In response to Bob on property flippers thread--
I hope you aren't betting your life savings on the up, up and up theory. I agree wth pg0178. The demographiscs and prices and inventory don't add up to any more growth. In fact, all the signs point to a nasty fall. Any historical runup in stocks, real estate, bonds, gold, silver, etc. like the current runup in real estate has ALWAYS historically ended in a crash. If you own property, but your life, net worth and living don't depend on these high prices, you will be fine. But, watch out if you're betting the farm.
The market in SoWal isn't just frothy, there is "irrational exuberance" abounding with all of those that don't see the warning signs staring them in the face.
Within 12 months, come back and read these posts by us pessimists (I believe most of us on the pessimistic side are trained financial professionals). I hope you can call me chicken little at that time, but I wouldn't bet on it. 100% appreciation over the course of a year of two is not reasonable. Those that have been in for a couple of years should be okay. those that got in the last 12 to 18 months will get slaughtered if they were counting on flipping at a profit and they don't have the staying power to hold the property (or in the case of some of the developments, heaven forbid that must build a house within 2 to 3 years of purchase).
I remember having these exact same conversations with the stock market Bulls in 1999. They were sure the model had changed forever and that the old ways of looking at the market were no longer valid. They laughed at me for putting my money in money market funds. they weren't laughing in 2000/2001. And, look at the market since the crash. It's basicaly been flat for 5 years. Look at Japan. Stagnant for 20 years after huge runups in real estate and then a crash. The current runup looks too good to be true--so it probably is.
All that said, I still love my home in SoWal.
good luck.
Replies
126
Beach Fanatic
Walton Sun:
BY PASHA CARROLL SUN REPORTER
While South Walton is still a hot spot for real estate, the market seems to be softening ever so slightly.
Homes are taking a few weeks longer to sell and prices, still astronomically high compared to undiscovered South Walton, have leveled and are hovering.
?What we saw last year was really amazing, I doubt it will happen again,? local Realtor Associate Bobby Johnson said. ?It overshot itself. Now it is just backtracking and simply readjusting.?
?We defiantly inflated our prices on this peninsula, because we could,? local real estate developer John King said.
Just because prices have stabilized does not mean the bubble has burst, as national reports have eluded. It just means Realtors will have to work a little harder, Johnson said.
?This is the real deal. We made crazy money, now we just have to work for it,? Johnson said.
?We are making hay while the sun shines,? King said.
And the sun is still shining brightly over South Walton. Only now a few clouds might offer minutes of shade.
?When people talk about slowing down, they are talking about sales time,? King said. ?It used to take 30 days to sell, now it might take 90 days.?
?Typically it takes six months to sell a home,? Johnson said. ?Realtors were doing it in hours. We got a little spoiled.?
Johnson does not think however, that County Road 30A will ever see a decrease in sales. If anything he says the road will become more elite.
?I believe in 30A. That?s what it is all about,? Johnson said.
He said he continuously sees celebrities enjoying 30A?s beauty. King said for the 240 lots he has platted and under construction, there are still 500 people on the waiting list.
With the market a little slower, Johnson hopes life will return to normal and the South Walton real estate market will be more realistic.
?If it kept up like that, I couldn?t have kept up,? Johnson said. ?The stress level was too much.?
He said now selling real estate will be more like it was when he got in the business four years ago, hard work and the craft of handling an ever changing market.
?Now we can get back to living a normal life,? Johnson said.
BY PASHA CARROLL SUN REPORTER
While South Walton is still a hot spot for real estate, the market seems to be softening ever so slightly.
Homes are taking a few weeks longer to sell and prices, still astronomically high compared to undiscovered South Walton, have leveled and are hovering.
?What we saw last year was really amazing, I doubt it will happen again,? local Realtor Associate Bobby Johnson said. ?It overshot itself. Now it is just backtracking and simply readjusting.?
?We defiantly inflated our prices on this peninsula, because we could,? local real estate developer John King said.
Just because prices have stabilized does not mean the bubble has burst, as national reports have eluded. It just means Realtors will have to work a little harder, Johnson said.
