Sales on 30A for July/Aug 2005

I just received the Spt re-sale listing from Watercolor, and everyone is both right and possibly, slightly wrong. The lowest priced lot in phase 11, is $450, which backs right up to hwy 395, with a little over 12 mos to build, a couple of lots away with more room to the rear and another 3 mos to buildout is $565. When you get away from hwy 395 the asks go up to $700. on the same street. The real estate terms for W/C & W/S is location, location, build out.
The main point on the re-sale listing is: 1) a lot are listed, more then ever before. 2) no one is yet selling cheap (unless they held too long and have get plans, builder, crew, supplys, etc. with not much time to do it.).
If you wish to buy a house in W/C, you better have $1,000 a sq ft today. Tomorrow, who knows.

Who is "everyone?" What were they right about and how are they all slightly wrong?

There are plenty of houses available in WaterColor well under $1,000 per sqft. In fact I see some around $620 per sqft. The avg price per sq ft for the active listings is WaterColor as of 9/11/05 is $863. You may want to recheck your numbers.

Hey Cork,

The definition of market price is what a willing buyer will pay a willing seller for an item in a free market.

So, you need to do some more homework. Prices are definitely falling. The examples in watersound are just a few. I never said the sellers weren't making money only that specific comparable transaction prices are falling.

You seem to have more data at your fingertips than me. So check it out regarding the market for properties like lot 27 in Cypress Cove listed at $450k. You will find that lot 28 in Cypress Cove has resold 4 times (it's the one next door to the lot listed at $450k). The most recent sale occurred in Jan 2005 for $618k. Lot 24 sold for $615k in May. Lot 22 sold for $635k in April. Also, the build out date on lot 27 is still 16 months away. Not really that imminent. Bottom line, prices have fallen since recent market highs. Lot 27 is now 25% lower than comparable lots sold just a few months ago. Like the lots in watersound prices are falling in watercolor--period.

As for the comment on needing $1,000 to buy a home in Watercolor. In May, the average listing price of homes in Watercolor per the listing sheet from Arvida was $938 per square foot. Since that time, asking prices have been tumbling down. The average is now around $850. So, if anyone is seriously interested in paying $1000 per square foot for a home in watercolor, please let me know. There are numerous nice homes in Phase I that can be had for well under $1000 per square foot, but I will gladly part with mine for $1000 per square foot.

Skier,

You say and I quote: "...I will gladly part with mine for $1000 per square foot...." If that is true, as asked by others on this board, please provide the MLS # and information about your house for sale in WC. :boxing:

If you are really interested in selling it as you say you are, you would be willing to give up the 411. What do you have to lose? I know you say that you don't want to give out any personal info but....you may find a buyer here you never know.

If you won't give up the MLS, then at least give us some info about the house like SqFt, size, what phase, asking price, etc.

With so many bullish people on this board, you may find a buyer if the asking price is close enough to the so called "market price". Come on give up some info.

You guys trying to break Skier? Ain't gonna happen. You are wasting your breath. I think Skier has personal reasons for not wanting to be attacked by many people on this board. How can you guys blame him? I would be a little intimidated when looking across the isle.

BTW, the most expensive (total price, not price per sq ft) home in WaterColor is priced at $1,248 per sqft. That would be mls # 402377, priced just under $4M

You guys trying to break Skier? Ain't gonna happen. You are wasting your breath. I think Skier has personal reasons for not wanting to be attacked by many people on this board. How can you guys blame him? I would be a little intimidated when looking across the isle.

BTW, the most expensive (total price, not price per sq ft) home in WaterColor is priced at $1,248 per sqft. That would be mls # 402377, priced just under $4M

Not trying to break Skier at all just want to see his digs and help him try and sell it by advertising it on the board. I know we will get nowhere asking for this.

As for the $3.95M WC "cottage", here is the description from the MLS:

This Watercolor "Beach Cottage" is located on the SOUTH SIDE of 30-A with privacy to the west overlooking the Lake and the Gulf of Mexico. A "cottage" is an understated description of this sophisticated design, yet comfortable living space, but the living space creates a warm and comfortable atmosphere for the beach. The attention to details is incrediable. Bedroom doors open to a large open space, yet the design allows complete privacy in each bedroom. The kitchen, living, dining area are open for wonderful family outings and they all open to a large balcony. Master bedroom is on the third floor with a small office alcove and wonderful private areas including you a balcony overlooking Western Lake and the Gulf of Mexico. You could live here full time, or enjoy memorable vacations. This is a home that you must see to understand. Amenities include tennis, swimming, canoeing, shopping, WaterColor exercise facilities, and many more. This 5 bedroom (one of the bedrooms is a bunk room)4.5 bathroom home comes completely furnished, with many added bonuses.

