Time to buy JOE

Can you explain to us moneytards how this is bad for our area? What type of results on the ground (or to the ground) do you mean?

Happy New Years My Friends and Foes!

My first order of business for Smiling Joe:

JOE BEAT INTEL
JOE BEAT INTEL
JOE BEAT INTEL

Thanks to RD for posting the updates in my absence...here is the latest results of the fantasy portfolio:
_____________________________________________________
Fantasy Portfolio Results (as of market close Dec 30):

STOCK/VALUE/GAIN-LOSS

JOE/$2,166.58/+8.33%

SPY/$2057.09/+2.85%

INTC/$2005.72/+0.29%

($2,000 put in each stock effective on market close Nov 4th)
______________________________________________________

With that out of the way...what a couple of weeks it's been for me!!

First, I've personally survived "Planes, Trains and Automobiles--The Sequel!" both coming and going through Europe--Oy Vey! We were better off than most, thanks to the hospitality of friends and acquaintances abroad who put us up when we got stuck.

Once we thought we were in the clear--it was "Planes, Trains and Automobiles--The Three-quel!!" here in the states...more snow & ice in the Northeast!

Then, come to find out I missed the "Mother of All Squeeze Plays" and JOE selling their soul to the devil by bringing Berkowitz and Fernandez on to the board of directors!

But, what I find most disturbing, is that our area has now become Fairholmes' Biyatch, :shock: and anyone who knows anything about this type of (in Fairholmes case) "non-Hedge Fund," they're all for wringing out every single, bloody dollar they can get to gain profit for themselves and their shareholders...good news for JOE stockholders(?) but discomforting as to the future direction of this area.

On well--for Auld Lang Syne, ya'll....on with the game and 2011!

Shel.

I don't agree with your characterization of Fairholm (Berkowitz) as some possessed activist hedge fund, hell bent on creating short term shareholder value (ala Wall Street 1). Berkowitz and Fairholm think South Walton is valuable. David Einhorn, has relied on a junior analyst, who tells him that South Walton is worthless, because it is not Miami. Berkowitz lives in South Florida, and can see the charm and value in Pandhandle Florida. He is long only. He is patient. He has the best track record of any fund manager in the last 20 years. He does hard work before making investments, and has a deep value bent. Einhorn does hard work too... but is prone to being more alarmist, short term oriented, and more mistake prone. Afterall, Einhorn runs a hedge fund, whereas Berkowitz runs a long only investment fund. Einhorn might like JOE one minute, and hate it the next, depending on a technical indicator or a 'hot tip'.

Einhorn is prone to vanity from my experience as well, so since Berko's work agrees with my own work on JOE, I'm inclined to side with Berkowitz, b/c I also feel that New York centric hedge fund managers don't have a good feel or understanding about South Walton, and can't even understand why anyone would want to have a 2nd home in SoWal -

as the money market and the real estate are suffering allot due to recession do you really think this is the time to have that big investment . as per my opinion no . and i would love to know about yours ? plz share

That is absolutely the WORST piece of investment advice EVER. 50 Years? Do you understand JOES business model. They don't sell widgets or services. They have a limited inventory of land. In 50 years, JOE will be out of business. If successful, all land will be sold and remaining cash will be paid out to shareholders (with a terrible return after considering ongoing operating costs, corporate income taxes and personal taxes on the dividend to shareholders upon dissolution) or they will have gone bankrupt long before due to inability to cover operating costs.

At least CROX, INTEL, etc make products and do not have a finite supply of inventory from which to produce revenues and profits.

50 years-you lost that bet the minute you made it.

I actually would seriously doubt that Intel will be making chips for Personal Computers in 50 years, but I'm pretty sure people will still be taking vacations. Intel could become irrelevant actually within a few years, as others move into its turf a commoditizin PC chip business, and Intel misses the move to Tablets and Handsets. The PC is becoming less relevant, as storage and software is now in the "cloud", and a PC is increasingly becoming a shell with a screen and a keyboard, and a pipe to the "cloud." I won't be so irreverant however to say "you've lost that bet" the minute you made it, b/c Intel has strong cash flows, and is trading at what appears to be a cheap multiple vs. many other companies. That low multiple could be a buying opportunity, or it could simply mean that the market is correctly anticipating that earnings viability into the future are in question.

