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"Picking up"

Bobby J avatar
Beach Fanatic
11,662 views
Seems like it is getting busy again... :D We have put together several contracts this week and tons of calls. It looks like this market will be ok. I think there are going to be some areas where folks have purchased too high but if they can be patient and wait it out the market will probably come to them. It is hard to stay down too long when you have such beautiful beaches! People simply want to be here...

Bobby J

Replies

67
Sandcastle avatar
Beach Fanatic
#27
Sorry Sandcastle, that was my client that dropped the price on the pool lot next to yours. You must own P8....

Yep! ;-) I?ll be at the beach in few days and I?ll take the sign down while I?m there. I?d like to own the last pool lot available when the market turns up, but that?s wishful thinking. :floor:

I hope you can sell P9. It?s a beautiful lot.
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#28
Yep! ;-) I?ll be at the beach in few days and I?ll take the sign down while I?m there. I?d like to own the last pool lot available when the market turns up, but that?s wishful thinking. :floor:

I hope you can sell P9. It?s a beautiful lot.

A $139,000 price drop in a week--impressive!

And remember the "P" is silent as in "Swimming Pool"
Sandcastle avatar
Beach Fanatic
#29
A $139,000 price drop in a week--impressive!

And remember the "P" is silent as in "Swimming Pool"

And, some sellers are "under water". :( :
InletBchDweller avatar
SoWal Insider
#30
YOur lot is great as well. No buildings to block....

are you going to be at Seacrest Sunday July 23??? Concert at the pool....7-10 p.m.


Sorry Sandcastle, that was my client that dropped the price on the pool lot next to yours. You must own P8....

Yep! ;-) I?ll be at the beach in few days and I?ll take the sign down while I?m there. I?d like to own the last pool lot available when the market turns up, but that?s wishful thinking. :floor:

I hope you can sell P9. It?s a beautiful lot.
Franny avatar
Beach Fanatic
#31
Close'm Franny...

You got it Red!! :lolabove:
Sandcastle avatar
Beach Fanatic
#32
YOur lot is great as well. No buildings to block....

are you going to be at Seacrest Sunday July 23??? Concert at the pool....7-10 p.m.



I always seem to miss the fun(n) by a day or two :idontno: .
InletBchDweller avatar
SoWal Insider
#33
actually just got back, it was very nice, small crowd, I think they need to schedule a concert the night of the annual hoa meeting...
YOur lot is great as well. No buildings to block....

are you going to be at Seacrest Sunday July 23??? Concert at the pool....7-10 p.m.




I always seem to miss the fun(n) by a day or two :idontno: .
Beach Fanatic
#34
Are any of the agents here seeing differences in activity based on location/property type? I know that is a broad question but what I am interested in is whether or not some types are selling vs others, specifically area's of Sowal where height limitations are in effect vs. the overbuilt condo tower monstrosities in PCB and perhaps Destin.
Unplugged avatar
Beach Fanatic
#35
Are any of the agents here seeing differences in activity based on location/property type? I know that is a broad question but what I am interested in is whether or not some types are selling vs others, specifically area's of Sowal where height limitations are in effect vs. the overbuilt condo tower monstrosities in PCB and perhaps Destin.
We are seeing more activity with pre-construction assignment of contracts where orig contract holders do not want to close.

The activity we're seeing isn't based on the location so much as the 'perceived value' of the listing.
Sandcastle avatar
Beach Fanatic
#36
actually just got back, it was very nice, small crowd, I think they need to schedule a concert the night of the annual hoa meeting...
Sounds good to me, as long as I can bring a pitcher of martinis. :biggrin: The For Sale sign comes down tomorrow. Actually, tomorrow is martini night at Cafe 30-A.;-)
Bobby J avatar
Beach FanaticAuthor
#37
Are any of the agents here seeing differences in activity based on location/property type? I know that is a broad question but what I am interested in is whether or not some types are selling vs others, specifically area's of Sowal where height limitations are in effect vs. the overbuilt condo tower monstrosities in PCB and perhaps Destin.

Yes. I am seeing activity in things that are radically reduced in price. Back to 2004 prices. It seems the buyer is out there. They are circling like vultures. I have noticed that the developments where everyone is trying to sell are hurting the most.
Beach Fanatic
#38
So price right now is the key factor, regardless of area? IMO, the quality of the areas with height limitations is much better, so I guess I was wondering if anyone is seeing that as a factor at this time - are prices holding better in those areas, worse, the same?

