back in 2006 I suggested to folks to short JOE, if they couldn't sell there home in South Walton, as a proxy for doing the same. I think the pendulum has swung ridiculously far to the negative side, and that the Short Joe trade is cooked, done. I think it's time to buy JOE, and lock the shares away for 50 years.
good luck to all.
Replies
179
Beach Lover
Thanks.
Well, he (shellly) was giving updates, until it was obvious that Intel was going nowhere, and JOE was going up 50%.
This is for the last 5 years, and it hasn't been much bettter for JOE over the last 1 or 2 years. Also, are you ignoring the fact that INTEL offers a dividend upwards of 3%? My opinion is that with JOE, it ain't so.
Beach FanaticAuthor
This is for the last 5 years, and it hasn't been much bettter for JOE over the last 1 or 2 years. Also, are you ignoring the fact that INTEL offers a dividend upwards of 3%? My opinion is that with JOE, it ain't so.
Thanks Jesus for showing us your faith in Intel. If you read above much further, you'll see that I'm suggesting JOE as a holding for 50 years - back at the beginning of November, 2010 about 12 or so weeks ago. So to me, your point about what the stocks have done in the rear view mirror going back a few years is interesting, but not of limited use in telling me where they're going in the future.
I am ignoring the dividend for the last 12 weeks or so that INTC spins out, because it's added about 0.19 percent so far, to the total return for INTC... dividends add up, and so they're something to consider over the long term, but dividend policies change, especially with technology companies, that could be surpassed in 'technology' next year, decade you name it.
Beach FanaticAuthor
They spent millions relocating thier key executives to Walton County, despite eight straight quarters of non-stop losses and burning cash. Their CEO waived paying the St. Joe Foundation fee when he purchased his home in Watercolor, because he is apparently special. A month before they sue BP for $1B, their CEO tells the press the oil spill really hasn't affected JOE because they are not really a residential company anymore, rather more of a commercial company. They donate land to build an airport in a swamp that his continually fogged in (I have been returned to Atlanta twice already and my Mom spent the night in Orlando due to fog), based on the premise that build it and they will come. Who is coming to the airport? There is no distribution need to be locatd next to the airport, nor is their freight capacity. Hotels? Why would you stay there when you can drive ten minutes and be on the beach. Management simply has no clue, and now they are losing control of the Board of Directors to outside investors due to their inept management.
Coondog, you're letting minor issues get in the way of seeing the forest here (with JOE, the 'forest' is literal too
Executive compensation is being slashed going forward, because it has been excessive - agreed. Bruce Berkowitz agrees and is forcing change right now on your point; your concerns on that are legitimate, but they are already 'baked in" to the stock price, whats not yet baked in is an efficient, do no harm management team. What you're buying when you buy JOE is a piece of Northwest Florida at timberland price, in an era where we're printing money, devaluing paper assets in favor of hard assets. So the value is there if you agree with me that a chunk of JOE's land (2 percent, 5 percent, 15%) is worth much more than $2200 per acre. For me, about 90 % of JOE's land is worth about $4000 an acre, because I use a higher price for timberland. To me about 8% of the land is worth $23,000 an acre. And about 2% of the acreage is worth about $950,000 per acre on average in a recovered economy.
JOE's NAV using the above assumptions is somewhere around $100 a share, but you have to back out the time used to surface the net asset value. Since long term interest rates are very low right now, I'm backing out less than others might, but I get a present value of 52-56, but that will probably prove conservative
cheers
SoWal Expert
Rarely have I seen you so wrong. There probably are very few pockets in America more represented by one publicly traded company that acts as a proxy for the value of said area as JOE for South Walton. Sure, Joe's holdings go beyond south walton in the Pandhandle, but South Walton's entire economy is tied to real estate essentially and tourism, as is JOE's. Very few areas in America have such a proxy. If you want to buy Atlanta, buying Coke won't do justice to your train of thought, nor AT&T nor UPS... all global businesses, and the same is true of most cities. If you want to be "long" memphis, buying FedEx is related, but doesn't really get you there, as their fortunes are tied to global logistics...
Scooterbug, your statements above are surprisingly ill-considered.