Thanks for playing, I'm sure I'll hear from you again if the S&P or Intel every start outperforming JOE, but that's probably unlikely. JOE was undervalued, and then someone of influence cried fire in the crowded theater back in November. The panic is over. Now the only people panicing, are those lemmings that followed Einhorn's junior analyst over the cliff,into determining that North Florida is useless, b/c he had no New Yorker friends who went there, or had heard of it.

YouTube - buy the dip

homeboy, I have seen this video a couple weeks ago. I thought it was hilarious too.

Still waiting to hear how you valued JOE pre 2006 and how you are valuing it now.

You were negative JOE with a $5-6 Billion valuation when they had $1 billion in revenue. Now you are pro JOE with a $2 billion valuation and only $100 million in revenue.

Just wanting to understand your valuation methodology because it doesn't seem to make sense.

But that mega casino on Joe land is going to change all of that.

But that mega casino on Joe land is going to change all of that.

Its an asset play. You don't do a discounted cash flow on an asset play, that is cyclical. You buy cyclical companies when people, like you, think they're expensive, based on an earnings or revenue multiple, and sell them counterlogically, when they appear cheap on those same metrics. Thats hard to get because it doesn't make sense to many at first, but it's cyclical company 101... I can assure you that once this lesson is learned it will never be forgotten. Mining companies were expensive as hell, on an earnings multiple basis, back a decade ago. That would have been the time to buy. When they now start talking about Freeport McMoran, or Teck Cominco (TCK) or Newmont, Barrick or Goldcorp as "cheap" on an earnings multiple basis soon, it will be time to run, it may be already.

JOE tacked on another 10 % or so this week alone... but we'll await the official results, they might be coming out soon.

I don't agree with your characterization of Fairholm (Berkowitz) as some possessed activist hedge fund, hell bent on creating short term shareholder value (ala Wall Street 1). Berkowitz and Fairholm think South Walton is valuable. David Einhorn, has relied on a junior analyst, who tells him that South Walton is worthless, because it is not Miami. Berkowitz lives in South Florida, and can see the charm and value in Pandhandle Florida. He is long only. He is patient. He has the best track record of any fund manager in the last 20 years. He does hard work before making investments, and has a deep value bent. Einhorn does hard work too... but is prone to being more alarmist, short term oriented, and more mistake prone. Afterall, Einhorn runs a hedge fund, whereas Berkowitz runs a long only investment fund. Einhorn might like JOE one minute, and hate it the next, depending on a technical indicator or a 'hot tip'.

Einhorn is prone to vanity from my experience as well, so since Berko's work agrees with my own work on JOE, I'm inclined to side with Berkowitz, b/c I also feel that New York centric hedge fund managers don't have a good feel or understanding about South Walton, and can't even understand why anyone would want to have a 2nd home in SoWal -

But JOE is out of the good stuff to sell in SoWal.

Plus JOE owns thousands of lots NOT in SoWal-Tallahassee, Jacksonville and Port St Joe.

Going back to 1992, JOE loses to the S&P 500

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

But JOE is out of the good stuff to sell in SoWal.

Plus JOE owns thousands of lots NOT in SoWal-Tallahassee, Jacksonville and Port St Joe.

Going back to 1992, JOE loses to the S&P 500

St. Joe Company (The) Common St Stock Chart | JOE Interactive Chart - Yahoo! Finance

interesting historical observations buzz. what do you think on a go forward basis though? Are they really out of the good stuff? Bears on JOE are valuing their land at around 3 or 4K per acre. If there are any remaining acres around Watercolor, or Watersound, where there are about 6 lots per acre, I'd like to buy an acre for 100K, if I could - that would represent 5 or 6 lots at 17-20K a pop. It also represents acreage at THAT low price, that is about 3300% higher than the bearish analyst from New York City puts on the "redneck riviera". I think it is has been a serious mistake for Einhorn, but I'm guessing he's changed his mind already, although I sincerely hope he lets his ego get in the way, and doubles down. Anything you like here Buzz?
Did I mention I also like Regions FInancial at this point.

... if you really KNOW that's what's going to happen, then why the HECK don't you get yourself a margin trading account, and short the bejesus out of JOE?

