Hey guys, back from my extended vacation on the gulf coast. It was great except for being chased away for three days by a guy named Dennis.
What I noted during my time in on 30-A is a continued softening of the market. While a several high dollar homes have sold over the last couple of months in Rosemary, Seaside, Seacrest, Watercolor, Grayton, etc, the number of new listings hitting the market far exceeds the number being sold. The inventory is building rapidly and those that need to get out of the market are lowering asking prices dramatically. I saw some homeowners drop prices twice just over the past four weeks. Some price decreases over the last few months are in excess of 20%. In Watercolor, there were approximately 125 properties on the market in mid-May. Today the number approaches 180 (that's between 20 and 25% of the total units!!!!). I think Rosemary has close to 100 properties on the market, Seaside 40ish, etc, etc. I believe the inventory growth situation is similar up and down 30-A. That's a bit scary to me. Are all of these folks selling because they need to (are they flippers that never intended to own long term or multiple property owners that now need to dump some investments), are they simply trying to cash out, or are they just testing the market?
I also tried counting the number of properties on the MLS from Sandestin to the east end of 30-A. There are over 700 properties for sale in excess of $1.5 million and another 1000 plus in the $750k to $1.5 million range. At recent rates of sale (based on Walton County tax appraiser site), that makes for about 4, 5 or more years of inventory (as opposed to less than a years inventory last year) of these high value properties and the number is growing weekly. My figures might be off because I am not privy to all the facts that a real estate agent is so someone should check my numbers.
I do believe the market is very desirable and sales will pick up once the prices fall enough and the market stabilizes. I heard a few potential buyers say that they were waiting on the sidelines until things "bottom out" in terms of prices.
Don't want to start another war, just looking to see how others see the current market.
Replies
55
Meow
Agree with you skier. Announcement comes today that the yuan is no longer artificially tied to the dollar. The import of cheap Chinese goods has helped prop up our economy. A rise in the yuan value (which I guess is expected) will change that. I'm thinking that whatever the "reality" of our economy is will begin to dawn on us in the next couple of years, and there may be a large correction in many things. I expect taxes will go up, which means people with lots of cash flow may not have as much to invest in real estate. There are other positive factors that may come into play, especially for the SoWal area, but it is wise to be cautious.
Now is not the time to overextend (ie spend $800K on a house in Freeport with grass on the roof) but from the quality of the discussions here, it doesn't sound like the people on this board have much to worry about!
I like the last part of your response! The only worry I have is when can I get down there again! Looks like it will be October (sound of violins swells in the background here) for us...we were coming down August 7, but just found out our name came up for a new sheltie puppy this weekend!!!! If all goes well, she will join us in the fall. Now where is that Dog Permit link??? Happy Happy Joy Joy
Beach Lover
Sueshore,
We have a sheltie and she absolutely loves the beach. She sits on our front porch, and just takes it all in. When it is time to come back home we have to physically pick her up and put her in the car, she is not ready. Now all we have to say is are you ready to go to the beach and she is at our back door, waiting to get in the car. They are wonderful dogs and she is truely our beach dog.
We have a sheltie and she absolutely loves the beach. She sits on our front porch, and just takes it all in. When it is time to come back home we have to physically pick her up and put her in the car, she is not ready. Now all we have to say is are you ready to go to the beach and she is at our back door, waiting to get in the car. They are wonderful dogs and she is truely our beach dog.
Beach Lover
... Announcement comes today that the yuan is no longer artificially tied to the dollar. The import of cheap Chinese goods has helped prop up our economy. A rise in the yuan value (which I guess is expected) will change that. ...
Not an expert here, but I would imagine that the Fed and the US govt. are ecstatic about this move. The concern has always been that having the yuan pegged to the dollar created an inflation risk in the PRC, caused the PRC to hoard dollars, and created an artificial advantage for the PRC in trade (leading to the severe trade deficit between the PRC and the US).
Relation to Walton County justifying this reponse: and that's how the Chinese government helped skier sell his overpriced house!
SoWal Insider
Not an expert here, but I would imagine that the Fed and the US govt. are ecstatic about this move. The concern has always been that having the yuan pegged to the dollar created an inflation risk in the PRC, caused the PRC to hoard dollars, and created an artificial advantage for the PRC in trade (leading to the severe trade deficit between the PRC and the US).
Relation to Walton County justifying this reponse: and that's how the Chinese government helped skier sell his overpriced house!
LOL ok now my head hurts. I'm no expert either Travel2Much. My gut reaction is that since everything is made in China these days, if the price of their goods go up everything gets more expensive at Wal-Mart. But you may be right, maybe Greenspan is happy.
Maybe we should stick to talking about dogs romping on the beach and $7 million gulf front beach houses in Rosemary, which is a lot more fun!! Wish I was a dog romping in Rosemary right now.
