Bubble bursting???

Way cool--I'll take a 29% discount from the $1700 per square foot. Any takers?

Boy--these real estate threads sure are a popular place to hang out these days. Who da thunk so many messages would be traded on one or two threads. This is fun stuff. Never really done much posting on the web. But, I'm having fun here. I like the banter. :clap_1:

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After hearing the results of the recent Aly's Beach sealed bid offering, I am not so sure the bubble is bursting. Here are the results of the Aly's Beach Offering from a reliable source...

Fact #1 - It was a sellout
All Lots were sold during the sealed bid process

Fat #2 - Premium
The Lots were sold at an average 4% premium over minimum bid price.

Since the minimum bids on these lots were priced at a highest level to begin with......it appears to me that this result is indeed evidence that the upward trend is continuing.

I hope this is helpful.

Doug

Boy--these real estate threads sure are a popular place to hang out these days. Who da thunk so many messages would be traded on one or two threads. This is fun stuff. Never really done much posting on the web. But, I'm having fun here. I like the banter. :clap_1:

Skier, Try "The World is Flat" byThomas l. Friedman. I think you might see how international buyers may just be the next wave. P.C. airport may be just the kickstart. In today's headlines, Chinese firm bids for UNOCAL oil. There's so much capital out there. Most foreign buyers bring cash!

I'm not sure what you guys have been arguing about over the last few days but I have a few things to say, As for as Skier the last thing the real estate market needs is negativity. You and other skepics scare the hell out of people wishing to invest. Point one the problem with our market today is we have investors (once buiders) flippin land. I, for one have strongly encouraged to BUILD on the lots they have purchased rather than resale. There has been a lot of "talk' in the last few days about Realtors decreasing the prices of real estate for the sake of a "good buy". We don't decrease the price with out the owners permission..so give me a break...By the way I have a lot of happy buyers and sellers!!!!!

Realtors raise prices so they can then drop them at advertise the property as "Price Reduced!" I'm seeing lots more of that lately.

Let me just note that Realtors don't determine the prices..the seller does this remarkable work

Bob wrote: >I think you might see how international buyers may just be the next wave. In today's headlines, Chinese firm bids for UNOCAL oil. There's so much capital out there. Most foreign buyers bring cash!<

The European economy is in the ditch, the Austrialian economy is in the ditch, the American economy is heading for the ditch---that essentially leaves the Chinese to buy up the Panhandle properties. Just means we're going to have to get a helluvalot more American All-You-Can-Eat Buffets in the area--problem is, with the housing prices promising double digit increases every quarter, where are the $6.15 per hour workers going to live?

Just another "conundrum" to figure out.

Hmmmmm....where's Joe I always love hgis input... :clap_1:

For some, the developer may get the lot back at cost to sell to someone else.

Hi Joe,
yes in our experience in Watercolor if you dd not build wthin a specifid time we were fined Actualy that happened months ago. However we have seen where other lot owners or Arvida lot owners are not fined . Anyway da da da we are happy building..hope to see you soon

I'm not sure what you guys have been arguing about over the last few days but I have a few things to say, As for as Skier the last thing the real estate market needs is negativity. You and other skepics scare the hell out of people wishing to invest. Point one the problem with our market today is we have investors (once buiders) flippin land. I, for one have strongly encouraged to BUILD on the lots they have purchased rather than resale. There has been a lot of "talk' in the last few days about Realtors decreasing the prices of real estate for the sake of a "good buy". We don't decrease the price with out the owners permission..so give me a break...By the way I have a lot of happy buyers and sellers!!!!!

What do have to say about the realtors speculation? I hear that up to one third of the recent real estate purchases were made by realtors. Obviously, this was for speculative purposes. Many were investors that became realtors to save on transaction costs. Unfortunately, I think the realtors are part of the problem with the flattening or decreasing of the prices recently in a more fundamental way.