The only way I see JOE not being around in 5 years in its present form, is if it has been taken over, publicly or privately.

homeboy, JOE is up another 20% or so in the last ten days or so. I sincerely hope you havent' shorted it, but if you did, you may want to note that this morning, the company cancelled the Standstill Agreement that was in place, with respect to Fairholme. I don't have any insight specifically into this, but it does raise the possibility that a buyout could be being considered by the Board at Joe in the coming days.

homeboy, JOE is up another 20% or so in the last ten days or so. I sincerely hope you havent' shorted it, but if you did, you may want to note that this morning, the company cancelled the Standstill Agreement that was in place, with respect to Fairholme. I don't have any insight specifically into this, but it does raise the possibility that a buyout could be being considered by the Board at Joe in the coming days.

We are now quickly approaching where I got on this train. Decisions, decisions.

We are now quickly approaching where I got on this train. Decisions, decisions.

It's risen a quick 25 % or so, in the last couple months. I see this JOE movement as a VERY positive forecast for South Walton for 2011 and beyond. Obviously the stock is just a forecasting mechanism, but lets hope it is correct that beach real estate in the pandhandle is stabilizing this year, and probably headed higher in some categories or locales on the pandhandle. I think in an environment where the whole world, minus Europe is going gangbusters, and you have inflation, and our FED printing money like crazy, people might be very surprised how South Walton values snap back, harder and faster than nearly everyone would expect.

St. Joe Shares Popped: What You Need to Know (BLK, JOE)

"Now what: With seriously high-caliber investors on both sides of the scuffle, it's tough to decide whom to support. Thankfully, I'm more than happy to watch this one play out from the sidelines. Now that Fairholme no longer has the standstill agreement blocking it, it seems very possible that the fund could look for ways to take St. Joe private so that it can tend to its business without the pressure of the public markets."

I could see JOE being taken private - over 40% is owned by Fairholme and Blackrock.

St. Joe Shares Popped: What You Need to Know (BLK, JOE)

"Now what: With seriously high-caliber investors on both sides of the scuffle, it's tough to decide whom to support. Thankfully, I'm more than happy to watch this one play out from the sidelines. Now that Fairholme no longer has the standstill agreement blocking it, it seems very possible that the fund could look for ways to take St. Joe private so that it can tend to its business without the pressure of the public markets."

I could see JOE being taken private - over 40% is owned by Fairholme and Blackrock.

me too. but i'm not a great prognosticator. Shelly is on the other side of this one ;-)

me too. but i'm not a great prognosticator. Shelly is on the other side of this one ;-)

My crystal ball is in the shop for repairs.

interesting historical observations buzz. what do you think on a go forward basis though? Are they really out of the good stuff? Bears on JOE are valuing their land at around 3 or 4K per acre. If there are any remaining acres around Watercolor, or Watersound, where there are about 6 lots per acre, I'd like to buy an acre for 100K, if I could - that would represent 5 or 6 lots at 17-20K a pop. It also represents acreage at THAT low price, that is about 3300% higher than the bearish analyst from New York City puts on the "redneck riviera". I think it is has been a serious mistake for Einhorn, but I'm guessing he's changed his mind already, although I sincerely hope he lets his ego get in the way, and doubles down. Anything you like here Buzz?
Did I mention I also like Regions FInancial at this point.

Still haven't gotten your valuation methodology. Sounds to me like you bought in way too high and are hoping upon all hope that the stock makes an unlikely, short term return to where you bought in so you can dump and run.

In terms of your analysis above, you completely forgot to take into consideration the huge amount of infrastructure cost to develop the land. If you bought some of that acreage at $100k per acre you would likely lose money after putting in the necessary infrastructure to develop the land BEFORE you could actually sell lots.

Remember, most of JOEs land is swamp or near swamp land. There are hundreds of thousands of similar swamp land along the coast of Ms, La, Al, and other areas of Fl south of Walton County. It will be a long, long, long time, if ever, before any of this land will have any appreciable value. The limited number of near ocean acreage has some value but the rest of it is only worth the value of the timber. The can't give away already developed lots in very near ocean locations such as The Preserve, Cypress Dunes, Cypress Breeze, etc. What makes you think the swamp land much farther from the beach will sell for more than the lots in these near ocean developments.