I have spent years getting a firsthand look at how JOE does business and how it interacts with the community. They are the antithesis of companies I choose to invest in on EVERY point.
1) Horrible environmental record
2) Do not pay a dividend
3) Lots of lobbying politicians to get the rules changed in their favor
4) Do not treat their employees well
5) More interested in the short term spreadsheet than long term planning
6) Leadership from outside instead of promoting from within the company
7) High turnover rate
8) Business model based on constant expansion and sales of a finite commodity
My point was that Sowal and Joe are 2 very different beasts - and I would invest in Sowal.
I would also invest in some of the great people working for Joe/Noble House/etc. but that isn't an option either.
Beach Lover
Bruce Berkowitz is resigning from the St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE) board this morning, as witnessed in this 13-D filing.
In an email disclosed in the filing, Berkowitz writes:
Directors of St. Joe:
The two of us have discussed the situation at St. Joe and its nominating and governance process. We will not stand for re-election except as part of a Board where a majority of the directors are committed to shareholder value, pay for performance, and effective corporate governance.
After working with the current Board over these past weeks, we have concluded that the current Board is not in a position to propose such a slate of directors.
Accordingly, we withdraw our names from consideration by the Nominating and Governance Committee for election at the Annual General Meeting, and we resign from the Board of St. Joe effective immediately.
In an email disclosed in the filing, Berkowitz writes:
Directors of St. Joe:
The two of us have discussed the situation at St. Joe and its nominating and governance process. We will not stand for re-election except as part of a Board where a majority of the directors are committed to shareholder value, pay for performance, and effective corporate governance.
After working with the current Board over these past weeks, we have concluded that the current Board is not in a position to propose such a slate of directors.
Accordingly, we withdraw our names from consideration by the Nominating and Governance Committee for election at the Annual General Meeting, and we resign from the Board of St. Joe effective immediately.
Beach FanaticAuthor
I have spent years getting a firsthand look at how JOE does business and how it interacts with the community. They are the antithesis of companies I choose to invest in on EVERY point.
1) Horrible environmental record
2) Do not pay a dividend
3) Lots of lobbying politicians to get the rules changed in their favor
4) Do not treat their employees well
5) More interested in the short term spreadsheet than long term planning
6) Leadership from outside instead of promoting from within the company
7) High turnover rate
8) Business model based on constant expansion and sales of a finite commodity
My point was that Sowal and Joe are 2 very different beasts - and I would invest in Sowal.
I would also invest in some of the great people working for Joe/Noble House/etc. but that isn't an option either.
Management has been grossly overpaid, and probably as you say "hasn't interacted with the community" how you'd like to see them. A lot of real estate company managements are not loved now, after the biggest bust in 4 generations, so partly this is all timing.
Management is in the process of being changed. Interaction with the community shall improve with this I suppose. They're going to be privately held, and managed for the long term soon. Stay tuned. or don't. You are hard pressed to find any other corner of this country as neatly represented by one publicly traded company as JOE is representative of a liquid form of investment in South Walton.
SoWal Expert
No matter what I say, you'll just hear what you want. :roll:
Dude, JOE sucks as a stock. Get over it already.
Excuses, BS, and incompetent execs do not a good investment make.
I'll take the money you want me to invest in JOE and spend it at local businesses not trying to strip mine my home.
Even if I lose by your standards, I'll win by mine.
Dude, JOE sucks as a stock. Get over it already.
Excuses, BS, and incompetent execs do not a good investment make.
I'll take the money you want me to invest in JOE and spend it at local businesses not trying to strip mine my home.
Even if I lose by your standards, I'll win by mine.
Beach Comber
JOE has been facinating to watch over the past couple of years...and its takeover is becoming a story that could rival Burrough and Helyar's classic book, "Barbarians at the Gate."
http://http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/02/15/what-charlie-crist-wants-with-st-joe/
http://http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/02/15/what-charlie-crist-wants-with-st-joe/
Beach FanaticAuthor
No matter what I say, you'll just hear what you want. :roll:
Dude, JOE sucks as a stock. Get over it already.
Excuses, BS, and incompetent execs do not a good investment make.
I'll take the money you want me to invest in JOE and spend it at local businesses not trying to strip mine my home.