Here is a snapshot of statistical data from yesterday. Out of the 69 listings in this area that changed price yesterday, 64 of the listings dropped in price, while only 5 increased. These price changes are only a snapshot of one day, but the trend began over the last two weeks. As I stated before, I don't think this indicates anything more than people put such high prices on their property that it could not sell. How many times can you sell the same property for 100% returns? - A few, but it sure slows down after you get out of most people's price range. Someone else mentioned new things coming on line such as the PCB airport. This will definitely open the area up to new investors from outside the South East. Compared to other warm-climate, beautiful coastal areas around the world, SoWal is still a good buy.

Just my thoughts.

Good point about realtors holding stuff. They've been snapping up preconstruction like popcorn the last few years. I'm sure many have fat bank accounts but I'll bet many are overextended.

If general sales go flat then the realtors are not getting cash flow. My guess is that we'll see a lot of this stuff come on the market in a short period of time, which in itself is not that big a deal, but it might start other folks to worrying.

A house on the north side of Seaside priced at over $1,700/sf went under contract today. It did sit on the market for 65 days though.

I believe that the listing square footage was for the main house only - 1600 sq ft. If you look at the description there's a 650 sq ft guest house also. That brings the price per ft to a meager $1,222 (if the contract was for the list price of $2,750,000)

Skier, Try "The World is Flat" byThomas l. Friedman. I think you might see how international buyers may just be the next wave. P.C. airport may be just the kickstart. In today's headlines, Chinese firm bids for UNOCAL oil. There's so much capital out there. Most foreign buyers bring cash!

The rumors I've heard are that they're already here, and snapping up a ton of businesses in Destin. Depending on who you talk to, it's the Russians and the Israelis, or maybe Jewish Russians. There's even a small Russian internet cafe and grocery in Destin in the Sunsations Plaza. (I keep meaning to go in there and see if they've got any good chocolate)

There's a sandwich shop by me that got bouught by a couple from the UK last year. It's my understanding that there's a big pool of Europeans who would love to own & run a small business in the Florida sun. Great climate, and fewer regulations & rules they have to deal with than in the EU. Normally they go for the bigger cities like Orlando/Tampa/Miami, but I think word is starting to get around about this area.

Bob wrote: >I think you might see how international buyers may just be the next wave. In today's headlines, Chinese firm bids for UNOCAL oil. There's so much capital out there. Most foreign buyers bring cash!<

The European economy is in the ditch, the Austrialian economy is in the ditch, the American economy is heading for the ditch---that essentially leaves the Chinese to buy up the Panhandle properties. Just means we're going to have to get a helluvalot more American All-You-Can-Eat Buffets in the area--problem is, with the housing prices promising double digit increases every quarter, where are the $6.15 per hour workers going to live?

Just another "conundrum" to figure out.

Huge problem. Most resort areas go begging for help.

The Taco Bell/KFC by the outlet mall was advertising that they were willing to pay $10/hour.

Cracker Barrel has a $400 sign on bonus. :shock:

The rumors I've heard are that they're already here, and snapping up a ton of businesses in Destin. Depending on who you talk to, it's the Russians and the Israelis, or maybe Jewish Russians. There's even a small Russian internet cafe and grocery in Destin in the Sunsations Plaza. (I keep meaning to go in there and see if they've got any good chocolate)

There's a sandwich shop by me that got bouught by a couple from the UK last year. It's my understanding that there's a big pool of Europeans who would love to own & run a small business in the Florida sun. Great climate, and fewer regulations & rules they have to deal with than in the EU. Normally they go for the bigger cities like Orlando/Tampa/Miami, but I think word is starting to get around about this area.

In the last few months, I have personally met with Russians and Germans seeking large tracks of land in this area, and I know of other people who have met with other Russians who were also on the hunt.

Two days ago, I met with a Korean gentleman looking to build dorms north of the Bay. He plans to import contract labor from other countries for a fee, house them for a fee, and deliver them to work locations. Look all across America and you will find this being done. He already is doing this in other areas, and if he comes to this area, he will be extremely successful in that business.

