Does anyone have any data on what home sales were like for July and August? How many properties went under contract during this period. Is anyone buying anything? It's clear that the flippers have stopped flipping... but what about the other buyers - 2nd homes, vacation homes, etc. -- has everyone stopped buying because of media hype?
Replies
178
got any pics?
SJ and RO are just chompin' at the bit for "The Great Statistics Debate" to begin.......first up is......
Yes, carry on please
Meow
Yes, carry on please
These smilies look like characters from "South Park"!
Beach Lover
Cork,
You forgot to mention Rosemary in your previous comparisons. According to the Walton County records there were 50 closings of IMPROVED properties from 1/1/04 to 7/31/04. From 1/1/05 to 7/31/05 there were only 19. Also, the available inventory has at least tripled since last year. Not sure of the average price, but it appears that the average price did increase but so did the average size of the house sold. So, I'm not sure how the average price per square foot changed.
You forgot to mention Rosemary in your previous comparisons. According to the Walton County records there were 50 closings of IMPROVED properties from 1/1/04 to 7/31/04. From 1/1/05 to 7/31/05 there were only 19. Also, the available inventory has at least tripled since last year. Not sure of the average price, but it appears that the average price did increase but so did the average size of the house sold. So, I'm not sure how the average price per square foot changed.
Beach Lover
Cork,
In response to your responses--
You're data is outdated. Lot 61 is listed for $595. Started at $799, dropped it to $650K. It went under contract in 10 days and busted. Relisted for $595K
And, your point is what. That I was right that prices are falling.
Lot 63 way overpaid. The seller made $582,500 gross profit in less than a year. Who advised that buyer? Paid full asking price too. Yes, there are some deals to be had and that's why a smart investor is going to begin buying on the ebb. Most RECENT data indicates an appreciable increase in pending sales over the last 11 days which a smart investor will track. Is it time to buy? Too early to tell but should certainly be watching data other than the county appraiser's office.
So, did the buyers on lot 64 and 66 overpay too at $780k and $795k respectively. Maybe you should have been advising them that they overpaid too. Seems like the market at the time for those lots was in the $800k plus range if numerous people bought. The sellers made nice profits but there were willing buyers for three identical lots. Now there are 5 adjacent lots listed for between $595k and $679k. And, noone is biting. So, what is the market? Did it fall in this particular area of Watersound? Also, there were many, many other lots within spitting distance that sold for $850k to $950k around the same time. Sure looks like the market has fallen to me. But, I'm not a realtor like you so I guess I can't spot trends as they are happening.
Is anybody buying? Here's the numbers of 30A lots that went under contract this year. Seems we might be seeing the first signs of an uptrend or it could be short term inmigration - too early to tell.
Jan - 93
Feb - 92
March - 93
April - 64
May - 50
June - 42
July - 24
August - 25
Sept - 1st 11 days - 16 ( if it stays the same this month, that would be 43 this month which is interesting)
Homes on 30A:
Jan - 40
Feb - 38
March- 53
April - 44
May - 33
June - 37
July - 18
August - 13
Sept - 1st 11 days - 6 (which means if it stays the same for the rest of the month, they'll be 30 going under contract in Sept)
The trend in June and July looks really bad, but it is encouraging to see a slight uptick. Believe it or not, I hope it is the beginning of a new groundswell of buyers.
Yes, the lot is $450 but it's significantly smaller than the one that sold for $585K in 4/05. Also, it has to start construction by end of 06. The other doesn't have to until end of 07. You need to compare apples to apples with "specific" data. Also, I had several people registered for Phase IV but when we saw the location they pulled out. Many people bought Watercolor to flip. I live on 30A so I have no problem holding my property for more than a few months. I've flipped but you can't always make $200K in 2 months.
The similar lots next door, 3 lots down, 5 lots down and 6 lots down sold for $565k to $635k. These are apples to apples and the $450k lot has 15 months to BEGIN buildout. PLENTY of time to get a plan through the DRB and hire a builder. You only need to begin moving dirt by the buildout date to avoid penalties (and by the way, St Joe is not doing much in the way of enforcing penalties).