?This is the real deal. We made crazy money, now we just have to work for it,? Johnson said.
?We are making hay while the sun shines,? King said.
And the sun is still shining brightly over South Walton. Only now a few clouds might offer minutes of shade.
?When people talk about slowing down, they are talking about sales time,? King said. ?It used to take 30 days to sell, now it might take 90 days.?
?Typically it takes six months to sell a home,? Johnson said. ?Realtors were doing it in hours. We got a little spoiled.?
Johnson does not think however, that County Road 30A will ever see a decrease in sales. If anything he says the road will become more elite.
?I believe in 30A. That?s what it is all about,? Johnson said.
He said he continuously sees celebrities enjoying 30A?s beauty. King said for the 240 lots he has platted and under construction, there are still 500 people on the waiting list.
With the market a little slower, Johnson hopes life will return to normal and the South Walton real estate market will be more realistic.
?If it kept up like that, I couldn?t have kept up,? Johnson said. ?The stress level was too much.?
He said now selling real estate will be more like it was when he got in the business four years ago, hard work and the craft of handling an ever changing market.
?Now we can get back to living a normal life,? Johnson said.
Beach Fanatic
SoWal Sally's interpretation of the above article:We have no idea what's going on and we're too busy counting our money to care.
Beach Fanatic
hi,
I am impressed by such great a great intelligent discussion: very interesting.
Based on my observations-I do not claim any expertise-I would rather be a buyer than a seller right now.
In comparison to other years the real esazte market seems to be taking a breather and if someone has to sell for what ever reason a buyer maybe able to get a "bargain price".
I won't worry about a bubble burst here until the California market slows which it isn' yet.
Based on my travels 30a offers the best coastal area south of New England and east of california/oregon. where else can you get high elevation property with beautiful lakes and forests and park land.
I would not want to buy or own in such cookie cutter highrise areas such as PCB or Destin which are not as unique as 30A.
If I was buying here I would buy vacant lots on 30A in walking distance of the beach( except possibly some
St. Joe over priced property a mile from the beach) with no build out time. Why no build out time?-so that if skier happens to be right my overhead would be minimal. The risk of not buying on 30a now to take advantage of some bargains maybe the greater risk if you want to retire and live here sometime.
I am impressed by such great a great intelligent discussion: very interesting.
Based on my observations-I do not claim any expertise-I would rather be a buyer than a seller right now.
In comparison to other years the real esazte market seems to be taking a breather and if someone has to sell for what ever reason a buyer maybe able to get a "bargain price".
I won't worry about a bubble burst here until the California market slows which it isn' yet.
Based on my travels 30a offers the best coastal area south of New England and east of california/oregon. where else can you get high elevation property with beautiful lakes and forests and park land.
I would not want to buy or own in such cookie cutter highrise areas such as PCB or Destin which are not as unique as 30A.
If I was buying here I would buy vacant lots on 30A in walking distance of the beach( except possibly some
St. Joe over priced property a mile from the beach) with no build out time. Why no build out time?-so that if skier happens to be right my overhead would be minimal. The risk of not buying on 30a now to take advantage of some bargains maybe the greater risk if you want to retire and live here sometime.
Christini Zambini
Some advice needed:
To build a permanant house (for a family with small children), but wanting to make the best investment possible would you
a) buy a 75x142 on 30A within walking distance to beach (small yard, smallish house (perhaps w/ a gulf view), no amenities but a backyard pool and beach)
or
b) buy a much larger lot for the same price at Wild Heron (large yard, 4000 to 5000 sq. ft. house, golf course, tennis, lake access, etc. but it is Bay County and you have to take a shuttle to the beach).
Large houses at Wild Heron and mid-sized houses on non-development streets of eastern 30A are selling for same price per square foot.
Just wondering what y'all thought. Thanks
To build a permanant house (for a family with small children), but wanting to make the best investment possible would you
a) buy a 75x142 on 30A within walking distance to beach (small yard, smallish house (perhaps w/ a gulf view), no amenities but a backyard pool and beach)
or
b) buy a much larger lot for the same price at Wild Heron (large yard, 4000 to 5000 sq. ft. house, golf course, tennis, lake access, etc. but it is Bay County and you have to take a shuttle to the beach).
