CNBC housing segment today @ 3:00pm

I missed it - did anybody catch? If so please share.

They also did a feature story this morning on the Today show regarding the 'bursting of the real estate bubble'. Usatoday.com runs an article every week or so highlighting a different area of the country where prices have come down.

If all the national news outlets are now making this one of their top stories, does that mean it's almost over??? Just a question, as usually these folks are the last to the party.

On the bright side, the 10 year treasury bond is at its lowest level in 4 months.

I am not sure if I saw it or not - I got home for the last 15 minutes of the show and they were on other topics - but with like 3 minutes to go in the show they bring up second homes and how the market is dead there right now - but if you have a multi million dollar place - they are still selling. Mentioned a few celebrities that recently bought in the Hamptons and I think Naples area. That was all I saw. - Not much.

I am not sure if I saw it or not - I got home for the last 15 minutes of the show and they were on other topics - but with like 3 minutes to go in the show they bring up second homes and how the market is dead there right now - but if you have a multi million dollar place - they are still selling. Mentioned a few celebrities that recently bought in the Hamptons and I think Naples area. That was all I saw. - Not much.

Yep, that was it. No new news. To SpinDrAtl's point, it almost seemed like out-of-date information with newsbreaks like 'inventories are up 50% over last year'.

I was thinking the same thing, in fact, have been kind of thinking that recently when reports come out that real estate is slowing down. Certainly the real estate slowdown that so many here are familiar with had to make headlines sometime. I think that its having done so is just another step that had to be taken. I, for one, am glad to hear that it's on the news. I wish the story would really take off and dominate the news for a while. Then, maybe, we could get somewhere.

If all the national news outlets are now making this one of their top stories, does that mean it's almost over??? Just a question, as usually these folks are the last to the party.

Almost over? No, it's just at the very beginning. Front page stories about the sales down and inventories up will be followed by stories of double-digit price declines, more broken contracts, foreclosures, some perp walks for appraisers, developers and others in the industry, etc., etc. And when the dust settles, don't expect a return to the hot RE markets experienced in the last couple of years--that won't happen again for a couple of generations. <IMO ;-) > (Think Tech Bubble--but in slow motion and more far-reaching)

Almost over? No, it's just at the very beginning. Front page stories about the sales down and inventories up will be followed by stories of double-digit price declines, more broken contracts, foreclosures, some perp walks for appraisers, developers and others in the industry, etc., etc. And when the dust settles, don't expect a return to the hot RE markets experienced in the last couple of years--that won't happen again for a couple of generations. <IMO ;-) > (Think Tech Bubble--but in slow motion and more far-reaching)

So do you think that I might be able to swoop in and get a good deal in say 2007-2008? That is my plan anyway.

Almost over? No, it's just at the very beginning. Front page stories about the sales down and inventories up will be followed by stories of double-digit price declines, more broken contracts, foreclosures, some perp walks for appraisers, developers and others in the industry, etc., etc. And when the dust settles, don't expect a return to the hot RE markets experienced in the last couple of years--that won't happen again for a couple of generations. <IMO ;-) > (Think Tech Bubble--but in slow motion and more far-reaching)

I don't necessarily think it's almost over - I just threw that out as a point for discussion because in the past, these issues become headline and lead story news well into their life cycles. I think you are a little behind as well. There are already front page stories about sales down and inventories up. There are already stories of double digit declines (see my point about usatoday above). There are already stories of broken contracts and foreclosures (not to mention projects that are not going to get off the ground now). No perp walks yet, however.

I humbly disagree with your assessment of hot RE markets every couple generations. Perhaps the 100% increases in a year type market but in general terms, RE booms and busts tend to run in the 15-20 year range, not a couple generations.

So do you think that I might be able to swoop in and get a good deal in say 2007-2008? That is my plan anyway.

Almost over? No, it's just at the very beginning. Don't expect a return to the hot RE markets experienced in the last couple of years--that won't happen again for a couple of generations.