I for one would not entertain the idea of purchasing a high rise, but that's just me. To each his own.
Bobby J avatar
Beach FanaticAuthor
#39
I have not really run into the height thing near 30A. It is more the price. The question is what is the real price :idontno: The buyers are more aggressive then last years sellers. If they hit a bump they will pull out in a heartbeat! Kinda like last year but in reverse....
Babyblue avatar
Beach Fanatic
#40
Yes. I am seeing activity in things that are radically reduced in price. Back to 2004 prices. It seems the buyer is out there. They are circling like vultures. I have noticed that the developments where everyone is trying to sell are hurting the most.

Vultures are coming out to eat the dead. I have some folks flying in with 50 large to buy distressed properties. That is a good sign though. Could be getting close to the bottom. But first the meat has to be picked off. :eek:
Unplugged avatar
Beach Fanatic
#41
I have not really run into the height thing near 30A. It is more the price. The question is what is the real price :idontno: The buyers are more aggressive then last years sellers. If they hit a bump they will pull out in a heartbeat! Kinda like last year but in reverse....
I would agree - price is the key factor now, regardless of the area...
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#42
I would agree - price is the key factor now, regardless of the area...

"Location, Location, Location" is out.....

"Price, Price, Price" is the new black.
Beach Lover
#43
All I can say is that I have been vacationing in SoWal for 20 years. I never saw anything so frothy as prices 2002-2004. Just returned from 2 weeks on 30A and now I can say I have never seen so much inventory for sale along 30A :eek: Some of the developments I jogged thru had 75-80% of the lots for resale. Tons of houses that have never been lived in on the mkt, and many 2/3 year old developments with very few starts. All left or right side BS aside, common sense tell you it's going to take several years to clear out all that inventory now that speculators are not selling to other speculators, and prices need to come down given the weak activity. I'm hopefully going to finally buy something in SoWal, and I'm not going to try and hit the absolute nadir of the market, however I believe this is not a one-summer abberation with all the product out there. I think there will be great buys for a while, a slow slide in prices down to where buyers will pick up, not a crash.
Bobby J avatar
Beach FanaticAuthor
#44
All I can say is that I have been vacationing in SoWal for 20 years. I never saw anything so frothy as prices 2002-2004. Just returned from 2 weeks on 30A and now I can say I have never seen so much inventory for sale along 30A :eek: Some of the developments I jogged thru had 75-80% of the lots for resale. Tons of houses that have never been lived in on the mkt, and many 2/3 year old developments with very few starts. All left or right side BS aside, common sense tell you it's going to take several years to clear out all that inventory now that speculators are not selling to other speculators, and prices need to come down given the weak activity. I'm hopefully going to finally buy something in SoWal, and I'm not going to try and hit the absolute nadir of the market, however I believe this is not a one-summer abberation with all the product out there. I think there will be great buys for a while, a slow slide in prices down to where buyers will pick up, not a crash.

Very well put and reality based. It is not going to crash... It is just gonna take awhile. I have heard some say we have up to 5 years of inventory! The price gets right and someone will hop in!
TooFarTampa avatar
SoWal Insider
#45
All I can say is that I have been vacationing in SoWal for 20 years. I never saw anything so frothy as prices 2002-2004. Just returned from 2 weeks on 30A and now I can say I have never seen so much inventory for sale along 30A :eek: Some of the developments I jogged thru had 75-80% of the lots for resale. Tons of houses that have never been lived in on the mkt, and many 2/3 year old developments with very few starts. All left or right side BS aside, common sense tell you it's going to take several years to clear out all that inventory now that speculators are not selling to other speculators, and prices need to come down given the weak activity. I'm hopefully going to finally buy something in SoWal, and I'm not going to try and hit the absolute nadir of the market, however I believe this is not a one-summer abberation with all the product out there. I think there will be great buys for a while, a slow slide in prices down to where buyers will pick up, not a crash.

Very interesting perspective and well taken. However, I do believe (as a Floridian who until 2003 was an outsider to SoWal) that there is valid reasoning for a good portion of the froth in those two years, maybe 65-75 percent of it. I agree with you that rest is all speculation (ie who was the end user in these transactions?) and that portion of the increased values will have to drop down again and inventory must decline dramatically before we see things proceed normally. Which I agree would take awhile. But I would not look for much more price deflation except among the desperate sellers, and there are a number of them as we know. Here is why.

