Ariel Dunes II Pre-construction...

Yes I have a contract for a 2 br unit. My bias opinon is that it is going to be great! What are you trying to find out about it?

Considering the success of Sandestin with the buildings that are off the beach but with a gulf view and included within the resort amenities, Ariel Dunes should do very well. One Beach Club and Luau are major successes.

Luau in Sandestin is already flipping 2 Bedroom units that they paid $500 - 600,000 for $900m - $1,100,000 and the building will not even close until July 2006.

I'm encouraged by contract assignments listing for $200K above orig purchase. Also, the location on Scenic 98 seems ideal: a nice sunset Gulf view yet just far enough off the beach to enjoy a slight buffer from the storms...

http://www.arieldunesii.com/location.html

I think this may be it.

a sketch of Ariel Dunes II

We have two 2 br's in Luau and looking to flip one of them. I saw a handful of listings, but haven't seen any that have closed. Do you know of any that have closed?

They will not close until the CO is issued, expected mid 2006.

>>>Beachside:12-16-2005 03:21 PM
"Luau in Sandestin is already flipping 2 Bedroom units that they paid $500 - 600,000 for $900m - $1,100,000 and the building will not even close until July 2006."<<<



sounds like the real estate market is alive and well in Sandestin.

True, but that wouldn't preclude the listing agent to put the listing in 'Pending'. There are none in pending, all are active. So I'm wondering if the poster above giving the handsome figures is relying on the available listings or does he/she know of some that are privately offered and are pending.

If a unit is reserved, according to the rules of the MLS, the listing is required to be changed to "reserved" within 24 hours. However, not everyone follows the rules.
Regarding the units in Luau, only 11 units have been entered as listed, and all 11 of them are listed as "active." Since there are more than 11 units in this building, this probably indicates that the other Agents are not following the rules of the MLS, or that the other units have not been listed. I have a good guess of which is correct.;-)

>>>Beachside:12-16-2005 03:21 PM
"Luau in Sandestin is already flipping 2 Bedroom units that they paid $500 - 600,000 for $900m - $1,100,000 and the building will not even close until July 2006."<<<



sounds like the real estate market is alive and well in Sandestin.

...or they haven't run out of "greater fools" in Sandestin.

I'll let you know in six months. I doubt we'll get it with an assignment, but fortunately I don't need to sell. We'll get that figure but, it may be in 2 - 3 years.

It's a good thing you don't need to sell...you'd have far too much competition from those who DO need to sell to keep from being eaten alive by increasing interest rates, taxes, insurance and association/management fees. Between "investor" selling on one end (there are lots of panhandle condos flooding the market now and more to come in the Spring), developers throwing up more condos on the other end and "vulture capitalists" getting ready to pick the bones of "in too deep" speculators in the middle, I think the days of double-digit appreciation rates are pretty much history. (33% annual appreciation @ 2 years or 22% annual appreciation @ 3 years might be a bit too ambitious)

I can't imagine doing another preconstruction in this market. No way would I do it.

Maybe you won't do it...but the developers are still throwing condos up and they are still pulling in the ever-dwindling number of "fools."

Florida is predicting a slower tourist season this summer and the weather service is predicting a very active hurricane season. These two things combined, along with a tightening money supply, decreasing exotic lending products, increasing insurance/taxes, increasing HOA/property management fees, and flooding of the condo market by speculators desperate to dump their properties will, IMO, signal the beginning of the end for the "Era of the Pre-Construction Condos for Fun and Profit" in Florida.

Where did you see that Fl. is predicitng a slower than usual tourist season?
Is anyone seeing a slowdown in bookings for their properties for 2006??

Reports/predictions I've seen for tourist season 2006 expect moderate increases statewide.

Where did you see that Fl. is predicitng a slower than usual tourist season?
Is anyone seeing a slowdown in bookings for their properties for 2006??

FLORIDA TOURISM 2006

Thanks for the link.

It states they are predicting a 3.2 % increase in visitors in 2006. Higher than the 2% increase expected in visits to the US, but substantially lower than 7% increase in Fl tourism between 2003 and 2004.

I guess it is all how you interpret it. Fl. will see an increase in visitors, just not as much as in previous years. Maybe that means our beaches will be a little less crowded this summer. That would be fine w/me.

Thanks for the link.
I guess it is all how you interpret it. Fl. will see an increase in visitors, just not as much as in previous years. Maybe that means our beaches will be a little less crowded this summer. That would be fine w/me.

Me too!

Why don't you read your link? A 3.2% INCREASE is not a "slower" tourist season. The first three months of 2005 was the most lucrative quarter in Orlando tourism history - and that's coming off the 4 hurricanes of 2004. Your MO pretty much comes down to throwing as much crap as you can think of against the wall and hope some of sticks.