Though the Germans have always (or at least for the past 20 years or so) been something of a slow trickle into the area. A decent number of them seem to be friends or business aquaintances of Raimund Hernden, the German businessman who bought and developed Bluewater Bay.

I would be concerned about the Korean businessman's model. I've seen this in other places where it has turned out to be illegal immigrants who end up making $3/hour, and living in conditions that are very, very poor.

Though the Germans have always (or at least for the past 20 years or so) been something of a slow trickle into the area. A decent number of them seem to be friends or business aquaintances of Raimund Hernden, the German businessman who bought and developed Bluewater Bay.

I would be concerned about the Korean businessman's model. I've seen this in other places where it has turned out to be illegal immigrants who end up making $3/hour, and living in conditions that are very, very poor.

I can assure you that the business model you refer to is not the type business this particular person is operates.

>>There's a sandwich shop by me that got bouught by a couple from the UK last year.<<

Anyone whose been to the UK and have seen their "idea" of a sandwich will know this place ain't gonna make it. For those who haven't been across the pond, a British sandwich is essentially a piece of bread, a thin pink line (which is 1 thin slice of ham), salad (i.e. lettuce), a schmeer of butter, and another piece of bread.

Give me some goomba from NY who REALLY knows their way around a sandwich--now you're talkin'!! :clap_1:

>>Two days ago, I met with a Korean gentleman looking to build dorms north of the Bay. He plans to import contract labor from other countries for a fee, house them for a fee, and deliver them to work locations. Look all across America and you will find this being done. He already is doing this in other areas, and if he comes to this area, he will be extremely successful in that business.<<

So this is what all this development is leading up to....sounds as if we may have to dust off our copy of the Emancipation Proclamation.

Holy Cow, I'm gone for a week and our real estate market is crashing . Someone should have told all the buyers that I've been working with because I haven't had time to breathe!

With all due respect Mack, I think these reported figures are off a bit. From the Emerald Coast MLS, it looks like from 1/1/05 to present, 230 residences went under contract in zip code 32413. The average price was $768,004 and the average sq foot price was $491.45. Median price was $614,500.

Total230$768,004$491.45$614,500$125,000$4,300,00092

Also, I read recently that this zip code is a poor sampling because the zip code actually runs from Seacrest Beach on 30 A to past Tidewater on Panama City Beach and there's such a vast difference in property values that it's not even close to being indicative of property values on 30A. For instance, looking at just the part of 30A that is in this zip code, there were 83 pendings for the same price (pretty good percentage of the zip since we don't have 29 stories per 200 running feet) The Average Price Pending in the 30A portion was $1,007,952, the median price was $842,500 and the average price per sq foot was $551.81.

2005 (jAN-jUNE)

Total82$1,007,952$555.81$842,500$234,500$4,300,00088

Just wanted to clear those prices up since this board is for people with interest in South Walton and the area code apparently includes areas of Bay County which skews the values downward significantly.

Also, for those grim reapers out there, during the same time frame in 2004, There were about 33% more sales (not a crash in my opinion) which may be due to the fact that the Alexander went under contract in that time frame and there really was no new preconstruction going to hard contract during those months this year. I do think that there has been a reduction in sales since last year. Of course last year was the hottest since Lord knows so we're still cool in my opinion. Don't have a calculator handy but looks like the appreciation in the 30A section of 32413 has been slightly over 50% in the past year which is still higher than most areas of the country. :clap_1:

2004 (jAN-jUNE)

Total122$626,445$348.99$600,000$99,500$3,115,00091


I popped onto the board tonight because I received an email about the board stating:

"I have been reading all the doom-and-gloom prophecies about condos in the South Walton area" " the fallout is that a lot of people who are considering investments in the South Walton area think there's a dark cloud overhead".