Beach Lover
I am no financial analyst but my great grandmother always said "anything is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay for it; no more, no less"
At the end of the day, this place is fabulous and the more people find it the higher the demand will be. Paradise is never a bad investment at any price!
At the end of the day, this place is fabulous and the more people find it the higher the demand will be. Paradise is never a bad investment at any price!
Beach Fanatic
Sueshore, I actually think October is the best time of year here anyways. Still warm enough for going to the beach, but not so warm you sweat through clothing if you have to be outside for 5 minutes at 8:30 am. Very pleasant if you want to golf, walk, play tennis, or bike. Peak of hurricane season has passed. And way less crowded than it would be in August.
Admin
October is the best. May is great but in October the Water is warm.
Just saw this on some houses I shot.
http://www.emeraldcoasttours.com/52mysticcobalt - 2,670 sf watercolor gulf view reduced from 3.3m to 2.475m
http://www.emeraldcoasttours.com/143buttercupstreet - 2,760 sf watercolor - no gulf view - $2.65 m
Just saw this on some houses I shot.
http://www.emeraldcoasttours.com/52mysticcobalt - 2,670 sf watercolor gulf view reduced from 3.3m to 2.475m
http://www.emeraldcoasttours.com/143buttercupstreet - 2,760 sf watercolor - no gulf view - $2.65 m
Beach Lover
We were down last week also (we did love the week after Dennis, we never got into so many great restaurants so easily) I did talk with the builder of a home 70% done on the park in Watercolor, he said the owner just turned down $5.5million for the home "as is". He said he'd sell for more when completed or live in it. Not a bad choice to make. Also I do not think it was a flipper offering the $5.5MM. As someone said above great location will hold value. I talked with a Citibank officer today along with a client and he said many of his clients were listing properties to "capture" gain, but he also said he saw the same thing 5 years ago at MUCH lower prices.
Good luck to everyone, both the buyers and sellers, I'm keeping mine.
Good luck to everyone, both the buyers and sellers, I'm keeping mine.
Beach Lover
LOL ...
Maybe we should stick to talking about dogs romping on the beach and $7 million gulf front beach houses in Rosemary, which is a lot more fun!! Wish I was a dog romping in Rosemary right now.
Ain't that the truth. I am going to ride over to RB and enjoy myself, the sunny evening, and my investment. I'll romp a bit in the grass for you.
Beach Fanatic
Ain't that the truth. I am going to ride over to RB and enjoy myself, the sunny evening, and my investment. I'll romp a bit in the grass for you.
:clap_1: :clap_1: :clap_1: :clap_1: Well said -- Enjoy your evening!! :clap_1: :clap_1: :clap_1:
SoWal Insider
Ain't that the truth. I am going to ride over to RB and enjoy myself, the sunny evening, and my investment. I'll romp a bit in the grass for you.
Stop by the Sugar Shack too, will ya? ;-) Enjoy!!
Admin
Stop by the Sugar Shack too, will ya? ;-) Enjoy!!
Uh oh! Have you just revealed your location? :shock:
Meow
LOL ok now my head hurts. I'm no expert either Travel2Much. My gut reaction is that since everything is made in China these days, if the price of their goods go up everything gets more expensive at Wal-Mart. But you may be right, maybe Greenspan is happy.
Maybe we should stick to talking about dogs romping on the beach and $7 million gulf front beach houses in Rosemary, which is a lot more fun!! Wish I was a dog romping in Rosemary right now.
Okay...now my stomach hurts, from too much laughing!!! Maybe the economics lessons can go to the lounge! I plead guilty for going off topic with my puppy news, but TooFarTampa is correct...dogs romping on the beach is SoWal at it's best!!!!
Meow
Sueshore,
We have a sheltie and she absolutely loves the beach. She sits on our front porch, and just takes it all in. When it is time to come back home we have to physically pick her up and put her in the car, she is not ready. Now all we have to say is are you ready to go to the beach and she is at our back door, waiting to get in the car. They are wonderful dogs and she is truely our beach dog.
This will drive the economists crazy but, thanks for the great story about your sheltie! It made me smile. Our first sheltie, Missy, only got to be at the beach twice before she died in Feb. of 2004. Her first time on the beach was at Thanksgiving '02 and she LOVED it. It has taken us 18 months to be ready for another fur ball and we can hardly wait. The sweetest thing is my 20 year old son is so happy she is coming before he goes back to school. There's just something about a man that loves dogs! And I must agree...October is a great time for SoWal...I stayed for three weeks last year! It was my first year for the empty nest and NO, I didn't suffer!
SoWal Insider
Uh oh! Have you just revealed your location? :shock:
Uh, yes Kurt. I'm in Tampa.
Just thought ice cream sounded good. That's where I would go if I got to Travel2Much like T2M.
Admin
Uh, yes Kurt. I'm in Tampa.
Just thought ice cream sounded good. That's where I would go if I got to Travel2Much like T2M.