From my perspective it is you who is following the herd. The herd is not screaming "buy real estate." The reverse is true. It appears that you get your jollies by laughing at the fools who bought at the top. History shows that unless those "fools" are overleveraged, it is they who will be having the last laugh. Regarding PRIME real estate, what looks high today will look cheap down the road. The coast between Gulf Shores and Carabelle 10 - 15 years out bears no resemblence to what it looks like today. I'm sure that pains you, but fact is a lot of fortunes are going to be made.

According to your logic, the intelligent investor goes in and out of markets at just the right time, taking profits and leaving the all the fools behind to drown in debt. Fact is, while there are some people who bought at the top of the last peak and won't be able to hold on, there are probably many more that bought when prices were dramatically lower and are either sitting on or locked in huge profits. Some of those people no doubt threw some of those profits into more property at the "peak." So what else is new? From my experience, the real losers are the people who sit on the side lines and pooh-pooh the doers.

Developers are continuing on doing what they do because they have learned to look beyond their noses. Its ridiculous to believe that the Gulf coast is "over." When the last piece of property is developed to its highest and best use for the foreseeable future, then it will be over.

I'd be interested in hearing what you have actually done, beyond observing and commenting?

Edit: I see that the 3.2% increase was addressed while I was typing. I'll leave my post up anyway.

Why don't you read your link? A 3.2% INCREASE is not a "slower" tourist season. The first three months of 2005 was the most lucrative quarter in Orlando tourism history - and that's coming off the 4 hurricanes of 2004. Your MO pretty much comes down to throwing as much crap as you can think of against the wall and hope some of sticks.

From my perspective it is you who is following the herd. The herd is not screaming "buy real estate." The reverse is true. It appears that you get your jollies by laughing at the fools who bought at the top. History shows that unless those "fools" are overleveraged, it is they who will be having the last laugh. Regarding PRIME real estate, what looks high today will look cheap down the road. The coast between Gulf Shores and Carabelle 10 - 15 years out bears no resemblence to what it looks like today. I'm sure that pains you, but fact is a lot of fortunes are going to be made.

According to your logic, the intelligent investor goes in and out of markets at just the right time, taking profits and leaving the all the fools behind to drown in debt. Fact is, while there are some people who bought at the top of the last peak and won't be able to hold on, there are probably many more that bought when prices were dramatically lower and are either sitting on or locked in huge profits. Some of those people no doubt threw some of those profits into more property at the "peak." So what else is new? From my experience, the real losers are the people who sit on the side lines and pooh-pooh the doers.

Developers are continuing on doing what they do because they have learned to look beyond their noses. Its ridiculous to believe that the Gulf coast is "over." When the last piece of property is developed to its highest and best use for the foreseeable future, then it will be over.

I'd be interested in hearing what you have actually done, beyond observing and commenting?

Edit: I see that the 3.2% increase was addressed while I was typing. I'll leave my post up anyway.

Well said WiLe - I think many of us echo your sentiments...

I agree, WiLe -- Well stated. A 3.2% increase in tourism doesn't mean less people on the beach. With time, the people buying at the peaks will be sitting pretty in the future. It is not timing the market that pays, it is time in the market.

Well said WiLe - I think many of us echo your sentiments...

Ditto

Judging by the traffic I've seen here during the holidays, the 3.2% growth has begun!

Since someone brought this up.....
A 3.2% increase in tourism means an additional 2.5 million visitors over last year.

Welcome y'all! (This is from WOAI in San Antonio).

Florida tourism expected to jump 3.2 percent next year
LAST UPDATE: 12/15/2005 10:14:20 AM


FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) - About 3.2 percent more visitors will come to Florida next year, despite worries from the public about the busy hurricane seasons, the state's tourism marketing agency said Thursday.

That outlook is higher than the national forecast of 2 percent more visitors to the U.S. next year, Visit Florida said.

The agency recently said that Florida is on track to surpass the 80 million visitor mark for the first time this year. If that figure holds, and the forecast is correct, that would mean an additional 2.5 million people would visit the state in 2006.

"If we did not have the challenge of hurricanes, our visitor numbers could be higher," said Bud Nocera, president and chief executive of Visit Florida.

Tourism is Florida's biggest industy, with annual revenues of about $57 billion.

Things just don't look that glum do they Shelly?

Things just don't look that glum do they Shelly?

Not for me...but that's because I'm not hoping to unload pre-construction condos--I have no dogs in this hunt. They say the markets run on greed and fear; we've already experienced the former (which IMO destroyed my state), now the latter is just beginning to kick in. The big real estate plays for the next couple of years will be auction houses and manufacturing "For Sale" signs.

Why don't you read your link? A 3.2% INCREASE is not a "slower" tourist season.

It is "slower" if one experienced a 7% increases in years past. Let's put it this way: If condo prices increased 25% in the last 3 years and now condo prices will increase 5% in 2006 year versus 25% in 2005 that would be "slower" appreciation--No?

Personally, I think tourism will do OK as long as folks who recently bought rental houses/condos at SKY-HIGH prices (and increasing costs) don't expect to crack a profit. Nothing will scare the tourists away faster than being told their "usual" rental condo went from $1400 to $2500 per week.