Jan Metro Mkt #'s

;-) ...inside source and I already have plans!!!! Now, I just need some Alys Beach house plans!!!!

don't forget lots of guest bedrooms for your monkey friends!


and I'm walking to the lounge right now.....

don't forget lots of guest bedrooms for your monkey friends!


and I'm walking to the lounge right now.....

...right behind ya'!!!!

Cork, it seems that at least this gives some idea as to where we are in the process...traditional theory suggests that volume is the primary indicator...prices overall tend to adjust toward the end of the cycle..ie the bottom thereby souring sentiment...Red

Redfisher,

I agree. What makes this particular data difficult to use in predicting where we are in the cycle is that January 2005 was still in the "peak" period, in spite of the 3rd quarter 2004 seasonal drop. It wasn't until May 2005 that the bottom began to drop and then again in July 2005 so when comparing today to January 2005 we're comparing today to peak figures. My thoughts are that it probably will be May 2006 until we see if we're gonna start a meaningful upward trend again (when we can compare this years volume to last year's hit).

;-) ...inside source and I already have plans!!!! Now, I just need some Alys Beach house plans!!!!

Plenty of great plans to chose from. Good luck.

Cork, I would think that by definition we are not near the bottom...prices dropped significantly in both the timeframes you speak and still no activity...therefore they must continue to drop until volume levels increase...that plus interest rate cuts in the 1st qtr 07-3rd qtr 07 might provide some catalyst to stabilize prices

Cork, I would think that by definition we are not near the bottom...prices dropped significantly in both the timeframes you speak and still no activity...therefore they must continue to drop until volume levels increase...that plus interest rate cuts in the 1st qtr 07-3rd qtr 07 might provide some catalyst to stabilize prices

redfisher, tell me more about rate cuts for 07. Short term/long term, what are you reading???

If my accounting is correct sales volume is down 90% year over year for 30A. Does that not frightening all of us?

If my accounting is correct sales volume is down 90% year over year for 30A. Does that not frightening all of us?

It depends if you are for or against sales, and your timeline. If you're all for sales, then the numbers probably look pretty good compared to 2000. If you're only worried about what happens in a 12-month period then you might not like the change.

The numbers from year to year are what they are. We need realistic disscussion. Don't kill the messager. I have a very significant interest in SoWal's success too.

Cork, I would think that by definition we are not near the bottom...prices dropped significantly in both the timeframes you speak and still no activity...therefore they must continue to drop until volume levels increase...that plus interest rate cuts in the 1st qtr 07-3rd qtr 07 might provide some catalyst to stabilize prices

Redfisher, My use of the bottom was colloquial. Will rephrase. We were riding high and the rug got pulled out.

Prices have not dropped. List Prices have dropped. When I saw homes sell for $640K in May 2004 , resell for $850 in Sept 2004 and then relist for $1.2 million in January 2005, I laughed. If someone paid that ridiculous price, they made the seller's pipe dream come true. We saw those ridiculous list prices start to drop when people refused to pay it during the summer of 2005. Then when the more realistically priced homes started selling, of course they paid less than the people who made poor decisions.

The facts are that the average sold price in Jan 2006 is significantly higher than the average sold price in Jan 2005. When people stopped buying, the number of sold transactions decreased for DSF's by 75% yet the total sales dollars only decreased by 60% which means the average price of sold homes in 2006 were higher, 64% higher! The same is true for condos and land on 30A over the timeframe but to a lesser extent.

This area is now being bought by the wealthy who can afford to pay whatever they want. There are plenty of them out there. Will the number of transactions decrease again but I guess that could be expected as the pool of eligible buyers decrease. My personal belief is that if I sit tight for a while, these wealthy buyers will bring the values of my property up even more than it is already.

Cork, I would respectfully take issue w/several statements..

1st..the numbers were from walton county tax sale records based on subdivision...i'm not referring to list prices...i believe closing prices have dropped...however, i don't see what difference it makes...lower listings create lower closings....its arbitrary calling some prices ridiculous...ridiculous or not, those are closed prices that serve as valid comps regardless of opinion...and to your point r/e "realistic" prices, these jan volume numbers indicate that they aren't realistic enough yet...

2nd..As stated previously, traditional demand theory suggests that volume is the leading indicator-pricing is the more lagging indicator...in fact, the reluctance of sellers to adjust prices could be secondary contributor to the severity of the downturn...so, for you "Cork" to be able to pinpoint the two months (which you did correctly) when volume dried up...you would almost have to shorten the horizon of data to determine position in the cycle...we only have #'s for jan 06...it seems to me that yoy comparisons at this point offer only consolation...thanks, Red

Cork, I would respectfully take issue w/several statements..

