Sales on 30A for July/Aug 2005

If my memory serves me, I thought SKIER posted that he had a house in WC? Bad memory (sometimes) or just SKIER hiding behind false identities ??

That is the big mystery on the board.

I previously read a post for the 10 reasons we have malaise in the market. None are in sync with what I found out in the check out line at Publix this morning. The REAL reasons:

1) Fear that the rumors of a carnivorous Eastern Lake Ness Monster are true
2) Fear of errant cluster bombs from Eglin obliterating entire South Walton neighborhoods
3) Dreading the possibility of a Biloxi casino barge breaking loose during the next BIG ONE and becoming permanently lodged in the dunes at Blue Mountain Beach
4) Not wanting to possibly step on Sponge Bob, now that Bikini Bottom has been confirmed as existing off the beach at Seaside
5) News that Ray Nagin is now in charge of devising new evacuation plan for South Walton County
6) Finding out that Jim Cantore is your next door neighbor, in charge of the new show on The Weather Channel titled : Grayton Beach - How People are Preparing for 40 Years of Hurricane Hell at Ground Zero
7) News that a previously undiscovered official map has confirmed that the Bay County line extends to the intersection of 30A and Hwy 98 West
8) News that former County Commissioner Tim Pauls in now in charge of all county beach accesses
9) Fear of inadvertently purchasing next door to Sheryl and Lance, and being kept up all night as he does his drugs while she plays her incessant rock and roll
10)New press release stating Kurt, Smiling Joe and River Otter are moving to North Dakota to brainstorm a new bestseller tentatively titled ? The 12 Steps Required to Deal With the Embarrassment of Owning Property in South Walton County, Florida, Where Property Values for Many Have Tripled in the Last 4 Years, But Now May or May Not Decline in The Short or Long Term, No One Really Knows What is Going to Happen For Sure

:nono1: These are the facts, people!

Wetwilly

Check it out, the post about Seaside was by a new member named Skieir. Not by me.

1. They want to be near a beach with white sand, sunsets, and dunes but at a higher elevation (it's nice to be near a beach and not be in a flood zone -- you can find many communities like this in SoWal).

IMHO, both skier and skeieeeieir sound a bit greedy. I hope if you are selling, that you can make a nice profit...just PLEASE don't buy another property anywhere near ME!!!! I would add that one of the reasons we love the area is to get away from pompous people who feel the need to show off their "wealth". Oh, well...at least most of the people in the area fall into this category.

Paula, do you have any information about the elevations of 30a areas? We're in Watersound on the lake, and I know it feels like we're pretty well elevated off the gulf, but I actually have no idea what our elevation above sea level is. I hadn't given it much thought until a couple of weeks ago.
Jack

Paula, do you have any information about the elevations of 30a areas? We're in Watersound on the lake, and I know it feels like we're pretty well elevated off the gulf, but I actually have no idea what our elevation above sea level is. I hadn't given it much thought until a couple of weeks ago.
Jack

Cork,

In terms of comps, lot 61 in passages (two lots down from lot 63 you mention above) is for sale for $650k (mls 394250).

You're data is outdated. Lot 61 is listed for $595. Started at $799, dropped it to $650K. It went under contract in 10 days and busted. Relisted for $595K

Lot 63 when it sold in an arms length transaction last September. It hasn't been snatched up yet. As I said in the message that started this thread, if you believe in the market and where prices have been over the last 8 to 12 months, then there are some real deals to be had.

Lot 63 way overpaid. The seller made $582,500 gross profit in less than a year. Who advised that buyer? Paid full asking price too. Yes, there are some deals to be had and that's why a smart investor is going to begin buying on the ebb. Most RECENT data indicates an appreciable increase in pending sales over the last 11 days which a smart investor will track. Is it time to buy? Too early to tell but should certainly be watching data other than the county appraiser's office.

Is anybody buying? Here's the numbers of 30A lots that went under contract this year. Seems we might be seeing the first signs of an uptrend or it could be short term inmigration - too early to tell.

Jan - 93
Feb - 92
March - 93
April - 64
May - 50
June - 42
July - 24
August - 25
Sept - 1st 11 days - 16 ( if it stays the same this month, that would be 43 this month which is interesting)

Homes on 30A:

Jan - 40
Feb - 38
March- 53
April - 44
May - 33
June - 37
July - 18
August - 13
Sept - 1st 11 days - 6 (which means if it stays the same for the rest of the month, they'll be 30 going under contract in Sept)

Another example is the recent lot release by Watercolor of the lots behind Publix. These are the least desirable lots in Watercolor (farther from the beach, behind a shopping center, less amenities, etc.). They sold in June at an average of around $575k. There are now several lots for sale in Phase II for less than the average for Phase IV just 2 months ago. One of the lots is for sale for $450k!!!!!! This is a very specific fact.


Yes, the lot is $450 but it's significantly smaller than the one that sold for $585K in 4/05. Also, it has to start construction by end of 06. The other doesn't have to until end of 07. You need to compare apples to apples with "specific" data. Also, I had several people registered for Phase IV but when we saw the location they pulled out. Many people bought Watercolor to flip. I live on 30A so I have no problem holding my property for more than a few months. I've flipped but you can't always make $200K in 2 months.

No doubt, Joe did a great job of marketing. People see the pretty ads in Atlanta, call the office and buy. Watercolor is a beautiful project but buyers who go straight to the developer aren't going to be exposed to anything but the developer's community. I've got a lot listed right now, large enough to put a house, pool AND carriage house on - only 5 lots from the water in front of Phase IV for just about $550. Lets see...$450 for a tram to the beach or $550 for a view and quick walk. As a resident and long-term investor, I would so much rather be there. As a "flipper", don't know what I'd choose to be honest.