Pretty sweet pad south of 30-A with a good view of the Gulf over the dunes. Don't know if anything is expected to be built in the view line but too rich for my blood.

For that house, they paid $3.6M back in Mar '05. The list price then was the same as today, $3.995M.

Did I mention they went for a quick flip? They bought it on the 17th of Mar and relisted it on the 30th of Mar for $4.15M. The listing expired and they just relisted it at the lower price of $3.995M

Skier,

Sorry but you're way to time consuming. I simply don't have the time to validate your information which is often inaccurate. Are prices dropping? I can only say that if you look at a lot yesterday that just had a price decrease today, yes "it" dropped but the MLS sales prices today are still about 20-25% over last year at this time. You continue to ignore that fact. :nono1:

In a past life, it was my job to analyze data and one thing I know is not to draw premature conclusions. Yes I do have more data at my disposal in many areas, not just watercolor and watersound.

I don't know what's going to happen in this market any more than you or anyone else does. You make very broad conclusions about the entire real estate market with isolated information about an area that is important to you. Watercolor and Watersound don't constitute the entire real estate market.

I've tried not to make conclusions about your motives but common sense tells us that if you really do have property listed for sale, there's no better venue than this one to sell it.

Not trying to break Skier at all just want to see his digs and help him try and sell it by advertising it on the board. I know we will get nowhere asking for this.

As for the $3.95M WC "cottage", here is the description from the MLS:

This Watercolor "Beach Cottage" is located on the SOUTH SIDE of 30-A with privacy to the west overlooking the Lake and the Gulf of Mexico. A "cottage" is an understated description of this sophisticated design, yet comfortable living space, but the living space creates a warm and comfortable atmosphere for the beach. The attention to details is incrediable. Bedroom doors open to a large open space, yet the design allows complete privacy in each bedroom. The kitchen, living, dining area are open for wonderful family outings and they all open to a large balcony. Master bedroom is on the third floor with a small office alcove and wonderful private areas including you a balcony overlooking Western Lake and the Gulf of Mexico. You could live here full time, or enjoy memorable vacations. This is a home that you must see to understand. Amenities include tennis, swimming, canoeing, shopping, WaterColor exercise facilities, and many more. This 5 bedroom (one of the bedrooms is a bunk room)4.5 bathroom home comes completely furnished, with many added bonuses.

Pretty sweet pad south of 30-A with a good view of the Gulf over the dunes. Don't know if anything is expected to be built in the view line but too rich for my blood.

Nothing will be built in front of these homes. I can SEE these homes from my west facing windows, but I could not SEE paying those prices!

Nothing will be built in front of these homes. I can SEE these homes from my west facing windows, but I could not SEE paying those prices!

Regarding that house, I understand that the builder was using it as his showcase house with custom everything. I also understood that the builder had close to $1,000 per sq ft in it when he sold it back in March. It does have unobstructed Gulf views from the Master suite on the 3rd floor.

I seem to recall that Opal brought a storm surge of 16 feet when it made landfall in Walton County. It was a Category 4 storm that stalled out in the Gulf and weakened, but the stall still resulted in a larger than normal storm surge. There was a lot of water. Porch furniture from Washaway House was floating down in front of The Red Bar. The original Conch Out, one of the little Butler cottages, was completely washed away. It was about a hundred years old and not elevated. But most of the older homes remain in Grayton and the area recovered pretty quickly. Dunes were pretty flat for some time and still are not the towering 30-ft. beauties that I remember from our childhood. Slower to recover were inland areas. Almost every tree in the beautiful lake yard in DeFuniak was destroyed. Now, most of the big trees are pines, but there were many oaks and other deciduous trees there prior to Opal. If we had a Katrina, it wouldn't make that much difference how high the water came up, because the winds would destroy everything up to Highway 20.

