TREND Report - April 2006 - Walton County

Thanks Joe..looks like a return to pre 2003 activity levels. Not a "hot" market any more, I guess but healthy and reasonable.
Of greater concern is the halt in beach restoration and litigenous beach front home owners.

Thanks Joe..looks like a return to pre 2003 activity levels. Not a "hot" market any more, I guess but healthy and reasonable.
Of greater concern is the halt in beach restoration and litigenous beach front home owners.

Interestingly, some of the very homeowners who have the lawsuit in Miramar, also have their property listed for sale. I don't get it.

This thread seems so dull without the choruses of " I TOLD YOU THE SKY IS FALLING", "IT'S THE END OF TH?E WORLD IN SOWAL". "THEY WILL BE GIVING AWAY HOUSES ANY DAY NOW"

Can someone please add something to spice it up???

This thread seems so dull without the choruses of " I TOLD YOU THE SKY IS FALLING", "IT'S THE END OF TH?E WORLD IN SOWAL". "THEY WILL BE GIVING AWAY HOUSES ANY DAY NOW"

Can someone please add something to spice it up???

The thread is still young.

This thread seems so dull without the choruses of " I TOLD YOU THE SKY IS FALLING", "IT'S THE END OF TH?E WORLD IN SOWAL". "THEY WILL BE GIVING AWAY HOUSES ANY DAY NOW"

Can someone please add something to spice it up???

Salt and Pepper do it for ya'??? I DO feel your pain. I am having to direct my attention to getting deleted in General Info now.

This thread seems so dull without the choruses of " I TOLD YOU THE SKY IS FALLING", "IT'S THE END OF TH?E WORLD IN SOWAL". "THEY WILL BE GIVING AWAY HOUSES ANY DAY NOW"

Can someone please add something to spice it up???

In Orlando, one new construction builder has resorted to giving away a Mini Cooper if you buy. Maybe sellers here could offer a free homeowner's policy with purchase.

Thanks SJ. It looks like the numbers include sales by developers using their in-house sales staff (not necessarily licensed agents). Is this the case?

Thanks SJ. It looks like the numbers include sales by developers using their in-house sales staff (not necessarily licensed agents). Is this the case?

I am uncertain from where Trend pulls their numbers.

Can someone please add something to spice it up???

Watch this video all the way through (if you dare) and let's discuss.

Housing Market & Economics

Christopher Thornburg, senior economist at UCLA?s Anderson School of Management, offers his perspective on whether the recent cooling trend in residential real estate indicates an imminent bubble burst or just a lull in California?s otherwise booming housing market in this edition of the Economics Roundtable at the University of California, San Diego. Series: ?Economics Roundtable

welcome back- I think you were missed. But I think you knew that. Drop in over in the lounge later !

Welcome back, SHELLY!

Thank God your back Shelly, I feel the universe coming back into alignment and a little spice coming back into this Forum.

Well, I do concur with Mr Thornburg..prices will be flat for the next few years while the bubble diffuses. No worries. With the 150%+ jump in values a flat price is bearable.
Don't think trends think fundamentals..homes are a blue chip asset and the job rate is good, inventory is high so no new construction and building prices will fall as materials become more readly available.
Bottom line is that the RE binging will cease and things will be flat for a while..unit sales are returning to average levels portending midling appreciation rates.
Just my take.....

Shelley, I watched the video in its entirety. Two points versus the professor's sweeping California/USA conclusions regarding any comparisons w/ SoWal. One, the relationship of rent value to mortgage rates is not a factor on many vacation home transactions. Two, relocation by retirement and migration from higher cost areas is driving value in SoWal for the long run. The opening of the PC airport 09-10 will accelerate both value enhancing factors. The professor was grinding a rather large axe, and I noticed he did not address the widely varying stats throughout California. As you know, I think, real estate is local. It was a thinly veiled hit piece on Realtors and Alan Greenspan.

Good video. Thanks for posting it.

I tend to agree with him that the correction is likely to consist more of a drop in sales with generally flat prices rather than a freefall. Although there may be an initial panic period (I think we are seeing some of that now).

I do believe there are some substantive differences between this and the Californian economies. That does not mean we are immune from the types of market forces he discusses, just that some of the fundamentals vary. We are after all a much smaller, and somewhat more homogenous, market than California overall.

For instance, much (if not all) of South Walton was relatively underdeveloped prior to the boom compared to other coastal areas, mainly due to the lack of any substantial economic base (beyond a limited tourism market). Some of our boom was "catch up". This provides a certain amount of strength, but not one that can be easily quantified. Unfortunately, it does not support a continuing of the trend once the market has "caught up".

Especially in the 30-A area, very little of the south Walton boom is truly residential, but is instead largely second homes--second homes that in many (perhaps most) cases are intended to be used for short-term rentals. This makes the economic fundamentals of the market here somewhat more akin to commercial real estate rather than residential housing, despite what the zoning may be. Overall, the commercial real estate market indicators are not bad.