No doubt, Joe did a great job of marketing. People see the pretty ads in Atlanta, call the office and buy. Watercolor is a beautiful project but buyers who go straight to the developer aren't going to be exposed to anything but the developer's community. I've got a lot listed right now, large enough to put a house, pool AND carriage house on - only 5 lots from the water in front of Phase IV for just about $550. Lets see...$450 for a tram to the beach or $550 for a view and quick walk. As a resident and long-term investor, I would so much rather be there. As a "flipper", don't know what I'd choose to be honest.
I know lots of people that bought in Watercolor and none of them are country bumpkins that called the office and bought based on pretty pictures. These people paid the going market prices at the time and now it looks like they overpaid (your quote) only BECAUSE prices are now falling. NOT because they actually overpaid at the time. Saying that someone overpaid when the market was demanding those prices due to tight supply is ludicrous. Hindsight is 20/20.
Yes and no. The county has more comprehensive data because they have sales that were not listed in the MLS. The county data appears to be about 2 months behind so if you want CURRENT data, the MLS is the only place to go. Also, the county data is too cumbersome to extract the data and there's no history on the sale to understand the dynamics of the sale.
As you can tell, the data extraction is not so cumbersome that a bozo like me can't do it.
These are isolated, abberant facts that I hope are not intended to scare people. Any trend analysis MUST include averages and means. I can site as many people who have overpaid as those who have sold too low. People die, people get divorced, people's incomes drop (like pilots). One or two people who make poor or desperate decisions does not dictate a market.
Averages and means make no sense without more facts like square feet, proximity to ocean, location, etc, etc. Specific data supplements and confirms or denies the general nature of your data.
MOST of these sellers will make money. I have a buyer who went under contract on a house for $889K in 4/05. It just appraised at $1,099,000 and that appreciation was over the "bubble explosion" that you seem to be portraying.
Since when did an appraisal mean you actually made money on a home. I can give you dozens and dozens of examples of homes, land, buildings, etc. that never sold for close to the appraised amount. Good luck to the recent buyer if they actually try to put the house on the market and sell it for $1099000.
In response to your responses--
You're data is outdated. Lot 61 is listed for $595. Started at $799, dropped it to $650K. It went under contract in 10 days and busted. Relisted for $595K
And, your point is what. That I was right that prices are falling.
Lot 63 way overpaid. The seller made $582,500 gross profit in less than a year. Who advised that buyer? Paid full asking price too. Yes, there are some deals to be had and that's why a smart investor is going to begin buying on the ebb. Most RECENT data indicates an appreciable increase in pending sales over the last 11 days which a smart investor will track. Is it time to buy? Too early to tell but should certainly be watching data other than the county appraiser's office.
So, did the buyers on lot 64 and 66 overpay too at $780k and $795k respectively. Maybe you should have been advising them that they overpaid too. Seems like the market at the time for those lots was in the $800k plus range if numerous people bought. The sellers made nice profits but there were willing buyers for three identical lots. Now there are 5 adjacent lots listed for between $595k and $679k. And, noone is biting. So, what is the market? Did it fall in this particular area of Watersound? Also, there were many, many other lots within spitting distance that sold for $850k to $950k around the same time. Sure looks like the market has fallen to me. But, I'm not a realtor like you so I guess I can't spot trends as they are happening.
Is anybody buying? Here's the numbers of 30A lots that went under contract this year. Seems we might be seeing the first signs of an uptrend or it could be short term inmigration - too early to tell.
Jan - 93
Feb - 92
March - 93
April - 64
May - 50
June - 42
July - 24
August - 25
Sept - 1st 11 days - 16 ( if it stays the same this month, that would be 43 this month which is interesting)
Homes on 30A:
Jan - 40
Feb - 38
March- 53
April - 44
May - 33
June - 37
July - 18
August - 13
Sept - 1st 11 days - 6 (which means if it stays the same for the rest of the month, they'll be 30 going under contract in Sept)
The trend in June and July looks really bad, but it is encouraging to see a slight uptick. Believe it or not, I hope it is the beginning of a new groundswell of buyers.