Regarding the short term run up--the greater fool and short term trading theories are at work here. The Company is not worth any more than $1 billion, if that. And, I am talking about REAL underlying value--in other words, the how much investors will ULTIMATELY get in cash from there investments, not what traders buy and sell at day to day based on the latest way in which the wind blows.

Please post your valuation methodology that supports your ultimate valuation of the company. Until that time, your words are not credible. They are the words of a day trader hoping for a quick fix.

Good luck if you are truly buying and holding for 50 years which is the advice you gave everyone (which I seriously doubt).

It's risen a quick 25 % or so, in the last couple months. I see this JOE movement as a VERY positive forecast for South Walton for 2011 and beyond. Obviously the stock is just a forecasting mechanism, but lets hope it is correct that beach real estate in the pandhandle is stabilizing this year, and probably headed higher in some categories or locales on the pandhandle. I think in an environment where the whole world, minus Europe is going gangbusters, and you have inflation, and our FED printing money like crazy, people might be very surprised how South Walton values snap back, harder and faster than nearly everyone would expect.

The stock has been up and down between 15 and 30 per share for the past 2.5 years. Why does the current short term up tick bode very well for SoWal in 2011? The bulk of JOES holdings aren't even in Walton County.

The forecast for 2011 by many indicates a record number of foreclosures. Prices continue to decline in SoWal and will likely continue for quite some time, albeit at a much slower pace. Land prices are still inflated in the major 30A developments like Watersound, Watercolor, Rosemary, and especially Alys. Until the land prices stop falling, overall property values will continue to decline. Way, way too much inventory in the market for prices to stabilize over the relative short term.

homeboy, JOE is up another 20% or so in the last ten days or so. I sincerely hope you havent' shorted it, but if you did, you may want to note that this morning, the company cancelled the Standstill Agreement that was in place, with respect to Fairholme. I don't have any insight specifically into this, but it does raise the possibility that a buyout could be being considered by the Board at Joe in the coming days.

I don't short. And, I would not touch JOE, period. A history of very poor management, losing money hand over fist.

I would like to know when you believe JOE will actually turn a profit again?? And, how will they begin turning a profit.

Buyout? Yep, there is always a greater fool.

I don't short. and I never slice

And, I would not touch JOE, period. A history of very poor management, losing money hand over fist.

poor mgmt, losing money, sounds like an attractive short to you no?
.

do you work for Einhorn?

The stock has been up and down between 15 and 30 per share for the past 2.5 years. Why does the current short term up tick bode very well for SoWal in 2011? The bulk of JOES holdings aren't even in Walton County.

The forecast for 2011 by many indicates a record number of foreclosures. Prices continue to decline in SoWal and will likely continue for quite some time, albeit at a much slower pace. wanna bet, that many will be wrong? Land prices are still inflated in the major 30A developments like Watersound, Watercolor, Rosemary, and especially Alys. Until the land prices stop falling, overall property values will continue to decline. Way, way too much inventory in the market for prices to stabilize over the relative short term...

.....

do you work for Einhorn?

Still beating around the bush because you dont have answers to any of the questions?

Check the other thread I just posted about Joe.

It's risen a quick 25 % or so, in the last couple months. I see this JOE movement as a VERY positive forecast for South Walton for 2011 and beyond. Obviously the stock is just a forecasting mechanism, but lets hope it is correct that beach real estate in the pandhandle is stabilizing this year, and probably headed higher in some categories or locales on the pandhandle. I think in an environment where the whole world, minus Europe is going gangbusters, and you have inflation, and our FED printing money like crazy, people might be very surprised how South Walton values snap back, harder and faster than nearly everyone would expect.

I have never been one to get in and out of a stock. More buy and hold for a few years, so I am thinking I am just going to put this behind me and hold on for the long haul. I gave up on gambling and starting buying stocks instead several years back and still feel that I am pretty much money ahead so far. Maybe my luck will hold. Now everyone switch to Sprint and go buy a new Ford for me.

I have never been one to get in and out of a stock. More buy and hold for a few years, so I am thinking I am just going to put this behind me and hold on for the long haul. I gave up on gambling and starting buying stocks instead several years back and still feel that I am pretty much money ahead so far. Maybe my luck will hold. Now everyone switch to Sprint and go buy a new Ford for me.

I think Sprint is a double this year.