Large houses at Wild Heron and mid-sized houses on non-development streets of eastern 30A are selling for same price per square foot.
Just wondering what y'all thought. Thanks
Edited
Admin
Some advice needed:
To build a permanant house (for a family with small children), but wanting to make the best investment possible would you
a) buy a 75x142 on 30A within walking distance to beach (small yard, smallish house (perhaps w/ a gulf view), no amenities but a backyard pool and beach)
or
b) buy a much larger lot for the same price at Wild Heron (large yard, 4000 to 5000 sq. ft. house, golf course, tennis, lake access, etc. but it is Bay County and you have to take a shuttle to the beach).
Large houses at Wild Heron and mid-sized houses on non-development streets of eastern 30A are selling for same price per square foot.
Just wondering what y'all thought. Thanks
The amenities and type of lifestyle are quite different so go where you are more comfortable. The former would make a much better rental if you ever want to do that.
Some people would give anything to be able to walk to the beach or have a view. The market will always be strong for that.
As far as the actual appreciation, that's up in the air. I believe Wild Heron will be very exclusive and hard to buy in one day when it gets filled up with rich retirees and young professionals.
Edited
Beach Fanatic
If it is a primary residence for a family with young children, don't you have to take into account differences in school districts and proximity to other children for after school and weekend fun? How many young families will you find at Wild Heron?
Beach Fanatic
The flip side is that if you've got small children do you want to be living next to a short term rental where the crowd may get a bit rowdy from time to time.
SoWal Expert
The risk of not buying on 30a now to take advantage of some bargains maybe the greater risk if you want to retire and live here sometime.Interesting point of view. :clap_1: If looking to hold for the long term, I could not agree more. Well said.
Christini Zambini
If it is a primary residence for a family with young children, don't you have to take into account differences in school districts and proximity to other children for after school and weekend fun? How many young families will you find at Wild Heron?
Not many young families at Wild Heron or any part of 30A for that matter--we're all pretty scattered around. We already live in a rental community and SOME renters can be annoying and loud. I'm just wondering, all other things being equal, what y'all think the better long-term investment would be.
Admin
I think it's pretty close CCK. My gut says that if you can get a gulf view you're golden. If it turns out the other way, well then being able to walk down to the beach with your kids in the evening is something money won't be able to replace for you or them.
Whatever the case, if you think it's a toss up too, then go with your instinct.
Whatever the case, if you think it's a toss up too, then go with your instinct.
Christini Zambini
You're right, Kurt. Our instinct says to stay on 30A. We've lived in the area for 4 years and it feels like home. While the amenities at Wild Heron would be very nice, I don't think I could take the bugs! We're planning to build and live in the house awhile so as a long-term investment you're right that either would be fine.
Thanks
Thanks
Admin
You're right, Kurt. Our instinct says to stay on 30A. We've lived in the area for 4 years and it feels like home. While the amenities at Wild Heron would be very nice, I don't think I could take the bugs! We're planning to build and live in the house awhile so as a long-term investment you're right that either would be fine.
Thanks
Make sure you have an outdoor shower and plenty of storage for beach toys. ;-)
BTW - I don't know if bugs are allowed in Wild Heron.
Christini Zambini
Make sure you have an outdoor shower and plenty of storage for beach toys. ;-)
BTW - I don't know if bugs are allowed in Wild Heron.
What about kids and all their beach toys, bikes, scooters, trampolines (can't have one anyway because of homeowner's insurance), skim boards, etc. Our house in Wild Heron would look like the Clampett's. Although they had a very nice house, there were critters swimming in the pool!
Admin
What about kids and all their beach toys, bikes, scooters, trampolines (can't have one anyway because of homeowner's insurance), skim boards, etc. Our house in Wild Heron would look like the Clampett's. Although they had a very nice house, there were critters swimming in the pool!
Cement pond.
got any pics?