We came up here for the first time in the fall of 2003 and couldn't believe what we saw. I am more or less a lifelong Floridian and was stunned by the beaches and clear water, which I knew about, but more importantly the building restrictions in place in South Walton and the high elevation on most portions of the area. Those are incredibly rare folks. People used to 30-A may not remember this. As a result every time I come up here I am struck by how happy I am to be here and how rare this is for a beachfront community. My husband and I always considered owning in quaint Sanibel/Captiva to be the "ultimate" and we pretty much knew that was a pipe dream, but when we came up here and saw what we could buy a gulf view lot for, we bought one immediately, not knowing whether we would flip it, build on it, retire to it or use it as a way to fund our childrens' education. We were hooked and thrilled, and remain so.

About 9 months later we bought into a gulf view house as part of a partnership, and it is clear now that while that was not a slam-dunk investment, I still believe it was a good value and one probably worth holding onto. Most of those who bought after the summer of 2004 seem to have gotten into the thick of the froth because prices went so far beyond the value of the rental market and approached some of the highest priced areas in the state without the necessary infrastructure.

It is going to be shaky for awhile as all this excess inventory clears out, as formerly "undiscovered" 30-A reaches the point of being fully developed, and as issues such as insurance, infrastructure, affordable housing, etc, interest rates, blah blah blah get resolved. I just don't see values going into the toilet. Because the inherent value of the area is obvious, especially to those of us who know what else is out there, and pretty much don't like it. (Now, it can be argued that the entire coastal U.S. is highly overpriced, and while I don't believe so, if that proves to be true all bets are off because SoWal will get a double-whammy.)

Meantime Jellyfish I wish you luck in your search -- I think you will have quite a few things to choose from for awhile!
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#46
Very well put and reality based. It is not going to crash...

A "crash" is in the eye of the investor. If an investor used a HELOC from their primary home to secure purchase of 2 overpriced lots and a preconstruction condo and is now trying to unload them before the buildout times expire, the contract closes, and the 1-year interest only portion of the loans reset--he may see it as a crash.

A lot of sellers have convinced themselves that this "shakeout" is temporary and all is going to be OK come next Spring when the Real Estate market will return to "normal." Until reality sets in, the stand-off between buyer and seller will drag on, and on, and on. It won't break until the sellers start feeling the real financial pinch of carrying these properties. Sellers will experience a slow bleed of money while buyers can plunk the money into a CD and get 5%+ -- and rent a place if they want to hit the beach for a couple of weeks.
Unplugged avatar
Beach Fanatic
#47
Good observations however,

the local agents are very quiet on this thread... :scratch:
TooFarTampa avatar
SoWal Insider
#48
A "crash" is in the eye of the investor. If an investor used a HELOC from their primary home to secure purchase of 2 overpriced lots and a preconstruction condo and is now trying to unload them before the buildout times expire, the contract closes, and the 1-year interest only portion of the loans reset--he may see it as a crash.

A lot of sellers have convinced themselves that this "shakeout" is temporary and all is going to be OK come next Spring when the Real Estate market will return to "normal." Until reality sets in, the stand-off between buyer and seller will drag on, and on, and on. It won't break until the sellers start feeling the real financial pinch of carrying these properties. Sellers will experience a slow bleed of money while buyers can plunk the money into a CD and get 5%+ -- and rent a place if they want to hit the beach for a couple of weeks.

Personally I think the shakeout is going to take several years. The goal for everyone should be to get the hands of these properties into end users, so the market can stabilize.
Franny avatar
Beach Fanatic
#49
Good observations however,

the local agents are very quiet on this thread... :scratch:

Heelllloooooo..we are working here!! :shock:
Unplugged avatar
Beach Fanatic
#50
Heelllloooooo..we are working here!! :shock:
Oh yes, we're all very happy for you Franny :clap_1: :roll:


Believe it or not, there are several agents with time to lurk on SoWal, so maybe they can offer some words of wisdom on the subject? :idontno:
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#51
Personally I think the shakeout is going to take several years. The goal for everyone should be to get the hands of these properties into end users, so the market can stabilize.

Govm't sez we reached record homeownership of 69.2% in 2004 (down to 69% in 2005)--and that was accomplished when interest rates were lower and houses were "cheap" compared to later boom prices.

Now interest rates are higher; inventory levels are at a 9-year high; housing prices are WAY above affordability levels for the majority of lower- to middle- class wage earners; wages have not kept up with inflation in the the past several years; insurance, gas, medical and taxes are on the rise; and with savings rates below zero, few have put enough money away for retirement...who is going to buy up these thousands of Florida condos as "end users?"

It's going to be a shame when a lot of precious energy is going to be wasted in lighting, cooling and pool filtering rows of mostly-empty condo lining the coasts of Florida.

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