Sans Gas?

I Take My Perrier Sans Gas

Using national publications and predictions isn't particularly useful in making any determination about a "bubble." I wouldn't even trust Alan Greenspan's advice on the best local sushi or whether or not to invest in a beach house in Grayton Beach, Florida. Major national real estate or investment publications don't know anything about the market in South Walton, its demographics or economy. Comparing our small real estate market in South Walton to past bubbles on the New York Stock Exchange is also a little nutty. That's like Comparing Norma's Cut-N-Style in Crestview to General Motors - do poor quality cars mean poor quality perms and weaves? Norma wouldn't think so. The two aren't related enough to make predications based on historical comparisons. Real estate is local, local, local and local markets are as individual as the people that live in them - except this one where everyone tends to be pretty much white, Republican and obsessed with BMW Suv's. Even if the people here aren't unique, our community is unique in that it is a bedroom community with no dependence on local industry with the obvious exception of tourism. Even in local markets, one neighborhood may continue to shoot through the roof in appreciation while another one may tank - a tiny bubble or bubbles like the ones in Perrier. I think broad generalizations of markets are a mistake. We're not Las Vegas or LA or Houston, we don't have a major industry like tech or oil that our economy is dependent on, and since tourism is global and money changes hands even in bad economies, there's always a "good fortune" that's the direct result of someone else's bad one. If you want to be taller, stand on someone's neck? Besides, even if the market plummets (by today's standard) to a measly 20 to 30 percent appreciation a year (which is average for most resort markets) and beats most investments like a drum at a Blackfoot Peyote ceremony.

I can't imagine that resort properties in Key West, The Hamptons. the Hawaiian Islands, the coastal communities of South Carolina and California, the Cape, Provincetown, etc. were ever available for song in recent real estate history - though time shares in Gary, IN may be effected. Appreciation should ease off. Good. Short term investers with no real interest in the area but making money should move on to other schemes. Good. Buyers now will be more cautious and more educated about what areas and what type of property they invest in instead of buying everything that they can get their hands on. Good. Many realtors will return to the service sector. Very Good (I miss Pizza Hut delivery). It seems to me that everyone with any real sense of the area feels that more big changes are still in store and most will have a postive effect on values if not quality of life, which I'll admit may be debatable depending on your love for Republicans and German SUV's.

Breathe deep. Be smart. And at least feel good that if the market does completely crash, that because of our fifty foot height restriction in South Walton, some of the people jumping from windows won't die and all of our public walkovers are handicap accessible. Thanks TDC!