What about kids and all their beach toys, bikes, scooters, trampolines (can't have one anyway because of homeowner's insurance), skim boards, etc. Our house in Wild Heron would look like the Clampett's. Although they had a very nice house, there were critters swimming in the pool!
One of my biggest problems finding a house down there is one with storage (read garage). Where do people store bikes, and other toys that the salty air would destroy?
Christini Zambini
We have 3 bikes in a corner of our great room.
got any pics?
We have 3 bikes in a corner of our great room.
Where do you store, roller blades, scooters, skateboards?
Christini Zambini
We store almost everything in the house, but we have a lot of closets. We put all the sports equipment in the closet under the stairs. If your house is on pilings (even short ones) there is enough crawl space underneath to store things like shovels, ladders, etc. Stuff rusts, but it would rust in a garage or shed too. We have our plywood for hurricanes sitting on 2x4 "shelves" under the house. We use our attic a lot, but we have air conditioned storage room up there.
The first thing you'll learn when you move to the beach is that we Americans have too much stuff. It is easier to get rid of things when you don't have room to store them. And you're more careful about what you buy. It is actually quite liberating. Part of the simplified lifestyle of living at the beach is that you don't have a house full of junk.
The first thing you'll learn when you move to the beach is that we Americans have too much stuff. It is easier to get rid of things when you don't have room to store them. And you're more careful about what you buy. It is actually quite liberating. Part of the simplified lifestyle of living at the beach is that you don't have a house full of junk.
got any pics?
The first thing you'll learn when you move to the beach is that we Americans have too much stuff. It is easier to get rid of things when you don't have room to store them. And you're more careful about what you buy. It is actually quite liberating. Part of the simplified lifestyle of living at the beach is that you don't have a house full of junk.
Amen that... Preach on ...
Beach Fanatic
[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
[/font]
[/font]- [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A loss of personal and professional productivity[/font]
- [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A loss of future motivation[/font]
- [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]An inability to delay gratification or tolerate frustration[/font]
- [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A false sense of entitlement[/font]
- [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Low self-esteem[/font][font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/font]
- [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Low self-worth[/font] [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/font]
- [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Loss of self-confidence[/font][font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] [/font]
- [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Preocupation with externals[/font]
- [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Depression[/font]
- [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Self-absorption
[/font] - [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]High regard for outer self/low regard for inner self[/font]
- [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]"Survivor's" guilt/shame [/font]
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- [font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Other compulsive-addictive behaviors: i.e. rampant materialism and consumerism[/font]
Beach Lover
As a message board 'virgin' and content lurker, I wanted to add some storage comments.
We have three teens who generate more storable junk than you can shake a stick at. It probably does not help I am a bit of a storer of do-it-yourself products. We just finished a house in Seaside and a KEY part of the plan was putting an outside storage closet on the house that accessed under the staircase. 3 bikes, beach chairs, umbrellas, tools, etc. all fit in a tightly sealed area.
Best move I ever made.
We have three teens who generate more storable junk than you can shake a stick at. It probably does not help I am a bit of a storer of do-it-yourself products. We just finished a house in Seaside and a KEY part of the plan was putting an outside storage closet on the house that accessed under the staircase. 3 bikes, beach chairs, umbrellas, tools, etc. all fit in a tightly sealed area.
Best move I ever made.
Beach Fanatic
Beach Lover
We had the same problem it seems. We looked and looked, and none of the houses had storage space. We finally found one that had storage for the owner under the stairs. We converted another closet. Couldn't do without them. Too much junk to haul back and forth from Atlanta.
Beach Lover
If you are building a new house. Ask your builder how much room is above the garage for storage. Most of the time there is a great deal of space that is closed off and never used. You may be able lay a sub floor and have a walk up stair case built in your garage. Another idea in under stairs to finish in as a closet.
Beach Comber
AMEN! Our special today is a Bland Sandwich with Chips (which really means fries)
As someone who lives in the UK who bought a lot in Rosemary last year with the intention to build a vacation home I am hoping that my fellow countrymen and the Eurotrash don't discover South Walton any time soon.
I like it the way it is.
Very unfair libel on our food by the way. You will be saying we don't have dentists next...
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