Even if I lose by your standards, I'll win by mine.
easy Ghandi. I'm going to take all my money ( and maybe some JOE profits from the last couple months) and pour them into local businesses, locally owned, organically fed, globally thoughtful, locally active. Even if I lose by your standards, I'll win by mine.
But its hard to argue with "dude" JOE "sucks" as a stock, and when you boldface that JOE is 'not' a good investment, that's when I backaway from the dialogue, b/c you've already clearly won, in bold, because you also hate Walmart and shop locally pass the bong
Beach FanaticAuthor
JOE has been facinating to watch over the past couple of years...and its takeover is becoming a story that could rival Burrough and Helyar's classic book, "Barbarians at the Gate."
http://http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/02/15/what-charlie-crist-wants-with-st-joe/
fascinating... agreed. welcome Austin!!
Beach Fanatic
PCL Basic Chart | Plum Creek Timber Company, Inc. Stock - Yahoo! Finance
RE: TIMBERLAND
Compare Plum Creek Timber with JOE
Not only has it trounced JOE, PCL currently pays a 1.68 dividend.
THIS IS NOT INTENDED TO BE INVESTMENT ADVICE.
WE DO NOT RECOMMEND OWNING INDIVIDUAL STOCKS.
I AM A REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR IN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA.
CONSULT WITH A FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISIONS.
Beach Lover
Hire a consultant to sell then file a poison pill? What?
UPDATE 1-St Joe Co adopts shareholder rights plan | Reuters
The fight between management and Berkowitz will be a case study in future MBA classes. Crist should make it entertaining as well.
UPDATE 1-St Joe Co adopts shareholder rights plan | Reuters
The fight between management and Berkowitz will be a case study in future MBA classes. Crist should make it entertaining as well.
SoWal Expert
Interesting - they said the reason they did this was to deter hostile takeover attempts.
Beach Lover
Interesting - they said the reason they did this was to deter hostile takeover attempts.
Not as much a traditional hostile takeover than a shareholder takeover. Classic battle between management and shareholders played out in public and in our back yard.
SoWal Insider
SYDNEY (MarketWatch) - Shares in the St. Joe Company (JOE 23.81, -3.72, -13.51%) fell more than 13% in after-hours trading on Wednesday. The firm said it would delay the release of its fourth quarter and fiscal-year results. The company has postponed its earnings report to Mar. 1, from Feb. 24. The Florida-based real estate developer said the extension is required in order to finalize its Form 10-K.
Ouch. They're having trouble with the numbers and Wall Street knows it.
Beach FanaticAuthor
Ouch. They're having trouble with the numbers and Wall Street knows it.
30Ashopper, when did JOE trade at $23 and change yesterday, I saw it opened around 27 or so, and closed around 27 or so yesterday. same thing today
Beach Lover
easy Ghandi. I'm going to take all my money ( and maybe some JOE profits from the last couple months) and pour them into local businesses, locally owned, organically fed, globally thoughtful, locally active. Even if I lose by your standards, I'll win by mine.
But its hard to argue with "dude" JOE "sucks" as a stock, and when you boldface that JOE is 'not' a good investment, that's when I backaway from the dialogue, b/c you've already clearly won, in bold, because you also hate Walmart and shop locally pass the bong
So, as the guy who came on the board and recommended to others to buy this stock and hold for 50 years because there is huge upside in the underlying assets, are you still in for 50 years???
Or, as is likely the case, have you cut and run (partially or fully sold) now that it is quite apparent that the run up was not based on reality and there is no place to go but down over the next 50 years?This has always been and always will be a dog company and stock. Sure, the market goes up and down as it does with virtually all stocks. Day trading can be very profitable on virtually any stock. But, the key to this thread is the LONG TERM value of JOE. And, bottom line, the long term value of the stock is well under $10. Most of the land held by JOE is only worth timber value. The little bit of land that has real developable potential is not big enough to significantly move the overall value.
Berkowitz is talking a big talk, but there is no way to make this company profitable in the short term. The company is bleeding cash and cutting a few top execs is only window dressing in an attempt to drive the stock price up short term. Berk is not in for the long haul. He is simply trying to prop up the company to find the greater fool. JOE will eat through its cash stockpile and be in big trouble within the next couple of years.