In response to the question about why it's so hard to build in CA...answer is growth management programs imposed by smart local governments. In most areas, development is required to pay its own way or go away, meaning infrastructure and connection fees for water and sewer, and more recently being required to build a certain percentage of "affordable" or workforce housing units as an inclusionary part of their projects. (15% is common.) The processing of new development (not counting single-family homes) takes about two to three years, because of the environmental documentation. This is just the entitlements process, not construction, and doesn't necessarily include the final design and building permits. It sounds awful and does result in high prices, but is now embraced by developers because their competition cannot possibly catch up when market demand changes. But for those of us who live here, it has been a great way to protect quality of life and community character, not to mention enhancing one's property value. Plus, we're not stuck underwriting the costs of new development here like we are in South Walton. It is shameful how little is required of those developers, especially when the size of their profit margin is considered.

I seem to recall that Opal brought a storm surge of 16 feet when it made landfall in Walton County. It was a Category 4 storm that stalled out in the Gulf and weakened, but the stall still resulted in a larger than normal storm surge. There was a lot of water. Porch furniture from Washaway House was floating down in front of The Red Bar. The original Conch Out, one of the little Butler cottages, was completely washed away. It was about a hundred years old and not elevated. But most of the older homes remain in Grayton and the area recovered pretty quickly. Dunes were pretty flat for some time and still are not the towering 30-ft. beauties that I remember from our childhood. Slower to recover were inland areas. Almost every tree in the beautiful lake yard in DeFuniak was destroyed. Now, most of the big trees are pines, but there were many oaks and other deciduous trees there prior to Opal. If we had a Katrina, it wouldn't make that much difference how high the water came up, because the winds would destroy everything up to Highway 20.

In response to the question about why it's so hard to build in CA...answer is growth management programs imposed by smart local governments. In most areas, development is required to pay its own way or go away, meaning infrastructure and connection fees for water and sewer, and more recently being required to build a certain percentage of "affordable" or workforce housing units as an inclusionary part of their projects. (15% is common.) The processing of new development (not counting single-family homes) takes about two to three years, because of the environmental documentation. This is just the entitlements process, not construction, and doesn't necessarily include the final design and building permits. It sounds awful and does result in high prices, but is now embraced by developers because their competition cannot possibly catch up when market demand changes. But for those of us who live here, it has been a great way to protect quality of life and community character, not to mention enhancing one's property value. Plus, we're not stuck underwriting the costs of new development here like we are in South Walton. It is shameful how little is required of those developers, especially when the size of their profit margin is considered.

Thank you, that sounds like an anti-growth gauntlet. Also, keeps out average folks desiring non-development residences with little time and money. How equal opportunity is that! But like Save Our Homes in Florida, it throws down the challenge to the newbies and non-residents. I guess Florida is becoming more like California. Still, The Valley of the Moon! What a place!

Regarding that house, I understand that the builder was using it as his showcase house with custom everything. I also understood that the builder had close to $1,000 per sq ft in it when he sold it back in March. It does have unobstructed Gulf views from the Master suite on the 3rd floor.

So, this is the green spec house? So, it did finally sell. IMH, this house was WAY over the top. Unusual use of materials (some nice)...and seemed very dark inside. We sent friends to look at it and they were turned off. Different stokes, I guess. I don't undersand the concept of the best views from the master bedroom! We have that as well, but duh...spend most of our waking hours in the living area!

For that house, they paid $3.6M back in Mar '05. The list price then was the same as today, $3.995M.

Did I mention they went for a quick flip? They bought it on the 17th of Mar and relisted it on the 30th of Mar for $4.15M. The listing expired and they just relisted it at the lower price of $3.995M

Jeez.....

Nothing will be built in front of these homes. I can SEE these homes from my west facing windows, but I could not SEE paying those prices!

It is an awesome place - Virtual Tour

So, this is the green spec house? So, it did finally sell. IMH, this house was WAY over the top. Unusual use of materials (some nice)...and seemed very dark inside. We sent friends to look at it and they were turned off. Different stokes, I guess. I don't undersand the concept of the best views from the master bedroom! We have that as well, but duh...spend most of our waking hours in the living area!

I like it a lot. A bit dark from the woods and such creating a contemporary look and feel. The living area is on the 2nd level and has great views. The master is on the 3rd and has better views - typical for beach homes here.

Are there any people on this board who owned homes in Grayton Beach or nearby during Opal who would tell us what it was like to recover from Opal? What was damaged, how long it took for Grayton Beach to be operating again as a place where people could visit. Looks great now so it certainly bounced back from Opal.