My first question after reading this thread would be to ask Skier if he owns property here or is he just trying to drive the prices down so he can purchase some (this was the inference in the email I received). Also, has he ever spent enough time here to REALLY know the area and it's assets. I have been all over the world and south walton is truly unique. It has become the prototype design for urban sprawl as anyone familiar with new urbanism will agree. Does this mean we are immune to changes in the economy. Absolutely not. But lets get real.

1) The baby boomers have 20 years to go before they've peaked and the trend has ALWAYS been for people to retire in Florida.

2) The state's population is predicated to be 100 million by 2050. "Roughly every 20 years since 1830, Florida's population has doubled, and doubled, and doubled again," said Allen Overman, a professor in the Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department at the University of Florida in Gainesville."

3) We are the 2nd most driven to location in the state next to Disney.

4) The new airport will expose many people from all over to our area.

The list goes on and on. This is not Deluth, Montana nor is this Miami Beach or even Cape Coral. Generalizations just can't be made and people should look more closely at what's really happening here. My personal experiences are that people LOVE this area and want to purchase once they experience it's beauty. The only question is whether they can afford it or not. It sometimes seems almost like a caste system regarding our real estate.

While our beaches have gotten pricey, they are still much less than comparable coastal Florida areas. Inland (15 minutes to the beach) is still very affordable. When I compare Freeport to Clearwater which is essentially the same relationship to the beach area, I know that there is so much growth to come to this area and the people that are "naysaying" remind me of my parents when they hit Clearwater in 1968 and didn't buy the "woods" along US 19. In the short term anything can happen but when we're gone, our children will certainly be happy that we found the Florida Panhandle.

Numerous news articles within the past 24 hours show continuing increases in real estate values: El Paso - up 17%, Real estate surge continues: South Tahoe median home price hits $460,000, Florida Today - House prices jump $7000.....

Will there be a downturn? I'm sure there will but with a 50% increase this year, I'll be happy with a downturn to 25% or even 15% next year. Sure beats my money market. And then there's always the impending upturn that follows the downturn. I'm here for the long haul and what a place to be!

For our brothers (and sisters) to the east:

Neighborhood Profile: 32413
Zip Code 32413

Year 2005 Median Loan Amount $213,960
Month May Median Loan to Sales Price Ratio 0.72%
Median Sale Price $298,350
Median Assessed Value $83,112
Median Square Feet 1308
Median Sale Price to Assessed Value Ratio 3.59%
Median Price Per Sq. Ft. $228 Median Number of Beds 3
Number of Sales 22
Median Price Per Bedroom $99,450
Last Recording Date N/A
Price Index 259.43
Change in Price from
Previous Month 40.51%

Skier, I apologize. After reading other threads, I found that you do own property in the area. It would therefore not be in your best interest for you to be trying to drive the demand down for this area with your posts of doom for 30A.

Your post about Watercolor decreasing in price seems to overinflate one instance. Overall, Watercolor lots are way up from last year. I saw a couple of people significantly reducing prices in Rosemary last year to beat the buildout time but this didn't mean that the market was crashing. Just the opposite - we were stronger than ever and the people dumping their real estate just sold quicker.

There are many circumstances why someone might need to liquidate property and without a trend (which would be more than 1 or 2), I certainly wouldn't be making drastic predictions. The facts are that the appreciation continues to rise on 30A. In fact Seacrest Beach has risen about $10/sq ft every week since the season started.

Anyone whose been to the UK and have seen their "idea" of a sandwich will know this place ain't gonna make it. For those who haven't been across the pond, a British sandwich is essentially a piece of bread, a thin pink line (which is 1 thin slice of ham), salad (i.e. lettuce), a schmeer of butter, and another piece of bread.

Give me some goomba from NY who REALLY knows their way around a sandwich--now you're talkin'!! :clap_1:

AMEN! Our special today is a Bland Sandwich with Chips (which really means fries)