to $10,000 for hurricane/wind damage.
I agree that one really has to use the services of an experienced company for water extraction and cleanup. They can save you tens of thousands of dollars that may otherwise be spent if this water is given a toehold in your house. Beachy Clean keeps us on a priority list now, so that if a storm does come through, they are checking out our place and getting on the job pronto.
I agree that one really has to use the services of an experienced company for water extraction and cleanup. They can save you tens of thousands of dollars that may otherwise be spent if this water is given a toehold in your house. Beachy Clean keeps us on a priority list now, so that if a storm does come through, they are checking out our place and getting on the job pronto.
Beach Lover
The travel magizine "Conde Nast" current issure,just published a poll of where people wish to have their 2nd home if it could be anywhere in the world. USA was # 1 country, Florida was number one state and the beach (by 78%) was the number 1 area. 82% wanted a vacation home "in a place I want to return to often", 63% wanted a "resort community", 45% wanted to own and 45% wanted a time share. When you factor in available land it sounds like the Panhandle of Florida.
SoWal Insider
I disagree that "newly constructed, steel, concrete and glass condos" are a safe bet when it comes to hurricanes. The "newly" constructed condos on Pensacola Beach called Portofino didn't fare well during Ivan. In addition to extensive (and EXPENSIVE) damage to landscaping, outdoor facilities and ground floor lobbies, health clubs, shops and restaurants, wind-blown water was forced through the patio doors and windows (the ones that remained intact) and soaked carpeting, drapes, furniture and wallboard where mold took hold in a big way. Moreover, the a/c units were ripped off the roof ruining the penthouses and causing rain to pour through the conduits and inside the walls for several floors down the tower blocks. When it comes to the power of Mother Nature, nowhere is "safe"--if she can't rip it up or tear it down, she'll wash the sand out from under it...don't fool yourself into thinking anything less.
Checking your forum account
Please wait while we verify your forum account.