Yes, the lot is $450 but it's significantly smaller than the one that sold for $585K in 4/05. Also, it has to start construction by end of 06. The other doesn't have to until end of 07. You need to compare apples to apples with "specific" data. Also, I had several people registered for Phase IV but when we saw the location they pulled out. Many people bought Watercolor to flip. I live on 30A so I have no problem holding my property for more than a few months. I've flipped but you can't always make $200K in 2 months.
The similar lots next door, 3 lots down, 5 lots down and 6 lots down sold for $565k to $635k. These are apples to apples and the $450k lot has 15 months to BEGIN buildout. PLENTY of time to get a plan through the DRB and hire a builder. You only need to begin moving dirt by the buildout date to avoid penalties (and by the way, St Joe is not doing much in the way of enforcing penalties).
No doubt, Joe did a great job of marketing. People see the pretty ads in Atlanta, call the office and buy. Watercolor is a beautiful project but buyers who go straight to the developer aren't going to be exposed to anything but the developer's community. I've got a lot listed right now, large enough to put a house, pool AND carriage house on - only 5 lots from the water in front of Phase IV for just about $550. Lets see...$450 for a tram to the beach or $550 for a view and quick walk. As a resident and long-term investor, I would so much rather be there. As a "flipper", don't know what I'd choose to be honest.
I know lots of people that bought in Watercolor and none of them are country bumpkins that called the office and bought based on pretty pictures. These people paid the going market prices at the time and now it looks like they overpaid (your quote) only BECAUSE prices are now falling. NOT because they actually overpaid at the time. Saying that someone overpaid when the market was demanding those prices due to tight supply is ludicrous. Hindsight is 20/20.
Yes and no. The county has more comprehensive data because they have sales that were not listed in the MLS. The county data appears to be about 2 months behind so if you want CURRENT data, the MLS is the only place to go. Also, the county data is too cumbersome to extract the data and there's no history on the sale to understand the dynamics of the sale.
As you can tell, the data extraction is not so cumbersome that a bozo like me can't do it.
These are isolated, abberant facts that I hope are not intended to scare people. Any trend analysis MUST include averages and means. I can site as many people who have overpaid as those who have sold too low. People die, people get divorced, people's incomes drop (like pilots). One or two people who make poor or desperate decisions does not dictate a market.
Averages and means make no sense without more facts like square feet, proximity to ocean, location, etc, etc. Specific data supplements and confirms or denies the general nature of your data.
MOST of these sellers will make money. I have a buyer who went under contract on a house for $889K in 4/05. It just appraised at $1,099,000 and that appreciation was over the "bubble explosion" that you seem to be portraying.
Since when did an appraisal mean you actually made money on a home. I can give you dozens and dozens of examples of homes, land, buildings, etc. that never sold for close to the appraised amount. Good luck to the recent buyer if they actually try to put the house on the market and sell it for $1099000.
Edited
Beach Lover
Could it be that the market was undervalued in 2004?
directionally challenged
Cork,
You forgot to mention Rosemary in your previous comparisons. According to the Walton County records there were 50 closings of IMPROVED properties from 1/1/04 to 7/31/04. From 1/1/05 to 7/31/05 there were only 19. Also, the available inventory has at least tripled since last year. Not sure of the average price, but it appears that the average price did increase but so did the average size of the house sold. So, I'm not sure how the average price per square foot changed.
Skier, the MLS shows 23 closed sales 1/05-7/31/05 in Rosemary of improved property. This doesn't include FSBOS or hip pockets as your figures in 2004 do. I checked about 8 listings the other night that sold in July 05 against the county records and only 1 was entered at the appraiser's office. If your going to use the county database to compare, you really need to wait until the data is entered for this year to be accurate.
SoWal Expert
Edited
directionally challenged
C on the O :clap_1:
You make good points.
I worked in statistics for a brief period (in NO WAY claim to be expert!) and it drives me crazy to read posts that pick examples of a property or two and argue the market from those. :roll: It's just not statistically sound.