I thought you meant to stop by the rental house "Sugar Shack" where you were hangin' out. SoWal Insider
:nono1: You need to leave Grayton once in awhile and head east!
Beach Lover
...
Just thought ice cream sounded good. That's where I would go if I got to Travel2Much like T2M.
No Sugar Shack tonite, sorry. To report in, the beach at RB was quite fine tonite, sorry dunes aside. Some human urchins were ruining the dunes with Dad's permission until someone pointed out how gauche that was. That restaurant (Onano?) was filling up and given that it is a cool summer evening looked idyllic. It's a fine thing to walk your bike through such a neat downtown. The lawns were beautiful and when I passed upon them I said "romp, romp, romp". But, I think some show is on for twilight, as blankets were beginning to be laid about. Magical. Seven mil for gulf front? No problemo...
Admin
:nono1: You need to leave Grayton once in awhile and head east!
I was at RB this AM. I am all over SoWal like yellow flies on a big black sticky ball hanging from a sand pine.
http://www.sowal.com/photos.htmlI did catch the moon rise at Grayton again this evening though. :clap_1:
Beach Lover
What is the rate of homes selling in the area for the last 5 years? Wasn't last year more of the anomaly than this year?
Edited
SoWal Expert
Just trying to report what I saw and nothing else and get others perspectives. ... That's all I am trying to discuss in a fair and honest way....Skier,
This is a good topic and I am interested in reading opinions. However, everyone here knows that many listings are like your very own, which is an overpriced property that you will sell only if someone is willing to pay you more than it is worth. You do not care if you sell, yet you add to the number of listings just sitting on the market, and help soften it. It is a free world and you are welcome to do whatever you please within the laws of the land, but don't continue with your horse caca.
With that said, sure there are overpriced properties dropping in price, and sales have slowed. Frankly, I am glad to see some prices are rounding back to what should be the listing price. I bet you are a lawyer trying to piss off people all day, and I don't think you really give a crap about the market. You are just trying to stir the pot.
Beach Lover
Philip,
I get the list of properties directly from Arvida sales (it only includes listings by Arvida and not other realtors) and it includes about 120 properties--land, condos and homes. The rest I got by going to Destin Properties website and counting those listed by other agents. Its at least 180. Not sure why the MLS you were looking at had so few of the total listings. In terms of total units, there will eventually be about 1k, but Arvida still has a lot of unsold lots in phase IV and many lots it still owns in Phase III. So, in terms of non-Arvida owned units, the inventory is in the range of 20-25%.
Are all the Arvida units on the market or are some of them in controlled releases?
How is Watersound selling? The last press release I saw showed a surplus of buyers for Watersound Beach/Watersound Beach West.
SoWal Expert
What's interesting is that this is quite irrational behavior. Buyers see the ridiculous price and are offended and back off, even if they were willing to pay market value. Other buyers see the "for sale" signs carpeting the landscape and back off. Still other buyers see that darn near every place in a development is up for sale and think, "well if this development sucks so bad that everyone is trying to unload their property I will back off". Still others see others backing off and back off.:clap_1: :clap_1: :clap_1:
The result is a severe constriction of demand due to attempted market manipulation, and escalating supply.
Interesting collective action problem.
Thanks, I've been so busy shouting at Skier that I may have forgot to say what you said so well.
SoWal Expert
Sueshore, I actually think October is the best time of year here anyways. Still warm enough for going to the beach, but not so warm you sweat through clothing if you have to be outside for 5 minutes at 8:30 am. Very pleasant if you want to golf, walk, play tennis, or bike. Peak of hurricane season has passed. And way less crowded than it would be in August.
If you and Kurt don't stop telling people these lies about October being a good month to visit the beach, I may have to break out a jar of whoop-a_s. October is the worst month ever and everyone should plan around the month of October for beach travels. The yellow flies are the worst from Oct 1 - Halloween. Sharks eat a lot in October. Rip Currents are definitely worst in October. All the restaurants close for a vacation in October. Peak of Hurricane season is October. Should I continue?
Yes, if you want to have the worst beach vacation, come in October.Beach LoverAuthor
Skier,
This is a good topic and I am interested in reading opinions. However, everyone here knows that many listings are like your very own, which is an overpriced property that you will sell only if someone is willing to pay you more than it is worth. You do not care if you sell, yet you add to the number of listings just sitting on the market, and help soften it. It is a free world and you are welcome to do whatever you please within the laws of the land, but don't continue with your horse caca.
With that said, sure there are overpriced properties dropping in price, and sales have slowed. Frankly, I am glad to see some prices are rounding back to what should be the listing price. I bet you are a lawyer trying to piss off people all day, and I don't think you really give a crap about the market. You are just trying to stir the pot.
Not a lawyer, not trying to piss people off and I do care about the market. Keep smiling Joe, it doesn't sound like you're smiling.
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