1st..the numbers were from walton county tax sale records based on subdivision...i'm not referring to list prices...i believe closing prices have dropped...however, i don't see what difference it makes...lower listings create lower closings....its arbitrary calling some prices ridiculous...ridiculous or not, those are closed prices that serve as valid comps regardless of opinion...and to your point r/e "realistic" prices, these jan volume numbers indicate that they aren't realistic enough yet...

2nd..As stated previously, traditional demand theory suggests that volume is the leading indicator-pricing is the more lagging indicator...in fact, the reluctance of sellers to adjust prices could be secondary contributor to the severity of the downturn...so, for you "Cork" to be able to pinpoint the two months (which you did correctly) when volume dried up...you would almost have to shorten the horizon of data to determine position in the cycle...we only have #'s for jan 06...it seems to me that yoy comparisons at this point offer only consolation...thanks, Red

who's your rate guru redfisher????

Bob, I believe the history is an average of 6-12 mos from the time the fed has stopped raising to when it begins cutting again...Red

Cork, I would respectfully take issue w/several statements..
1st..the numbers were from walton county tax sale records based on subdivision...i'm not referring to list prices...i believe closing prices have dropped...

Red, I don't disagree with you that particular subdivisions have some sales that have sold at lower than comparables. First, keep in mind that you are apparently using tax records for your data which is a couple of months behind and include sales that are not arm's length transactions. Also, while I haven't reviewed every subdivision on 30A, it's common knowledge that the JOE communities have taken a hit. I think this is largely due to excessive penalties for buildout times. Alys prices have sold for significantly more and I'd have to check but Im not aware of any properties that have had bargain sales in Rosemary.


however, i don't see what difference it makes...lower listings create lower closings....its arbitrary calling some prices ridiculous...ridiculous or not, those are closed prices that serve as valid comps regardless of opinion...and to your point r/e "realistic" prices, these jan volume numbers indicate that they aren't realistic enough yet...

To me it does make a difference. I can ask for $15 million for my house but it doesn't mean I'm gonna get it. This is what happened and a few people took the bait. My point being that there are not that many comps at those "ridiculous" prices relative to the total sales.

2nd..As stated previously, traditional demand theory suggests that volume is the leading indicator-pricing is the more lagging indicator...in fact, the reluctance of sellers to adjust prices could be secondary contributor to the severity of the downturn...

I'm sure that seller reluctance to drop prices is fueling the slowdown in sales but that tells me that the majority of owners on 30A are more resistant to economic changes. They don't all need to dump their places which will drive prices down.

so, for you "Cork" to be able to pinpoint the two months (which you did correctly) when volume dried up...you would almost have to shorten the horizon of data to determine position in the cycle...we only have #'s for jan 06...it seems to me that yoy comparisons at this point offer only consolation...thanks, Red

If you'll note my post stated "What makes this particular data difficult to use in predicting where we are in the cycle is " and "My thoughts are that it probably will be May 2006 until we see if we're gonna start a meaningful upward trend".

Not quite sure why you want to debate it. I make no predictions whatsoever. Didn't say everything will be Rosey in May. You seem to have a prediction that we're ready to crash and burn which in my opinion has no foundation at this point. Returning to a healthy market with modest appreciation is not mass forclosures, bankruptcies and people losing their butts. Are you an economist? Not intended to be sarcastic Just asking if you are a professional from the language you use.

I would hope that some people would appreciate the honest data that is being posted on this board rather than receiving anectdotal reports of a strengthening market. They'll sit tight, watch their market and make wise decisions.

Cork, it was not my desire to seem confrontational and I don't have a negative bias (Nobody wants to hear good news more than you and I) It just doesn't look like we're low enough yet...How low?-I don't have a clue...But wherever it is, let get there and get it over with...

If I were to debate anyone (which I won't), it would be those who see a slowdown and throw their property out at an unrealistic price just to make themselves feel better about taking "some" action...that just seems to waste everyone's time...if you want to sell it, price it to move...

To your point, I rely on the honest data and have thought that a lot of what gets posted in these real estate threads is just baseless venting...As an aside, the Walton County Clerk's website has tax data w/scanned forms updated as of yesterday-extremely current...thanks, Red

Red,
Let's all keep our fingers crossed! Not sure if you're a full time resident or not but Summer's coming! Soon it will be back to free movies, concerts, soaking in the sun and chilling. My favorite time in South Walton.

Bob, I believe the history is an average of 6-12 mos from the time the fed has stopped raising to when it begins cutting again...Red

thanks redfisher