Hi Rita,
Welcome to South Walton and it's good to have someone who understands statistics and how they work. I don't purport to be an expert in anything . Just have a passion and knack for some things which fascinate me. You've stated my sentiments perfectly. The area is stable in the long run. It may have a period of correction which has been needed but we are still showing strong appreciation. NAR's newsletter this week stated that single family homes in Florida have increased 8.75% annually since 2001. This is 2004 data and of course averaged over the 3 year period. 30 A homes increased about 40% in the last year. I think that will drop over the next year but I'll be surprised if we don't have 18-20%. Who knows.
Uof F just published their report on the Florida market which is 90 pages. If I ever get the time to read through it will post their predictions.
directionally challenged
Joe,
Where's the puker icon. I need it! :roll:
Where's the puker icon. I need it! :roll:
directionally challenged
Cork,
So, did the buyers on lot 64 and 66 overpay too at $780k and $795k respectively. Maybe you should have been advising them that they overpaid too. Saying that someone overpaid when the market was demanding those prices due to tight supply is ludicrous. Hindsight is 20/20. If you are honest with yourself, you know that you would have sold any of those lots to someone that wanted one at the time without telling them they were overpaying.
OK Guys, start pouring the guiness or bass ale in my case. Gotta respond to this one.
I can only say, Skier, that you don't know me and have no right or basis to tell me what I would do in a situation. I'm not a car salesman. I'm not in real estate because I can't do anything else. I have 9 yrs of higher education, a professional degree in pharmacy and 11 years as an investigator.
I'm not gonna starve if somebody doesn't sign a contract and I don't need the money bad enough to allow someone to pay more than something is worth without advising them accordingly. I have, in fact advised many people that properties were priced to high. I've also advised them to walk if I felt the deal would put them at risk. I don't come from money. I worked my way through college as a single parent and nothing has ever been given to me. $100K is still a lot of money to me and a lot of people and I know that real estate purchases are some of the biggest decisions of people's life.
My experience has been that when someone believes others will be unethical it's because they lack ethics and believe others will act like them. I live by the golden rule, am thankful for what I have and good comes to me. Perhaps that's why I'm not cynical.
As you can tell, the data extraction is not so cumbersome that a bozo like me can't do it.
Edited
margarita brocolia
Jeez Loueez! Look what I woke up to! This Thread is a MESS!
Popcorn all over, SJ musta spilled his guiness, and someone puked on a post! Looks like some LUI going on here.
That's it you BOZOS! Get back to the LOUNGE!
(Camp Creek Kid will clear her schedule for a 10:00 o'clock group therapy session.)
By the way CORK, I like the Bozo icon!
Popcorn all over, SJ musta spilled his guiness, and someone puked on a post! Looks like some LUI going on here.
That's it you BOZOS! Get back to the LOUNGE! (Camp Creek Kid will clear her schedule for a 10:00 o'clock group therapy session.)
By the way CORK, I like the Bozo icon!
Meow
SJ and RO are just chompin' at the bit for "The Great Statistics Debate" to begin.......first up is......
skier!!!!! Or was that skeiirereer? No, it is skier.....
Meow
And next up is Cork....the puking has stopped for the moment....SJ has popcorn in his teeth and Guiness down his chin, RO has fallen asleep....and wait, Rita has come in with a late breaking request..."MOVE IT TO THE LOUNGE!!!!!!" She also announces that CCK, our resident therapist, will be available for all those that have lost their shirts buying property in SoWal.
Edited
got any pics?
Morning kids ...SoWal Expert
The puker is under the "more" button found in the smilie section.
Joe,
Where's the puker icon. I need it! :roll:
Beach Comber
Skier's persistent negative comments and personal attacks continue to make me question whether he really is an owner in WaterColor
Once again I will ask........what others have asked for in the past.....what is your property address or MLS listing number to indeed prove you are an owner?
If you continue to avoid this question.....maybe we should start guessing which property Skier owns. He has already given us a few hints
- it is in WaterColor
- it is a stones throw from the beach....so must be cottage district
- it is not listed by St. Joe.