Please let me know how this company has fared in the next 50--no lets say 10 years. Focusing on the last few months says nothing about the long term value of the company. Your first comment on this thread was looking long term but you quickly turned into a day trader in your discussions.
Beach Lover
Happy to buy Joe stock from you at "well under $10/share" now or any time in my remaining years. I flew out of the pcb airport yesterday (launched by that short term thinking company). It was completely packed. I drove by the hospital in sandestin several times last week. Parking lot looked pretty crowded with employees (year round jobs with benefits). Joe has given
sowal infrastructure to be more than just a tourism driven economy but continues to be slaughtered on this board. What other private (or public) source has put more of it's assets into improving our area?
sowal infrastructure to be more than just a tourism driven economy but continues to be slaughtered on this board. What other private (or public) source has put more of it's assets into improving our area?
Beach FanaticAuthor
So, as the guy who came on the board and recommended to others to buy this stock and hold for 50 years because there is huge upside in the underlying assets, are you still in for 50 years???
This has always been and always will be a dog company and stock. Sure, the market goes up and down as it does with virtually all stocks. Day trading can be very profitable on virtually any stock. But, the key to this thread is the LONG TERM value of JOE. And, bottom line, the long term value of the stock is well under $10. Most of the land held by JOE is only worth timber value. The little bit of land that has real developable potential is not big enough to significantly move the overall value.
Berkowitz is talking a big talk, but there is no way to make this company profitable in the short term. The company is bleeding cash and cutting a few top execs is only window dressing in an attempt to drive the stock price up short term. Berk is not in for the long haul. He is simply trying to prop up the company to find the greater fool. JOE will eat through its cash stockpile and be in big trouble within the next couple of years.
Please let me know how this company has fared in the next 50--no lets say 10 years. Focusing on the last few months says nothing about the long term value of the company. Your first comment on this thread was looking long term but you quickly turned into a day trader in your discussions.
what are you upset about? Are you upset the stock has gone up 30% already? The stock was a leading indicator on February sales figures you're seeing now. Sorry dude. Sorry the sky isn't falling for South Walton, people love it. I've got 49 years and 7 months to go for this holding, we'll see how it turns out. Good luck to you shorting it.
Beach FanaticAuthor
what are you upset about? Are you upset the stock has gone up 30% already? The stock was a leading indicator on February sales figures you're seeing now. Sorry dude. Sorry the sky isn't falling for South Walton, people love it. I've got 49 years and 7 months to go for this holding, we'll see how it turns out. Good luck to you shorting it.
homeboy, are you Shelly's alterego? We haven't heard much from Shelly since his "wager" with me regarding JOE back about 5 months ago.
Beach Lover
homeboy, are you Shelly's alterego? We haven't heard much from Shelly since his "wager" with me regarding JOE back about 5 months ago.
No. But, he/she seemed to have a pretty good business sense.
How about answering a few of the questions? Are you still in for 50 years or did you dump and run when the stock ran up (ie: knowing it is way, way overvalued)?
The stock really got a nice pop when the $50 million lease hit the news a couple of weeks ago??? Ha.
Good luck with this one over the long term.
Edited
SoWal Insider
It was "bought" higher than the current price--all were "bought" at the market close price on Nov 4, $2000 worth per stock:
INTC: $20.97 (Current share price: $21.69)
SPY: $122.26 (Current share price: $122.89)
JOE: $20.17 (Current share price: $18.63)
.
Nov 4th -> June 1st, Shelly gets to take a bow. Independent of dividends on SPY and Intel:
SPY: 9.2%
INTC: 6.62%
JOE: 5.6%
Plus Intel yields 3.3%, SPY, 1.6%.
Beach FanaticAuthor
BRCM long, short INTC.
You're welcome, this ones a freebie.
You're welcome, this ones a freebie.
Beach Fanatic
robert are you a stk investor for a living?looks like joe is heading to the teens and took all your profit
SoWal Insider
BRCM long, short INTC.
You're welcome, this ones a freebie.
Along those lines, long ALU. (But I'm also long on INTC - respectable dividend and a p/e of 10.)
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