Hardest hit was Cottage street - all the old cottages there were washed off their foundations. Water was into the streets but most homes were fine, except for the area along Hotz Avenue.

Skier,

Sorry but you're way to time consuming. I simply don't have the time to validate your information which is often inaccurate. Are prices dropping? I can only say that if you look at a lot yesterday that just had a price decrease today, yes "it" dropped but the MLS sales prices today are still about 20-25% over last year at this time. You continue to ignore that fact. :nono1:

In a past life, it was my job to analyze data and one thing I know is not to draw premature conclusions. Yes I do have more data at my disposal in many areas, not just watercolor and watersound.

I don't know what's going to happen in this market any more than you or anyone else does. You make very broad conclusions about the entire real estate market with isolated information about an area that is important to you. .....

C on the O :clap_1:
You make good points.
I worked in statistics for a brief period (in NO WAY claim to be expert!) and it drives me crazy to read posts that pick examples of a property or two and argue the market from those. :roll: It's just not statistically sound.

I am really enjoying this thread. So many of you have offered such interesting input as to market conditions and reasons for buying in SoWal.
Thrilled we finally got off our duffs and bought instead of just talking about it for years.
I do realize that some people may be caught in build-out times they can't meet and that would be a tough situation, but others who bought in order to re-sell at high profits should know the risks and enjoy the benefits or suffer the consequences. We bought a spec home, got a fair price, and the owner did well.
I am glad to see things leveling and overpriced listings come off the market or drop to marketable prices. That keeps the market healthy in my opinion.

Bottom line - I see the SoWal market in general to be very desirable for years to come and we can't wait to get there!

Re: Smiling Joe

Smiling Joe, did i understand that you get the Metro Market numbers each month...if so, when do you think you might have Jul/Aug numbers...Red

Re: Smiling Joe

Smiling Joe, did i understand that you get the Metro Market numbers each month...if so, when do you think you might have Jul/Aug numbers...Red

I have never paid close attention to when they arrive. When I get them, I will post them.

It is an awesome place - Virtual Tour

It looks better now with furniture in it and because YOU did the video!!!

C on the O :clap_1:
You make good points.
I worked in statistics for a brief period (in NO WAY claim to be expert!) and it drives me crazy to read posts that pick examples of a property or two and argue the market from those. :roll: It's just not statistically sound.

I am really enjoying this thread. So many of you have offered such interesting input as to market conditions and reasons for buying in SoWal.
Thrilled we finally got off our duffs and bought instead of just talking about it for years.
I do realize that some people may be caught in build-out times they can't meet and that would be a tough situation, but others who bought in order to re-sell at high profits should know the risks and enjoy the benefits or suffer the consequences. We bought a spec home, got a fair price, and the owner did well.
I am glad to see things leveling and overpriced listings come off the market or drop to marketable prices. That keeps the market healthy in my opinion.

Bottom line - I see the SoWal market in general to be very desirable for years to come and we can't wait to get there!

I'm not in statistics either, but I do remember from my college courses that you need a relatively large sample size to get a statistically correct answer, especially when the population characteristics can vary greatly and therefore effect the results. So, of course skiers specific examples are not statistically relevant, but I don't think he/she stated that they were.

However, Cork's samples were not statistically valid either (he/she never said they were either). He/she was quoting numbers from very small samples (10, 20, 30, etc homes or lots sold). No way were those sample sizes statistically relevant. In these small sample sizes the population charateristics like square feet, lot size, proximity to the ocean, etc, can significantly swing the averages one way or the other.

So, neither poster's information is relevant from a statistical perspective. If you want statistical relevance, both of these posts should drive you crazy. One is making very specific examples to make a point and the other is generalizing to make a point.

Take each one with a grain of salt or believe one and not the other, but don't argue one is better than the other from statistical perspective.

Back in my statistics days they used to say you needed a sample size of at least 30 in order to use a Normal Distribution, which was typically the easiest from which to calculate probability (at least it was for me).

I never quite understood why 30 was the magic number, though, especially if your universe is substantially larger than that (say, hundreds of thousands or millions or whatever).

Either of you know the answer to that?

SJ and RO are just chompin' at the bit for "The Great Statistics Debate" to begin.......first up is......