- it has been for sale for some time at too high of a price
Do you care to answer the question....or would others like to list additional hints he has given in the past?
Doug
Once again I will ask........what others have asked for in the past.....what is your property address or MLS listing number to indeed prove you are an owner?
If you continue to avoid this question.....maybe we should start guessing which property Skier owns. He has already given us a few hints
- it is in WaterColor
- it is a stones throw from the beach....so must be cottage district
- it is not listed by St. Joe.
- it has been for sale for some time at too high of a price
Do you care to answer the question....or would others like to list additional hints he has given in the past?
Doug
Edited
Beach Lover
I can only say, Skier, that you don't know me and have no right or basis to tell me what I would do in a situation. I'm not a car salesman. I'm not in real estate because I can't do anything else.
Cork,
You are absolutely right. I was wrong to imply what I did. Disagreeing about trends, etc is one thing, its another to say the things I did. I bet you are a very thoughtful, considerate and upstanding woman or man. My comments were way out of line and I am ashamed of putting those particular words on "paper". I will edit them out of my message so as not to offend you in front of any folks that read the post in the future.
I sincerely apologize.
Cork,
You are absolutely right. I was wrong to imply what I did. Disagreeing about trends, etc is one thing, its another to say the things I did. I bet you are a very thoughtful, considerate and upstanding woman or man. My comments were way out of line and I am ashamed of putting those particular words on "paper". I will edit them out of my message so as not to offend you in front of any folks that read the post in the future.
I sincerely apologize.
got any pics?
Christini Zambini
Jeez Loueez! Look what I woke up to! This Thread is a MESS!
Popcorn all over, SJ musta spilled his guiness, and someone puked on a post! Looks like some LUI going on here.
(Camp Creek Kid will clear her schedule for a 10:00 o'clock group therapy session.)
By the way CORK, I like the Bozo icon!
Umm, Rita and Sueshore--I'm a little concerned about your addiction to SoWal.com. What were you two Texans doing up before the crack of dawn--I mean WAY before the crack of dawn? Sounds like you need a vacation
. As for a group therapy session, here is what I prescribe: Tea time at Grayton (driving on the beach is left to your discretion, but NO walking on the dunes)in October (bad month, I know) on an evening of a picture-perfect sunset (for kurt) while kathydwells and Landlocked entertain us with their comedy routine. Following that, PhPhay (where is she) can rap us a few songs. We must have a permitted campfire on the beach (October nights are cold!!! ;-) ) while Smiling JOe imparts his philosophy of life and katie blue sings all our troubles away. BANNED is any talk of real estate and/or sales prices, Gulf Trace, hurricanes, biting flies, white shirts, photos IN the dunes, or anyone wearing a thong (sorry River Otter).
And skier, you ARE invited
.Edited
got any pics?
As for a group therapy session, here is what I prescribe: Tea time at Grayton (driving on the beach is left to your discretion, but NO walking on the dunes)in October (bad month, I know) on an evening of a picture-perfect sunset (for kurt) while kathydwells and Landlocked entertain us with their comedy routine. Following that, PhPhay (where is she) can rap us a few songs. We must have a permitted campfire on the beach (October nights are cold!!! ;-) ) while Smiling JOe imparts his philosophy of life and katie blue sings all our troubles away. BANNED is any talk of real estate and/or sales prices, Gulf Trace, hurricanes, biting flies, white shirts, photos IN the dunes, or anyone wearing a thong (sorry River Otter).
And skier, you ARE invited
Can we do it this weekend
Moonrise is this weekend I'll leave my thong at home margarita brocolia
I can only say, Skier, that you don't know me and have no right or basis to tell me what I would do in a situation. I'm not a car salesman. I'm not in real estate because I can't do anything else.
Cork,
You are absolutely right. I was wrong to imply what I did. Disagreeing about trends, etc is one thing, its another to say the things I did. I bet you are a very thoughtful, considerate and upstanding woman or man. My comments were way out of line and I am ashamed of putting those particular words on "paper". I will edit them out of my message so as not to offend you in front of any folks that read the post in the future.