Unfortunately, though, the fact that the market here is more of a commercial-like one has attracted a higher ratio of speculators to "home buyers" than usual. Speculators are more likely to dump quickly during a downturn than ride it out like a true homeowner would (after all, homeowners have to live somewhere so as long as their own financial picture is good, they care less about ROI on their home than a speculator does about ROI on an 'asset').

We do not have the labor base to help support demand in the lower end of the market that Dr. Thornburg mentioned. Of course, we also do not have a lower end in our market in the first place (see all the threads on "affordable housing"). This means we can expect to see construction costs stay high because of the labor shortage. High costs, increasing inventories, and a drop in demand are not a good combination.

Having said all that, I don't think we're in that bad of a shape. Prices are flattening and pulling back, but I don't anticipate a free-fall, because we do still have a tourism sector to provide rental income. Granted, rental income is not enough to offset all the costs of second home ownership in the first few years, but it offsets some of them...certainly more than if the property sits vacant. (So I would expect to see some of the neighborhoods that currently turn up their noses at rentals become a little more accepting.)

Additionally, in Walton county overall and surrounding areas, job creation continues and is increasing and the permanent population is increasing. Both of which fuel demand for secondary services and thus create further opportunities for entrepreneurs.

I think our overall economy has a bright long-term future. I also think we have some more pain ahead of us in the short-term.

I guess we're somewhere in between everything being rosy and the sky falling down.

Further to your point, attached is an article from Forbes regarding expected growth and Bay County. Also, below is a link regarding job growth in the panhandle. Take note of the area listed as No. 1 for smaller cities.

http://msn.careerbuilder.com/custom...-198149802-X8-2

The link to the article regarding job growth that I included in my previous post did not work. I have attached the article to this post.

Further to your point, attached is an article from Forbes regarding expected growth and Bay County. Also, below is a link regarding job growth in the panhandle. Take note of the area listed as No. 1 for smaller cities.

http://msn.careerbuilder.com/custom...-198149802-X8-2

Thanks for the report George. I removed it because it was such a large file size for 3-1/2 pages. Feel free to post the text, summary, or link. kurt

Also - the link is not working for me.

I KNEW this thread would bring our beloved SHELLY out of hiding. back.

Welcome Back Shelly, we've missed you. I enjoy your posts, they make me think.

The link to the article regarding job growth that I included in my previous post did not work. I have attached the article to this post.

Florida's "job creating machine" may be producing quantity but not quality jobs in line with cost of living.

Dr. Thornburg touched on this situation--although his focus was how the decline of the housing boom will shift employment out of "higher wage" jobs associated with housing (realtors, financial (brokers & such), construction) to low wage service workers (retail, food service).

The same situation is happening in the panhandle. Many of the in-place low-to-middle class have sold out during the boom and the present high cost of housing in relation to area incomes is blocking new folks from entering the market. Businesses and counties will not be able to find workers and the area will suffer as a result.

You hear very little about the problems in the panhandle because the "almighty JOE," developers and their politico lapdogs are quick to keep the problems under wraps. But other counties in Florida are much more vocal (Housing vs Income ).

To say there are more jobs is only half the story--what kind of jobs, how much they pay, and how far that pay goes toward increasing housing, insurance, fuel and other living expenses is something you'll never see in print in the panhandle. We Need Stats Like This

When all else fails and you want someone to blame, play the "Class Warfare" card...

Florida's "job creating machine" may be producing quantity but not quality jobs in line with cost of living.

You've made this claim many times. What is your data source?

I don't necessarily completely disagree with it out of hand, but I think there is more to the situation. What we have is an economy that in many ways is still in an infancy stage. It is transitioning from one which primarily served a transient population of tourists to one which is being asked to also support an increasing permanent population. Most of these "low quality" jobs you mention are in industries that meet tourists' demands--food service, retail, etc.

As the permanent population grows, we are slowly beginning to see more diversification in the economy. It seems more and more business service companies, office supply companies, computer retailers, web designers, contract programmers, and the like moving in. And they, in turn, are fueling demand for other job-creating services.

It also seems, based only on anecdotal evidence admittedly, that many of our new residents are entrepreneurs...not the type who sit around waiting for someone to "offer" them a job. I'm seeing a lot more independent start-ups in just the last 12 - 18 months than I saw in the previous five years combined.

As I'm sure you know, economics provides a way of snapshotting a dynamic situation. But it's easy to focus too much on the snapshot itself, rather than the flux and the forces that created, and are constantly changing, it.

I would appreciate some comments comparing the employment and economic situation in Sowal to that of Naples, Fl. Certainly a community like Naples is more upscale and expensive than living in Sowal, so where does the workforce in Naples come from ? It seems to me that 30-A is in a sense a mini-Naples as far as housing and income is concerned. So how does Naples deal with it?