Not an average generalization. The best place to look for facts on closings is the Walton County website. Not the MLS.

Yes and no. The county has more comprehensive data because they have sales that were not listed in the MLS. The county data appears to be about 2 months behind so if you want CURRENT data, the MLS is the only place to go. Also, the county data is too cumbersome to extract the data and there's no history on the sale to understand the dynamics of the sale.

My point is not that the AVERAGE price for lots or homes has increased or decreased. But, that specific and very comparable properties are selling at lower prices than last year and in some case just a couple of months ago. I'm giving specifics, not averages. These are the specific facts. Not the average, generic facts.

These are isolated, abberant facts that I hope are not intended to scare people. Any trend analysis MUST include averages and means. I can site as many people who have overpaid as those who have sold too low. People die, people get divorced, people's incomes drop (like pilots). One or two people who make poor or desperate decisions does not dictate a market.

Many of these sellers will still make money if they bought a 18, 24, 36, etc months ago.

MOST of these sellers will make money. I have a buyer who went under contract on a house for $889K in 4/05. It just appraised at $1,099,000 and that appreciation was over the "bubble explosion" that you seem to be portraying.

Yep, the overcrowded market, swamped with investors will continue to cause the market to fall.

No, I don't. But Kurt or someone else who posts here might. I read somewhere on this site that our elevations are quite high, and our place at Seacrest seems up pretty high. I poked around the Internet today to see if I could find an elevation map, but wasn't successful. Maybe I'll stop by a bookstore or library this week to see if I can find an atlast with elevations on it. But I realized that we'd need to compare coastal elevation levels (e.g., how does SoWal compare to other coastal areas in the US) rather than a general elevation map.

For Paula...the airport people are referring to is the proposed international airport to be located in Panama City, with a freeway flyover between the airport and Seagrove. One of the impediments to real estate sales in the past has been inaccessibility to markets other than the (driving) SE. Oddly, that was one of the things we liked best about South Walton. You will find the book "Green Empire: The St. Joe Company and the Remaking of the Florida Panhandle" very intriguing, given your business background.

These posts regarding the slowdown in the South Walton market are interesting to me, the opinions so diverse. I tend to agree that those who purchased recently and speculatively, in hopes of spinning these properties may be writing some checks to unload them. We considered investing in some pre-construction condos and decided against doing so when we researched how many new lots and units were being created. Even without the hurricanes, sharks, etc. we would have seen (and even needed) a market correction. Arizona is a good example of what happens when too many units flood the market. Every time there is a small demand increase there, developers rush in and overbuild. Consequently, real estate profits are lower there than in most resort areas. By contrast, it is so difficult to build in CA that even with the nation's highest real estate prices, we continue to enjoy the highest profit margins in the country. This in spite of earthquakes, wildfires, floods, landslides (our four seasons!), and the high cost of living, by the way.

So my point is, people will always recognize quality of life, both in terms of natural resources and the area's determination to protect it. South Walton has done a pretty good job of requiring quality development with protection of resources and protection of quality of life. Hurricanes will always be part of life down there and not every year will be like the past two. I believe the major factors in the current slowdown are inflated inventory of properties, combined with the price increases of the past three years simply reducing the number of people who qualify for investment.

Our Grayton property, which was purchased a little over three years ago, has increased in value by three to four times what we paid if one looks at closing prices on comparable properties. How could we moan about the difference between three and four times, if we needed to move the property? Another big plus in South Walton is the demand for rentals, which offset a recent buyer's expenses handsomely and can even cover expenses for someone who bought several years ago. I am unaware of anyplace in the country where this is the case in a resort community. The "bubble" hasn't burst, it's just coasting, pun intended. There is only so much property near an ocean/gulf and it will always be in high demand.

Having so opined, I am curious to hear what others have to say about Grayton Beach, specifically. We only looked at Grayton properties, believing that at the end of the day, that would be the most sought after location. My (retired) engineer husband also pointed out that Grayton was the only beach community in the area that had many hosues that were nearly or more than 100 years old and still standing. He felt the "deep" beach and the dunes, if protected, would do the protective job they have obviously done for a century or more. Also, the limit on development coupled with the State Park lands would keep a lid on the amount of inventory that could ever be on the market. Does anyone agree, disagree, whatever? We are not inclined to sell at this time, but are always interested in the dynamics of the marketplace. I welcome all opinions.

regarding elevations:
the survey of your property may give elevation.

I was not here during Opal, but I know that Grayton Beach did flood quite badly during Opal. The water was trapped behind the dunes for quite some time and Grayton Beach was an extension of Western Lake for awhile.

I would say after reading some of these "longer, rambling" posts, I do prefer "facts and realities" over "all the reasons we have a beautiful beach" posts...Too much of the latter contain "feel good and I didn't make a bad decision not to sell feelings"...I have found the Wal Co. sales number posted monthly in the Walton Sun to be the most helpful...Is anyone familiar w/them and their accuracy...I know they are purchased from Metro Market Trends by the Sun...Are there other internet related sources that show prop. under contract or monthly compiled numbers...strictly numbers

To skier, is there just no foot traffic or are there a lot of lookers and no takers...are agents showing a lot of property or are they just sitting around trying to work their existing book?

Donna, I think middle/upper Sonoma County to be an incredible place to have a home. Other than real estate costs, what makes building there so costly?? You are correct about Grayton Beach. It is the crown jewel of the entire area. Elevation there is only 3-7 feet. Not good. I was wondering if Grayton flooded during Opal, and look forward to what locals say also.