I sincerely apologize.
Good post Skier! Others of us have also said things we probably shouldn't have (me included), as they do not progress the debate.
I feel the debate is pretty much dead. Don't we all know where each other stands and at this point some of our opinions may have been changed and others won't no matter how much harping continues.
When you read through the posts here and on a previous thread, it seems that we're not that far apart in several of the basic ideas. Where some seem to be further apart is in the degree of the downturn and how much damage it will do to RE sales.
There seems to be general agreement that "flippers" are the ones to get hurt the most and long-termers remain in good shape and that a number of people put their homes on the market at overly high prices skewing the market. (Some may have gotten lucky and sold.) And I see agreement in that there may be some temporary overbuilding. I'm gleening this from posts, not any facts I've research because frankly, it doesn't interest me enough to research more than what you guys throw out. And as someone posted, gotta take some of that with a grain of salt.
In recent posts you have come around to stating some of the many variables that enter into the pricing (or should enter into the pricing). This was encouraging to see.
Many of us have learned from these threads BUT I think it's mostly all been said now.
Truce!
Meow
Umm, Rita and Sueshore--I'm a little concerned about your addiction to SoWal.com. What were you two Texans doing up before the crack of dawn--I mean WAY before the crack of dawn? Sounds like you need a vacation
As for a group therapy session, here is what I prescribe: Tea time at Grayton (driving on the beach is left to your discretion, but NO walking on the dunes)in October (bad month, I know) on an evening of a picture-perfect sunset (for kurt) while kathydwells and Landlocked entertain us with their comedy routine. Following that, PhPhay (where is she) can rap us a few songs. We must have a permitted campfire on the beach (October nights are cold!!! ;-) ) while Smiling JOe imparts his philosophy of life and katie blue sings all our troubles away. BANNED is any talk of real estate and/or sales prices, Gulf Trace, hurricanes, biting flies, white shirts, photos IN the dunes, or anyone wearing a thong (sorry River Otter).
And skier, you ARE invited
And that is why CCK is our therapist!!! As far as my early posting....is there a menopausal smilie RO? I have actually started taking 3 mg of slow release Melatonin and it is working! Used to get up 3:00 - 4:00 am, now it's 5:00 - 5:45 am!!!! The mental picture of this group gathering is so tender! This is one of our better tangents...don't you agree?
margarita brocolia
Umm, Rita and Sueshore--I'm a little concerned about your addiction to SoWal.com. What were you two Texans doing up before the crack of dawn--I mean WAY before the crack of dawn? Sounds like you need a vacation
You see, I was lying in bed and couldn't get that silly Bozo icon out of my head, plus the beer-drinking, popcorn-eating computer potatoes waiting for the next blow. So I just had to get up and post the attempt at humor that was running through my head before I forgot it! Went right back to sleep after that though. ;-)
directionally challenged
That's why I love this group. 
Kinda like family
Skier, you are true gentleman or gentlelady. Thank you and if I've written anything to offend you, of course I apologize. It's not my intention EVER.
Rita, agree with you. Sometimes we need to agree to disagree and just see how it shakes out in the end so I'm putting this one to bed as well.
The thread was quite amusing though, wasn't it. Joe started it with popcorn and the punching gloves (saw that before you edited it). I found the puker icon and learned how to find the bozo icon so all in all, it was good for me. Many more cute icons to come from me now that I've found them.
Kinda like familySkier, you are true gentleman or gentlelady. Thank you and if I've written anything to offend you, of course I apologize. It's not my intention EVER.
Rita, agree with you. Sometimes we need to agree to disagree and just see how it shakes out in the end so I'm putting this one to bed as well.
The thread was quite amusing though, wasn't it. Joe started it with popcorn and the punching gloves (saw that before you edited it). I found the puker icon and learned how to find the bozo icon so all in all, it was good for me. Many more cute icons to come from me now that I've found them.
got any pics?
As far as my early posting....is there a menopausal smilie RO?
:scratch: ... Could use this
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