Compliments of Shelly's crystal ball...
That means you could have your grand kids also cash in on the cold RE market.:clap_1:

I think you are a little behind as well. There are already front page stories about sales down and inventories up. There are already stories of double digit declines (see my point about usatoday above). There are already stories of broken contracts and foreclosures (not to mention projects that are not going to get off the ground now). No perp walks yet, however.

The papers have been woefully slow at reporting and are lagging indicators of what's really happening out on the street. While it is true we are now just starting to see front page stories in the publications like the WSJ and NYT, they are usually only about the sagging sales and the soaring inventories--and most always contain a "feel good" quote from a hired gun at the NAR stating "Now is the best time to buy....it's a buyer's market!" (Which has been said every month on cue for the past year). Other stories about the bust have been tucked away in the Personal Finance, Marketplace or Real Estate sections.

This thing has just only begun to unwind. Stories are starting to come to light about shoddy construction of houses and condos thrown up during the boom. Projects being cancelled, developers filing for bankruptcy, layoffs, fraud and collusion--still not front page news.

H&R Block just announced it will take a charge of $61.3 million to reflect an increase in the number of its subprime mortgage customers falling behind on their loan payments. If this doesn't make a headline in the WSJ's Saturday edition, we're still not at the starting point just yet.

Compliments of Shelly's crystal ball...
That means you could have your grand kids also cash in on the cold RE market.:clap_1:

The grandkids will need the money to buy $29.95 Value Meals at McDonalds, pay $1500 per month cellphone bills and pay for their medicine and retirement (since Medicare is history and they haven't saved a dime in their 401K).

So do you think that I might be able to swoop in and get a good deal in say 2007-2008? That is my plan anyway.

What's your definition of a "good deal?"

On the bright side, the 10 year treasury bond is at its lowest level in 4 months.

And why is this good news?

And when the dust settles, don't expect a return to the hot RE markets experienced in the last couple of years--that won't happen again for a couple of generations. <IMO ;-) > (Think Tech Bubble--but in slow motion and more far-reaching)

A couple of generations?! Really?! I guess my grandfather shouldn't have bought all that land on the coast of FL during the depression! And here I always thought he was a visionary!

A couple of generations?! Really?! I guess my grandfather shouldn't have bought all that land on the coast of FL during the depression! And here I always thought he was a visionary!

And if we go into another Depression and you scoop up all the Florida land you can buy for your grandchildren, they'll think you're a visionary too--unless of course they say, "Why the hell did grandpappy sink all his money into a place lined with concrete seawalls and oil globs all over the beach?"

Shelly, my definition of a good deal is a house I like at a note I can tote-isn't that a novel concept?!:clap_1:

And if we go into another Depression and you scoop up all the Florida land you can buy for your grandchildren, they'll think you're a visionary too--unless of course they say, "Why the hell did grandpappy sink all his money into a place lined with concrete seawalls and oil globs all over the beach?"

Shelly,

Over the past year I have generally agree with your analysis of the real estate market and admit that you were correct in predicting the problems that have occurred. I just think it's unfortunate that you never seem to write a positive thought on this forum, and even worse, you can't seem to tolerate anyone else that does.

Barring absolute economic and/or environmental disaster on a scale never before seen by man, land purchased on the coast of FL now will be incredibly precious in 40 years (2 generations). I realize that there are those who truly believe that economic and/or environmental disasters are inevitable. For example, the communists thought democracy and capitalism would ultimately collaspe in disaster. Funny how that worked out, huh? I just happen to believe that humanity will find solutions to our problems and ultimately implement them in ways that work. I'm scared sometimes but I do believe in our desire to survive in a world that is better for ourselves and our children.

We always need bell ringers to sound the alarm, but frankly, your 2 generations statement came off sounding like the homeless man on the street yelling "Repent! the end is near!". Even if you're right, you sound crazy and are therefore ineffective in making your point. It's simply tiring to keep reading your predictably negative opinions. We all know you believe the opposite of ANYTHING positive posted on this forum. What I would like to read is your insight into how you think we can fix the problems we face now and in the future. Convince me you are more than just gloom and doom.

Dear Shelley -
Ok, This is my first post ever - not even sure if I am doing it correctly, but I totally agree with Paradise Sea on this one. I have been reading these posts for months now and taking in all of the opinions. Shelley, though you may be correct now and again, your pessimism diminishes most of the value of your comments. I am not trying to belittle you, rather, I am just agreeing that if you have a point, and you seem to have many, they can be made without the sarcastic edge - just as readily. That would allow those of us who enjoy your insights to be able to appreciate them without the discounting applied because of the ongoing doom. Just some feedback...remember all feedback is good... Now I am going back in my shell to hide and watch! By the way, all of this Real estate stuff may be moot anyway if the bird flu or scalar weaponry warfare ever begins - not to mention the weather control underway at the HAARP center in Alaska (now that is real doom and gloom for you guys). Have an excellent weekend :roll:

Dear Shelly -
I am sorry for misspelling your name...

By the way, does anyone know how I easily can change my by line from Beach Crab to something nicer - like maybe Sunset Seeker?

By the way, does anyone know how I easily can change my by line from Beach Crab to something nicer - like maybe Sunset Seeker?

Post a lot. I believe the tag is tied to number of posts.

Convince me you are more than just gloom and doom.

What can we do to fix everything? Stop the greed, then everything will fall into place. Easy...no?

Because I've lived in the panhandle for decades my viewpoint of "local beauty" is far different from that of newcomers. If someone had told me in the 70's Hwy 98 would be choked with traffic; condos, houses and seawalls would line the beaches; access to the beaches would be cut off by private developments; and the regular Joe couldn't find an affordable place to live; I would have told them they were out of their mind too! (And that was less than 40 years ago!)

And because I follow the economy of the US, I know we are not in a very good place--and eventually the economy is going to have to flush itself, and it's not going to be pretty for the unprepared. For those who want ignore the warnings, who cares? Keep spending borrowed money like there is no tomorrow. But like they say in the biz, "During recessions money is returned to its rightful owner."

There are plenty of Pollyannas on the forum...I don't mind playing the 's advocate.

Just like I may seem like the person who stands on the corner and shouts "Repent, the end is near"...I view those who keep trying to reform my way of thinking like a Jehovah Witness who incessantly pound on the door trying to get me to change my ways. ....it's not gonna happen.

Shelly, my definition of a good deal is a house I like at a note I can tote-isn't that a novel concept?!:clap_1:

You're right, that's certainly out of the ordinary in this day and age.

Lots of people will soon start to realize that real estate isn't an "everyman's" investment. If you've already got your primary residence and retirement portfolio secured, and have some extra money laying around collecting dust, it's much better to invest your money in buying "experiences" instead of "things."

Lots of people will soon start to realize that real estate isn't an "everyman's" investment. If you've already got your primary residence and retirement portfolio secured, and have some extra money laying around collecting dust, it's much better to invest your money in buying "experiences" instead of "things."

I HATE YOU SHELLY>>HATE YOU!!...Just when I think I'm sure your nuts, you make a loaded statement like that..invest in experiences rather than things...man thats worth smoking a doob to contemplate.
But thats were my heads at, Shel. We/I have decided that we will not persue money anymore!! thats a friggin relief..liberating. However we have also reached zero debt this year and have home and retirement cash flow in place.
So next year we will travel around the world for a year..to experience life.
One world alliance allows you to book a 6 continent/20 flight around the world trip at a good price, and take a year to do it!
Yer a sage, Shel..a veritable sage!!
Anyway wish me bon voyage.

Anyway wish me bon voyage.

Bon Voyage